WI:The Austrians win the war of 1866

What might have happened if the Austrians and their German allies defeated the Prussians and their German and Italian allies? There could be various factors that might effected this, perhaps the French support the Austrians, maybe the Austrians not the Prussians are equipped with the needle gun, maybe the Prussians fail to combine their forces soon after the battle of Langensalza, due to heavy rain say, leading to a Prussian defeat in Hannover, maybe a stray shot hits Moltke killing him early in the war. But what ever the POD is the Austrian alliance wins the war, the Prussian not Austrian lead coalition is shattered, Austria keeps its Italian provinces, at least for a time. How does this effect history?
 

Perkeo

Banned
1) Germany isn't dominated by Prussia - Prussia is stripped of the Rhine province and may even leave the German confederation (which won't be dissolved). Austria won't unify either since her attitude towards the nation state is the exact opposite to Prussia's.
2) The four remaining kingdoms Bavaria, Württemberg, Hannover and Saxony might follow a three or four state solution - either unite all smaller German states or create a noth and south German state in addition to Prussia and Austria.
3) The Franco-Prussian war is not necessarily prevented. Napoleon may have less reason to see a Prussia-led German unification as a thread but all the more to see a not unified Germany as a tempting target. So the scenario: French aggression -> France looses against an alliance of all German states -> unification is all but implausible with or without Prussia.
 

Anderman

Donor
Most likely there will be no Ausgleich that transformed the Austrian Empire into the dual monarchy of Austria-Hungary.
 
Austro-Prussian War seems the more well known name of the war, though I suppose there wasn't that much room left in the title. Anyways, liable to be some territorial changed. The Austrians respected the loyalty of the Saxons, so depending on how badly things do, they may want prussian Saxony back. Might be too large an area, and if so they still get some portions of it, with either Saxony or Bavaria annexing Saxe-Altenburg. This is all assuming that the Austrians and their allies do what the Prussians did. The Prussians basically annexing everythign that wasn'ta kingdom. Exlcuding Hanover. Speaking of, Hanover Snaks Brunswick (helpfully bringing thir own lands together and further seperating the Prussian areas), while some regime change in Oldenburg gets some new guy there,
Bavaria might want to grab the bit of Oldeburg near the Palatine, though they would be even happier having a brother or second son in charge of the Prussian Province of Jülich-Cleves-Berg. Nassau and the two Hesses sswallow up portions of the Prussian Rhineland while possible giving a couple extra villages to their small allies who are principalities or city-states. Ahh, and of course Austria will want Silesia and if they are on a roll might keep pushing until they have it.
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Most likely no German unification in 1871, and at best a North German Confederation dominated by Prussia, with maybe a south German equivalent dominated by Austria.

It depends on the manner of the Prussia defeat - the Austrians are going to want Silesia. That would majorly weaken Prussia.

In any case, the Great War as we know it is gone, and butterflies beyond.
 
Most likely no German unification in 1871, and at best a North German Confederation dominated by Prussia, with maybe a south German equivalent dominated by Austria.

It depends on the manner of the Prussia defeat - the Austrians are going to want Silesia. That would majorly weaken Prussia.

In any case, the Great War as we know it is gone, and butterflies beyond.
Still, having the German Confederation split this way basically means the Prussians did what they did at the end of the war, minus them also annexing Hesse, Schleswig, Hanover, etc.
 
Plus Wurttemburg, Baden, Bavaria...

So instead of being the dominant power in Europe, Prussia is just another power about as strong as Austria or France.
 
Plus Wurttemburg, Baden, Bavaria...

So instead of being the dominant power in Europe, Prussia is just another power about as strong as Austria or France.
I meant directly annex. They annexed those states plus Nassau and some smaller places, then made a North German Confederation locking the Saxons and others into place. Took another war in which those states were allies them to get the South Germans in on their side. And whether or not they are as powerful as Austria depends in part on what land they lose in the Rhineland and Silesia and if they are locked out of any economic unoin with the rest of the German states. France is going to be a bit out of their league.

Come to think of it though, I wonder which German states will fight well enough to be deemed deserving of expansion or support. In the IOTL Austria-Prussian War, the Saxons fought hard and left their land to support the Austrian army, and thus the Austrians demanded they not be annexed to Prussia. Might be the Prussians try to weasel their way out without giving away too much or while annexing some small areas. And I do wonder how things will go with the French, Savoys, and Pope over in Italy.
 
I meant directly annex. They annexed those states plus Nassau and some smaller places, then made a North German Confederation locking the Saxons and others into place. Took another war in which those states were allies them to get the South Germans in on their side. And whether or not they are as powerful as Austria depends in part on what land they lose in the Rhineland and Silesia and if they are locked out of any economic unoin with the rest of the German states. France is going to be a bit out of their league.

Come to think of it though, I wonder which German states will fight well enough to be deemed deserving of expansion or support. In the IOTL Austria-Prussian War, the Saxons fought hard and left their land to support the Austrian army, and thus the Austrians demanded they not be annexed to Prussia. Might be the Prussians try to weasel their way out without giving away too much or while annexing some small areas. And I do wonder how things will go with the French, Savoys, and Pope over in Italy.


Austria had already promised to surrender Venetia, presumably intending to take Silesia in lieu. Of course, FJ may try to renege, but that would risk war with France and Italy.

Previous diplomatic exchanges with France had contemplated a neutral state on the Rhine - ruler unspecified. This would presumably be carved out of Prussia's Rhenish provinces. Also accessions of territory for Bavaria and the other "middling" states - again unspecified but probably Saxony goes back to its 1813 borders.

France was agreeable to any Austrian gains which did not "threaten the European balance of power", ie the Habsburgs could acquire territories in Germany roughly equal to those they had lost in Italy since 1859.
 
There actually were some agreements between Austrians and Napoleon. I think, that in case of more severe defeat of Prussia, terms would be like: Silesia definitely to A., Westphalia as independent state under some Hapsburg (most likely from toscanian branch). Return of at least some territories to Saxony, maybe some annexations of smaller states allied with Prussia and some gains for Wittelsbachs (Holstein? or maybe both Elbe duchies should go back to Denmark...) And probably some, at least small, "compensation" for Nappy (Saarland? Luxembourg?)
 
But would Austria really offer Veneto to Italy (through Napoleon III) in a situation where they win at Sadowa (or thereabout)? The Italians had been defeated at Custoza and devastated at Lissa and did not have much chances toattack again against Austrian opposition. In otl the offer was made the day after the defeat at Sadowa, not before.
 
Austria has so many geopolitical challenges (always worried about France, Russia, Italy, Hungary) that I can't imagine they can capitalize on their victory without some alliance/compromise with another power. Which is fine. They didn't want to unify Germany so much as to prevent Prussia from doing it.

Scenario #1: Easy Peace with Prussia: The Confederation is restored with some kind of 1863 type governance, Schleswig-Holstein becomes a member state under Augustenburg and Austria is integrated into an advantageous customs union with the rest of Germany. This keeps France out, calms Russia. This might allow room for Austria to renege on ceding Venetia.

Scenario #2: Cooperation with France: The Rhineland State(s) described above come into existence. Maybe under the houses of Este, Habsburg and Bourbon-Parma. Venice is ceded. The Confederation is restored with or without Prussia. Schleswig-Holstein is a member state as outlined above. Economic and political concessions are made to Austria. I don't see an annexation of Silesia. Russia would not allow this.

In both cases there is a Compromise with Hungary. it may be less generous, but there were moves afoot to solve the issue of Hungary prior to the 1866 war. So I think this snaps into place regardless.
 
Scenario #2: Cooperation with France: The Rhineland State(s) described above come into existence. Maybe under the houses of Este, Habsburg and Bourbon-Parma.

The fisrt two are quite likely. If Austria wants Nappy III's co-operation, I doubt if she'll support a Bourbon.
 
Scenario #2: Cooperation with France: The Rhineland State(s) described above come into existence. Maybe under the houses of Este, Habsburg and Bourbon-Parma. Venice is ceded. The Confederation is restored with or without Prussia. Schleswig-Holstein is a member state as outlined above. Economic and political concessions are made to Austria. I don't see an annexation of Silesia. Russia would not allow this.
We had a thread about this a while ago, and someone came up with the idea that the Rhineland could be unified under Wittelsbach leadership (since they are also Catholic), as France would not agree to it being ruled by the Habsburgs. Austria is of course not entirely happy, but this is a compromise they might accept, creating a "Third Germany" in the West, which is a good counterbalance to Prussia. Hanover might even form a fourth big German state, if Prussia is sufficiently weakened.
 
We had a thread about this a while ago, and someone came up with the idea that the Rhineland could be unified under Wittelsbach leadership (since they are also Catholic), as France would not agree to it being ruled by the Habsburgs. Austria is of course not entirely happy, but this is a compromise they might accept, creating a "Third Germany" in the West, which is a good counterbalance to Prussia. Hanover might even form a fourth big German state, if Prussia is sufficiently weakened.

These options are not necessarily incompatible.

The total population of Rhineland and Westphalia provinces greatly exceeds that of Tuscany and Modena combined. So it would be possible to give the deposed Grand Dukes about the same number of subjects as they had in Italy, while still leaving quite a bit over for the Wittelsbachs.
 
Does Hanover get steamrolled still? Georg V hesitated in OTL, trying to organise a neutral coalition before joining the Austrians. At the Battle of Langensalza, Hanoverian and Bavarian troops won a resounding victory on the field but it allowed other Prussian forces to cut off the Allies and led to their surrender, and Hanover's official surrender several days later. Had Georg immideatly joined the war (he was thoroughly anti-Prussian) he could put Berlin on the backfoot in the North-West, giving time for Hanover as well as smaller states like Kassel and Saxony to finish mobilisation and possibly link up, creating a serious threat to Prussia itself.

If Hanover is a major player in Austrian victory, I could easily see Georg gaining at least part of West Prussia and possibly consolidating influence over the Hansa cities and minors like Brunswick. If Hanover and Bavaria become dominant in the Confederation (Prussia no doubt having been kicked) you could see a cooperative military/economic alliance form within the group for mutual benefit and to ensure Prussia stays down. Or maybe the regional powers, divided by culture and religion, decide to split into Northern and Southern German Federations.

However if Hanover suffers a similar fate to OTL but Austria gains a minor victory, Prussia's annexation of Hanover might be accepted in return for giving up influence over the rest of Germany.
 
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