WI the assassination attempt on John Paul II had succeeded?

Gorbachev has undoubtly been the major trigger in ending the Cold War, but the first real fear of death for the Soviet Union has been the popal election of Karol Woytyla in 1978. Expect for some kind of a direct coup against the CP elite, a pope coming from a Warsaw Pact state has surely been the second-worst nightmare Moscow ever could imagine and, worse, even came true.

So there has also been an assassination attempt on the Pope by Ali Agca in Rome on May 13, 1981. The two first shots were relatively harmless, but the third one went just through the intestine. Karol survived the attempt, but what if he hadn't? I still believe that Moscow and some of its satellites orded Agca to actively switch off Karol.

The pope has already been to Poland to 1980 and the Solidarnosc movement was still in full swing and the state of war was first declared in December 1981. Would there have been uprisings in Poland after Karol's death? Earlier state of war in Poland or even direct Soviet intervention? Would the history of the Cold War follow alternate paths? And who had become the next pope?
 
I am aware of allegations and suspicions (and there may be something stronger) that the guy who tried to murder JPII was in some way linked to elements in the Soviet state.

Just how dangerous would that be with the mood in the US under Reagan?
 
One thing to remember was that when JPII was chosen in 1978, many bishops were relieved that the papacy did not go to a Latin-American cardinal who might, after enduring right wing regimes, side with those who thought communists might not be so bad if they left the churches alone.

Yes, Wojtyla was a threat to the expansion of communism. But in the long run, I don't think much would have changed in the late eighties and early nineties, because the USSR had a tough choice: open up to the information age or fall into third world status.
 
If JPII has been assassinated there certainly would have been conspiracy theories about Soviet involvement and such and tensions would rise. But in the end cooler heads would probably prevail. The most important question is who would become the next pope?
 
If JPII has been assassinated there certainly would have been conspiracy theories about Soviet involvement and such and tensions would rise. But in the end cooler heads would probably prevail. The most important question is who would become the next pope?

Probably yet another Italian (JPII had only been in office for four years - not enough to rock the boat). If this happens, expect a Papacy that's just "there", in the popular imagination. Certainly no Benedict XVI - without John Paul, poerhaps all he'd be would be a very good Archbishop of Munich and perhaps a respected theologian.

Another interesting question would concern Marcel Lefebvre and other "traditionalists". While Lefebvre and co. are not exactly viewed favorably by the ecclesial authorities, he's still within the church (albeit under the Church equivalent of a restraining order), and traditionalism in general is still a significant, but waning movement.
 
One thing to remember was that when JPII was chosen in 1978, many bishops were relieved that the papacy did not go to a Latin-American cardinal who might, after enduring right wing regimes, side with those who thought communists might not be so bad if they left the churches alone.

Yes, Wojtyla was a threat to the expansion of communism. But in the long run, I don't think much would have changed in the late eighties and early nineties, because the USSR had a tough choice: open up to the information age or fall into third world status.

They could just handle info they way China has with a degree of censorship still in place for some subjects but most stuff allowed.

Third world status was never on the cards for Russia even today.:rolleyes:
 
Top