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So, lets say that by some POD (Al Gore being president is the most obvious one, but I'm sure there are others that would work) the US does not invade Iraq in 2003. And lets further say that the low-key protests movement in Egypt continues to build, Mr. Bouzizi still sets himself on fire, and the Tunisian and Egyptian regimes fall.

How would Iraq be looking right now? I'm sure it would be seeing protests in some form, but what kind, and what degree of intensity? Would the opposition be as sectarian as the OTL post-Saddam politicians were? Would the Saddam regime go quickly like Mubarak, or (my guess) hang on for the moment, like Yemen or Syria?

Thoughts?
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