WI: The A-H Air Force kills Brusilov and the Tsar

On 12 April 1916, seven airplanes of the K.u.K. Luftfahrtruppen, led by Godwin von Brumowski, attacked and bombed a military review in the city of Chotin. Both the Tsar and Brusilov were present, but unharmed.

Let's day Brumowski and his fellow pilots get a little luck, and kill both the Tsar and Brusilov.

The Lake Naroch offensive has already petered out, but the Tsar had not yet been truly tied to military catastrophe, instead being killed in on the front (relatively speaking). Does this allow a more capable officer to lead the army, balancing the loss of it's most capable general?

Or instead might this give the Dual Monarchy a shot in the arm, sparing it the Brusilov offensive and giving it an entirely native symbolic victory?

Without the Brusilov offensive, and I'm fairly convinced that the successful version won't happen without him, I think the K.u.K. Armee will stay a cohesive force in the east, maybe even speeding up victory there. Certainly it stands to win against Italy if the military is still more or less intact when Russia breaks. However I dont see how the CP can win the west. If Italy is knocked out though, A-H is basically victorious on all fronts even if Germany starts crumbling.

Any thoughts?
 
I mean Alexi is Tsar but it might as well be Rasputin with the amount of power he’ll have over Alix and Alexi, especially since he’s been “the healer” who’s kept him alive. That’s why I titled him that way.
 
I mean Alexi is Tsar but it might as well be Rasputin with the amount of power he’ll have over Alix and Alexi, especially since he’s been “the healer” who’s kept him alive. That’s why I titled him that way.

Perhaps a revolution against him and Alix would follow that summer? Who’d take over army command in the meantime?
 

raharris1973

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I suppose being power behind the throne would be Rasputin's plan, but I also strongly suspect he will be murdered as the implications of Alexei's succession become clear.

So, in all likelihood, Rasputin is murdered soon, and a Romanov uncle is regent, if not Tsar.

If Rasputin stays alive and in influence, might he try to pull out of the war? He prophesied war was a bad idea in 1914? Again, I think if he tries to put his thumb on the scale in such an outrageous fashion he would meet resistance and be killed. But, this would be quite a mess.
 
Perhaps a revolution against him and Alix would follow that summer? Who’d take over army command in the meantime?
STAVKA chief of staff Mikhail Alekseyev will probably just keep doing his job until replaced.
 
I can't imagine Rasputin lasts long once the Tsar is gone. The Tsarina is also likely to lose a lot of power as her influence network is pretty minimal by this point when devoid of her husband as a patron/pawn. On the political side I'd imagine that Grand Duke Nicholas and Grand Duke Michael are likely to be major influences. Nicholas can return from the Caucasus pretty easily and has been to an extent redeemed by the military success there.
 

raharris1973

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I can't imagine Rasputin lasts long once the Tsar is gone. The Tsarina is also likely to lose a lot of power as her influence network is pretty minimal by this point when devoid of her husband as a patron/pawn. On the political side I'd imagine that Grand Duke Nicholas and Grand Duke Michael are likely to be major influences. Nicholas can return from the Caucasus pretty easily and has been to an extent redeemed by the military success there.

OK, fair enough, you're the OP and I basically agree with you.

What does this do to the longer term course of the war? How much of a chance do the Russian people and Army give the regency regime? Can Austria-Hungary ride its somewhat better 1916 into going the distance in WWI?
 
There is no way anyone except Mikhail will become regent for Alexei, and I expect he will make sure that Rasputin is kept as far away as possible from the young Tsar. Prying Rasputin away from Alexandra would be more difficult, however perhaps sending Rasputin to a distant place as a chaplain for troops could do that - we all must serve Mother Russia as best we can. Someplace far away and preferably also very dangerous. "The Tsar and the general staff are saddened to report the death of the Holy Monk Rasputin, fallen in battle while attending to the spiritual needs of pour troops." Needless to say the caliber of the bullet and the placement of the wound are not something that needs to be investigated or discussed.
 
The Russians have lost their most effective general. Mikhail, as regent for the Tsarevitch, is more popular personally and less toxic than Nicholas. The problem is the toxic stew that is Russia right now. The social fault lines won't get better with this change at the top, and the shambolic mess that the Russian military is - totally FUBAR logistics, corruption, an officer class of marginal skill in the main and usually contempt for the soldiers they lead, will Mikhail try to fix this, and even if he wants to how much can he do before it all hits the fan. IMHO things could be a little better for the Russians in some ways but not enough to change things. Simply removing Brusilov will probably mean the Russians do worse an A-H does better in the southwest front.

Russia could be forced out of the war sooner, Mikhail might, just might, decide to bail before things get too desperate and then extend the 1905 reforms. No matter what I don;t see Russia lasting longer in the war than it did, and it might be out even sooner. With less need for German troops to support the A-H forces in the east, they could do better in the west - more troops/resources for Michael. also perhaps getting food etc from ceded areas sooner. For A-H doing better in the east, and Russia possibly folding sooner could mean more resources for the Italian campaign although would that be enough to cause Italy to fold.

Politically - absolute monarchy is through in Russia. The butterflies here are going to be Mothra size, so you might see anything from some sort of constitutional monarchy to what you got OTL.
 
From what I've read the Tsar is still relatively popular at this point (or at least it hasn't gone over a cliff), so maybe his death reinforces war support instead in the short term, but long term removed one of the War party's stronger supporters and makes the monarchy less directly responsible. So in 1917 when the army breaks, the provisional government goes constititonal monarchy and just forces the regent's resignation. This leads it to keeping more conservative and hardliner support as the country drifts closer to the, in my view basically inevitable, civil war. Maybe even enabling a more vibrant/coherant white government and white victory
 
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