Advance of the seige train
http://www.national-army-museum.ac.uk/exhibitions/indiaRising/page4.shtml
WI: The 4th Crusade was actually a Crusade?
- Thread starter Ioannes
- Start date
A likelier PoD:
In OTL, the Crusader ambassadors grossly overestimated the army that would show up. They contracted for ships to carry 33 500 men at 2 marks and 4500 horses at 4 marks, total 85 000 marks. In the event, roughly 11 000 men showed up. They sailed in more spacious conditions on ships which could have carried 17 000 men and 3000 horses - the rest was left behind. At great effort, they could scrape together 51 000 marks, so the Venetians had to find something profitable to do with them.
Suppose that the ambassadors offer a more realistic estimate of 17 000 men and 3000 horses. The Venetians do contract at the agreed rates, for 46 000 marks. It is still overestimated, because the same 11 000 men show up as per OTL, but modest overestimate rather than gross overestimate, and at some hardship these 11 000 men scrape together 46 000 marks as they did in OTL.
The navy is paid and the crusade sails for Egypt as planned. No direct effect on Byzantium.
What next?
OK, now that a little misunderstanding has been cleared up, I can post Pt 1 of this. The question of the effects of this POD on the Fifth Crusade is actually more important than I originally thought, since in OTL the movement of forces to Egypt depended on an alliance with the Seljuks. No Seljuks no alliance. The Empire has less than zero interest in fighting the Ayyubids this soon after a devastating war which results in the army being seriously overstretched to defend the gains they already have. So I've had the Armenian Kingdom of Cilicia step up. Without the Seljuks pushing in on them, the Armenians are a lot more secure, which could lead to a more aggressive foreign policy. I'm presuming basically positive relations with the Empire -- most likely the King formally acknowledges the notional supremacy of the Emperor.
"The Doge is dead. The Greek Prince will not last the night. It is disaster."
One disaster after another. The Venetians were sure to leave now, leaving the Crusade stranded without a fleet. The prince they had been promised would be welcomed by grateful throngs had been rejected by his alleged subjects and was burning up with fever, shaking like a leaf. And the common soldiers were listening to the crazed hermit that had been preaching that repentance and submission to God's Vice Regent on Earth was the only cure for the disease running through the camp. Boniface of Montferrat had succumbed early, as had Baldwin of Flanders, and with Enrique Dandolo dead now, the army could not be held together. It was up to him, Louis of Blois, to find a solution. He looked around the council of second-rank leaders who had replaced the great men who had guided the Crusade until now. He marked the sign of fever in the eyes of a few, and defeat in the rest.
There was a heavy silence. "We have few choices now. The Venetian ships will leave soon." A sharp nod from the Venetian captain who was the senior leader of that city's fleet. "This pestilence is destroying us, and the soldiers believe God has forsaken them for our sins. At this point I am ready to agree." No one argued. "I am ready to send for the hermit. Perhaps he can keep the soldiers from mutiny while we extricate ourselves from this disaster. In the morning, I will send heralds to the Greeks to speak to them of our return to our homes. We have failed."
The meeting was broken up by shouting outside. Those who heard it had no doubt of what it meant. The men had discovered the Doge was dead.
In the morning, Louis finally admitted to himself that he had lost control of the situation entirely. Not only had the men discovered the Doge was dead, but some treacherous servant had let that damnable hermit into his private tent. Into his private papers. Within an hour or less, the entire army knew they had been excommunicated for the attacks on Zara and Constantinople. Only quick thought, the claim that Dandolo had lied to him as well, and loyal men with drawn swords prevented a mob from murdering the members of the army council. Order was restored with daylight, but only the admission of Petros to the ranks of the council had permitted this. The Greek prince Alexius had indeed died in the confusion. Petros promised the men, on behalf of the council, that they would have a chance to earn pardon for all misdeeds they had been led into by treacherous leaders. With the council, he was blunt, almost demanding. Unfortunately, Louis saw no alternative that would not have the army rioting out of control again. At least everything could be blamed on the dead leaders. Peter insisted that the fleet begin ferrying the army across the strait again, and men were leaving behind their plunder, derisively referred to as the 'wages of sin' by the monk. On the other shore, a new camp was being prepared as a base for the new direction of campaign.
Early June 1203 – Disease sweeps the assembled Crusader army, killing Enrique Dandolo, Boniface, and Alexius IV, throwing the Army into confusion. A hermit, Peter, appears, preaching that this is retribution for attacking fellow Christians. The letters sent to Dandolo from the Pope fulminating against his attack on Zara are published in the army. A council of nobles is set up to command the Army with Peter’s advice and with the mandate to swiftly remove the Crusaders from Constantinople’s environs and strike against “the infidels” as swiftly as possible. Nearly simultaneously, Theodore Lascaris, with the support of the Varangians and other soldiers in the City, moves to arrest and blind Alexius III, tonsure him as a monk, and smuggles him out to the Crimea in the dead of night. Isaac II also takes monastic vows and is removed to a small rock in the Aegean.
July 1203 – The disease abates as the Crusaders are shuttled over the straits of Mamara. Peter’s advice is a mixture of the immensely practical, about latrine placement and sleeping arrangements, and spiritual.
August 1203 – Shadowed and supported by Cuman and Pecheneg mercenaries in Roman pay, the Crusaders meet the Seljuk army hurriedly gathered to meet them. Spurred on by renewed religious fervor and with some unexpectedly practical advice from Peter, the Crusaders are victorious in a series of pitched battles. In a bid to maintain the favor of God, the Crusaders return conquered cities to Roman rule.
"My Brothers!" the Emperor began. Four years ago that would be unthinkable, but four years of constant fighting alongside the Franks had rendered them not only less alien, but brothers indeed. "We have won great victories. We have swept the Turk from lands which have not been ruled by Christians in a century. We have done this, not seperately as Roman and Frank, but as fellow soldiers of Christ, fellow Christians, fellow warriors. We have shed blood together, suffered greatly together, and at last have come to stand together against the Saracen as invincible through the power of the life-giving Cross and by the blessings of the Saints. Now we have overthrown a great power of the infidels, and it is fitting that as our brothers in arms, we should reward your steadfast faith and valor. So We lay before you three choices. Know that however each of you chooses, you shall ever after be honored as a citizen of Our Empire, to be treated as such should you ever return, for your blood shed on Roman soil alongside Roman blood has made you more worthy to be counted as such than many who enjoy the pleasures of the City without striving for its defense."
"The first choice before you is to become one of us. We will have need of strong warriors to defend Our lands, and strong men to raise up sons to defend our lands. We can think of nothing better than for you to live among us. Each man who chooses this path shall be given lands commensurate with his rank, in order to maintain himself properly.
"On the other hand, some of you may wish to return to your homeland. We pledge that none shall leave without gold commensurate to the great services rendered, and We shall pay passage and hire the ships to return you. Or, should you wish it, the Frankish Kingdom of Jerusalem has need of fighting men, and We shall hire ships to take you there and give you gold to sustain yourselves for a time."
1207 – Last vestiges of the Sultanate of Rum is overrun by Crusaders, now with Roman regulars fighting alongside the Crusader army. The Emperor Theodore Lascaris offers the Crusaders three choices – to swear fealty and receive grants of Roman land, transportation back to the West with gifts of gold, taken from the Imperial share of the plunder of the Turks, as their reward for pious and valiant deeds, or transportation to the Kingdom of Jerusalem to continue to serve God there. Roughly half of the nobles and two thirds of the lesser warriors choose to stay in the Empire. Peter retires to a monastery in Thrace, claiming his mandate from God was complete.
1207-1220: A period of largely peaceful reorganization of the Empire. A short, sharp war absorbed the Mengucek Beylik. Administration of Anatolia was organized from the ground up, and much of the recovered territory had to be repopulated. Some numbers of Turks were accepted, most of whom converted to Christianity. Most importantly, the Romans turned westward, creating new and more equitable relations with the Italian city states of Genoa and Venice. Western fashions and culture become the rage, as the Roman Empire seems to celebrate a new awakening.
1216-1217: Fifth Crusade attracts armies from across Europe to Antioch
1218: Oliver of Cologne arrives in Syria with additional forces for the Crusade. He attempts to negotiate an alliance with the Empire in order to cooperate in defeating the Ayyubids, but the Empire refuses to start another war. Oliver secures an alliance with King Levon I of the Armenian Kingdom of Cilicia. The Crusaders take ship to Damietta.
June 1218 – November 1219: Siege of Damietta. Crusaders under Papal Legate Pelagius of Albano begin bickering with the Kingdom of Jerusalem over possession.
1218-1220: Mongols defeat Khwarezm Empire and raid through Armenia and Georgia, reaching the Crimea before retreating. Georgians are defeated but not occupied.
1221: Peaceful succession of Ioannes III Ducas Vatatzes, son-in-law of Theodore Lascaris. He reforms tax collection, making it both more equitable and more efficient, emphasizes economy, and improves the professionalism of the native Roman forces. He also returns the hyperpyron to a proper standard of weight and purity.
Early 1221: Armenian defeat results in truce between Cilicia and Ayyubids on terms of status quo ante bellum.
July 1221: Crusaders march from Damietta to Cairo, but are defeated, surrounded, and forced to surrender Damietta in return for release of the Crusaders and an eight year truce.
1224: Ioannes Vatatzes begins a major naval building program.
"The Doge is dead. The Greek Prince will not last the night. It is disaster."
One disaster after another. The Venetians were sure to leave now, leaving the Crusade stranded without a fleet. The prince they had been promised would be welcomed by grateful throngs had been rejected by his alleged subjects and was burning up with fever, shaking like a leaf. And the common soldiers were listening to the crazed hermit that had been preaching that repentance and submission to God's Vice Regent on Earth was the only cure for the disease running through the camp. Boniface of Montferrat had succumbed early, as had Baldwin of Flanders, and with Enrique Dandolo dead now, the army could not be held together. It was up to him, Louis of Blois, to find a solution. He looked around the council of second-rank leaders who had replaced the great men who had guided the Crusade until now. He marked the sign of fever in the eyes of a few, and defeat in the rest.
There was a heavy silence. "We have few choices now. The Venetian ships will leave soon." A sharp nod from the Venetian captain who was the senior leader of that city's fleet. "This pestilence is destroying us, and the soldiers believe God has forsaken them for our sins. At this point I am ready to agree." No one argued. "I am ready to send for the hermit. Perhaps he can keep the soldiers from mutiny while we extricate ourselves from this disaster. In the morning, I will send heralds to the Greeks to speak to them of our return to our homes. We have failed."
The meeting was broken up by shouting outside. Those who heard it had no doubt of what it meant. The men had discovered the Doge was dead.
In the morning, Louis finally admitted to himself that he had lost control of the situation entirely. Not only had the men discovered the Doge was dead, but some treacherous servant had let that damnable hermit into his private tent. Into his private papers. Within an hour or less, the entire army knew they had been excommunicated for the attacks on Zara and Constantinople. Only quick thought, the claim that Dandolo had lied to him as well, and loyal men with drawn swords prevented a mob from murdering the members of the army council. Order was restored with daylight, but only the admission of Petros to the ranks of the council had permitted this. The Greek prince Alexius had indeed died in the confusion. Petros promised the men, on behalf of the council, that they would have a chance to earn pardon for all misdeeds they had been led into by treacherous leaders. With the council, he was blunt, almost demanding. Unfortunately, Louis saw no alternative that would not have the army rioting out of control again. At least everything could be blamed on the dead leaders. Peter insisted that the fleet begin ferrying the army across the strait again, and men were leaving behind their plunder, derisively referred to as the 'wages of sin' by the monk. On the other shore, a new camp was being prepared as a base for the new direction of campaign.
Early June 1203 – Disease sweeps the assembled Crusader army, killing Enrique Dandolo, Boniface, and Alexius IV, throwing the Army into confusion. A hermit, Peter, appears, preaching that this is retribution for attacking fellow Christians. The letters sent to Dandolo from the Pope fulminating against his attack on Zara are published in the army. A council of nobles is set up to command the Army with Peter’s advice and with the mandate to swiftly remove the Crusaders from Constantinople’s environs and strike against “the infidels” as swiftly as possible. Nearly simultaneously, Theodore Lascaris, with the support of the Varangians and other soldiers in the City, moves to arrest and blind Alexius III, tonsure him as a monk, and smuggles him out to the Crimea in the dead of night. Isaac II also takes monastic vows and is removed to a small rock in the Aegean.
July 1203 – The disease abates as the Crusaders are shuttled over the straits of Mamara. Peter’s advice is a mixture of the immensely practical, about latrine placement and sleeping arrangements, and spiritual.
August 1203 – Shadowed and supported by Cuman and Pecheneg mercenaries in Roman pay, the Crusaders meet the Seljuk army hurriedly gathered to meet them. Spurred on by renewed religious fervor and with some unexpectedly practical advice from Peter, the Crusaders are victorious in a series of pitched battles. In a bid to maintain the favor of God, the Crusaders return conquered cities to Roman rule.
"My Brothers!" the Emperor began. Four years ago that would be unthinkable, but four years of constant fighting alongside the Franks had rendered them not only less alien, but brothers indeed. "We have won great victories. We have swept the Turk from lands which have not been ruled by Christians in a century. We have done this, not seperately as Roman and Frank, but as fellow soldiers of Christ, fellow Christians, fellow warriors. We have shed blood together, suffered greatly together, and at last have come to stand together against the Saracen as invincible through the power of the life-giving Cross and by the blessings of the Saints. Now we have overthrown a great power of the infidels, and it is fitting that as our brothers in arms, we should reward your steadfast faith and valor. So We lay before you three choices. Know that however each of you chooses, you shall ever after be honored as a citizen of Our Empire, to be treated as such should you ever return, for your blood shed on Roman soil alongside Roman blood has made you more worthy to be counted as such than many who enjoy the pleasures of the City without striving for its defense."
"The first choice before you is to become one of us. We will have need of strong warriors to defend Our lands, and strong men to raise up sons to defend our lands. We can think of nothing better than for you to live among us. Each man who chooses this path shall be given lands commensurate with his rank, in order to maintain himself properly.
"On the other hand, some of you may wish to return to your homeland. We pledge that none shall leave without gold commensurate to the great services rendered, and We shall pay passage and hire the ships to return you. Or, should you wish it, the Frankish Kingdom of Jerusalem has need of fighting men, and We shall hire ships to take you there and give you gold to sustain yourselves for a time."
1207 – Last vestiges of the Sultanate of Rum is overrun by Crusaders, now with Roman regulars fighting alongside the Crusader army. The Emperor Theodore Lascaris offers the Crusaders three choices – to swear fealty and receive grants of Roman land, transportation back to the West with gifts of gold, taken from the Imperial share of the plunder of the Turks, as their reward for pious and valiant deeds, or transportation to the Kingdom of Jerusalem to continue to serve God there. Roughly half of the nobles and two thirds of the lesser warriors choose to stay in the Empire. Peter retires to a monastery in Thrace, claiming his mandate from God was complete.
1207-1220: A period of largely peaceful reorganization of the Empire. A short, sharp war absorbed the Mengucek Beylik. Administration of Anatolia was organized from the ground up, and much of the recovered territory had to be repopulated. Some numbers of Turks were accepted, most of whom converted to Christianity. Most importantly, the Romans turned westward, creating new and more equitable relations with the Italian city states of Genoa and Venice. Western fashions and culture become the rage, as the Roman Empire seems to celebrate a new awakening.
1216-1217: Fifth Crusade attracts armies from across Europe to Antioch
1218: Oliver of Cologne arrives in Syria with additional forces for the Crusade. He attempts to negotiate an alliance with the Empire in order to cooperate in defeating the Ayyubids, but the Empire refuses to start another war. Oliver secures an alliance with King Levon I of the Armenian Kingdom of Cilicia. The Crusaders take ship to Damietta.
June 1218 – November 1219: Siege of Damietta. Crusaders under Papal Legate Pelagius of Albano begin bickering with the Kingdom of Jerusalem over possession.
1218-1220: Mongols defeat Khwarezm Empire and raid through Armenia and Georgia, reaching the Crimea before retreating. Georgians are defeated but not occupied.
1221: Peaceful succession of Ioannes III Ducas Vatatzes, son-in-law of Theodore Lascaris. He reforms tax collection, making it both more equitable and more efficient, emphasizes economy, and improves the professionalism of the native Roman forces. He also returns the hyperpyron to a proper standard of weight and purity.
Early 1221: Armenian defeat results in truce between Cilicia and Ayyubids on terms of status quo ante bellum.
July 1221: Crusaders march from Damietta to Cairo, but are defeated, surrounded, and forced to surrender Damietta in return for release of the Crusaders and an eight year truce.
1224: Ioannes Vatatzes begins a major naval building program.
It's a likelier POD, but still highly problematic in terms of survival for the Empire in the long term. Crushing the Turks, changing the Empire's economic policy and relations with the Italian states, recreating a capable native army large enough to be effective, and creating a serious cultural exchange between the Empire and the West all seem to be necessary to fix the problems that interrelate and destroy the Empire.
Temporary misunderstanding. I access this thing from my work computer and my personal computer both, and it gave Ian the Administrator fits trying to figure out where I was physically located -- it looks like I'm deliberately using anonymous proxy servers to hide my identity. Fixed it by emailing him with my work email.
Here come the Mongols! Assumptions: Though the Empire would like to help Georgia out in 1236, the Empire is still dealing with the after-effects of the Bulgarian war of 1230-1235. They are having enough trouble keeping the refugees from the East from overruning the frontier provinces.
Unlike the Seljuks the Empire cannot be completely occupied, and they have reserves of manpower to some extent, so buying the Mongols off and making some formal gestures of submission works well enough for now.
1225: Jalal ad-Din Mingburnu sets up Khwarezmid successor state in Azerbaijan.
1226: Jalal ad-Din Mingburnu attacks Georgia, burning Tblisi.
1228-1229: Sixth Crusade, led by German Emperor Frederick II sails via Cyprus to Syria and from thence to Palestine. Inflicts defeats on the Ayyubids and recovers Jerusalem. Roman navy supports operations, but land forces do not.
1230: Bulgarian Empire under John Asen II invades Thrace, winning several battles but not making any lasting conquests. Bulgarian frontier is unsettled for the next five years, as no peace treaty is signed.
1230: Jalal ad-Din attacks the Empire, hoping to take some of the frontier regions. He is defeated by the assembled forces of the eastern Themes. Mongols attack and take Azerbaijan. Jalal ad-Din Mingburu flees to Diyarbakir.
1230-1235: Aragon invades and takes the Balearic Islands from the Almohads.
1231: Mongols complete conquest of Persia and occupy Diyarbakir as well.
1231: First gold coins minted in Italy, in Sicily.
1232: Roman forces fight several local campaigns along the border, as Khwarezm and Turkish refugees fleeing Mongol invasion surge West. Frequently, one group of refugees can be hired to keep other groups out.
1233: With Venetian support, the Roman governor of Rhodes revolts. Revolt is crushed by a Naval expedition.
1235: Major expedition reinforced by hired Khwarezm and Turkish troops against the Bulgarians results in peace treaty with Emperor of the Bulgarians, John Asen. As part of the treaty, Theodore II Doukas Lascaris (age 13) is married to John’s daughter Elena (age 11) and the Bulgarian patriarchate returns to Orthodoxy, rejecting Old Rome. In exchange for this allegiance, the autocephelacy of the Bulgarian Church is formally recognized by the Romans. In concrete territorial terms, the Roman conquests include Melnikon, Skopje, Velessa, and Prilep.
1236: 29 June, Cordoba of the Almohads is taken by King Ferdinand III of Castille. Mongols invade Georgia in force.
1237: Mongols enter Russia for the first time, sacking Riazan, Moscow, and Vladimir.
1238: Defeat of major Northern Russian principalities by Mongols. Valencia taken by Castillians.
1239: Georgia occupied by Mongols, Armenia raided, Kars and Ani sacked by Mongols
1240: Kiev sacked by Mongols.
1240: Beaufort Castle retaken by Kingdom of Jerusalem.
1241: Death of Tsar Ivan Asen II.
1241: Large numbers of Cumans/Kipchaks fleeing Mongol invasion through Bulgaria and into Thrace ask for sanctuary in the Empire. They are assigned lands along the Eastern Anatolian borders, stiffening defenses against what is seen as an inevitable Mongol invasion.
1241-1242: Mongols attack Poland and Hungary, battles of Leignitz and Mohi on 9 APR 1241 smash those two kingdoms.
1242-1243: Mongols attack Roman Empire, defeating thematic armies. Emperor John III Vatatzes moves with central field armies to Caesarea to prepare for defense of Anatolian heartland. Decisively defeated near Kosedag. The Empire is forced into a humiliating peace treaty accompanied by payment of tribute. Disorder as Turkomen tribesmen take advantage of Roman state’s weakness. Formal submission of Georgia to the Mongols.
Unlike the Seljuks the Empire cannot be completely occupied, and they have reserves of manpower to some extent, so buying the Mongols off and making some formal gestures of submission works well enough for now.
1225: Jalal ad-Din Mingburnu sets up Khwarezmid successor state in Azerbaijan.
1226: Jalal ad-Din Mingburnu attacks Georgia, burning Tblisi.
1228-1229: Sixth Crusade, led by German Emperor Frederick II sails via Cyprus to Syria and from thence to Palestine. Inflicts defeats on the Ayyubids and recovers Jerusalem. Roman navy supports operations, but land forces do not.
1230: Bulgarian Empire under John Asen II invades Thrace, winning several battles but not making any lasting conquests. Bulgarian frontier is unsettled for the next five years, as no peace treaty is signed.
1230: Jalal ad-Din attacks the Empire, hoping to take some of the frontier regions. He is defeated by the assembled forces of the eastern Themes. Mongols attack and take Azerbaijan. Jalal ad-Din Mingburu flees to Diyarbakir.
1230-1235: Aragon invades and takes the Balearic Islands from the Almohads.
1231: Mongols complete conquest of Persia and occupy Diyarbakir as well.
1231: First gold coins minted in Italy, in Sicily.
1232: Roman forces fight several local campaigns along the border, as Khwarezm and Turkish refugees fleeing Mongol invasion surge West. Frequently, one group of refugees can be hired to keep other groups out.
1233: With Venetian support, the Roman governor of Rhodes revolts. Revolt is crushed by a Naval expedition.
1235: Major expedition reinforced by hired Khwarezm and Turkish troops against the Bulgarians results in peace treaty with Emperor of the Bulgarians, John Asen. As part of the treaty, Theodore II Doukas Lascaris (age 13) is married to John’s daughter Elena (age 11) and the Bulgarian patriarchate returns to Orthodoxy, rejecting Old Rome. In exchange for this allegiance, the autocephelacy of the Bulgarian Church is formally recognized by the Romans. In concrete territorial terms, the Roman conquests include Melnikon, Skopje, Velessa, and Prilep.
1236: 29 June, Cordoba of the Almohads is taken by King Ferdinand III of Castille. Mongols invade Georgia in force.
1237: Mongols enter Russia for the first time, sacking Riazan, Moscow, and Vladimir.
1238: Defeat of major Northern Russian principalities by Mongols. Valencia taken by Castillians.
1239: Georgia occupied by Mongols, Armenia raided, Kars and Ani sacked by Mongols
1240: Kiev sacked by Mongols.
1240: Beaufort Castle retaken by Kingdom of Jerusalem.
1241: Death of Tsar Ivan Asen II.
1241: Large numbers of Cumans/Kipchaks fleeing Mongol invasion through Bulgaria and into Thrace ask for sanctuary in the Empire. They are assigned lands along the Eastern Anatolian borders, stiffening defenses against what is seen as an inevitable Mongol invasion.
1241-1242: Mongols attack Poland and Hungary, battles of Leignitz and Mohi on 9 APR 1241 smash those two kingdoms.
1242-1243: Mongols attack Roman Empire, defeating thematic armies. Emperor John III Vatatzes moves with central field armies to Caesarea to prepare for defense of Anatolian heartland. Decisively defeated near Kosedag. The Empire is forced into a humiliating peace treaty accompanied by payment of tribute. Disorder as Turkomen tribesmen take advantage of Roman state’s weakness. Formal submission of Georgia to the Mongols.
I just don't see it working the first time the Empire has to deal with it.
They have a better, larger, more disciplined army than the Seljuks did in OTL 1300s, but they have never fought an enemy quite like the Mongols.
If the Byzantines can express any of their earlier political manipulative ability, they can get the Mongols to displace the Turcoman and later work on bringing said Mongols to orthodoxy. The next logical extension is a Mongol Basilieus?
Definitely not! The Empire speaks Greek, and is culturally European. Always has been. TTL goes towards more Western-looking Empire, not a Turkish/Mongol cultural fusion.
But no, the Mongols go Islamic on schedule, because otherwise this turns into Orthodoxy-wank. As fond as I am of the concept, it lacks drama/conflict thus making a bad story.
Yes, but I do not quite see why it takes a Crusader invasion. Sultanate of Rum did OTL fish in troubled waters and successfully conquered Antalya in 1207, but was repelled in 1211.
Yes, the Empire did suffer instability 1180...1204 OTL, but can we rule out a reform-minded and capable emperor emerging for completely internal reasons in 1210 or 1220?
How would a successful Crusader Egypt in 1203 change the foreign policies of surviving Muslim states in Syria? Asia Minor?
A series of questions!
Why does it take a Crusader invasion? Because I can't see anything less drastic shaking up the complacency of the City aristocracy. We're talking the people who deliberately dismantled the two seperate functioning military systems because they were afraid of the provincial aristocracy, and because they never really believed in the reality of the threats facing the Empire. Rather like the divide between late 20th/early 21st century American civil and military population.
Also, without that capable military infrastructure, the Romans weren't going to beat the Turks. Relying on expensive and unreliable mercenaries was an unhealthy long-term solution for more reasons that I can really enumerate. So my PoD would have to be considerably earlier, where either the Comnenoi retain power, keep some semblence of unity in the Empire, and push the Turks back, or Basil II has a competent pro-military successor.
Your last question is begging a point -- why would a Crusade in Egypt be any more successful than the other two times it failed utterly? I don't see it.
But more to the point, I don't see how it would have helped the Empire in any way. More pointless civil wars.
Empire is scrambling. Defeated by the Mongols, Mongols are basing armies in Persia, which pretty much pushes every panic button the Romans have. First priority is restore internal order, which takes more or less every able-bodied fighting man the Empire can buy, beg, borrow or steal. Or get through a marriage alliance.
1244: 52 year old John Vatatzes marries Anna von Hohenstaufen, age 12, daughter of Frederick II of Germany. Numerous Germans and Sicilians are brought into the Empire to replenish the fighting strength of the Army.
1244: An army of Khwarezmi Turks enters Palestine, nominally fighting for the Sultan of Egypt. They sack Muslim Damascus and Christian Jerusalem. Walter de Brienne defeated at La Forbie by an army of Khwarezm and Egyptian Mamluks fighting under Baibars.
1246: A brief war with the Bulgarians results in a confirmation of the terms of the 1235 treaty.
1247: Ciliian Armenia becomes tributary of the Mongols.
1248: Castille takes Seville, finally breaking the power of the Moors.
1248-1250: Seventh Crusade.
1249: Louis IX takes Damietta. Naval support offered by Romans, but troops are limited due to rebuilding after Mongol invasion.
1250: French defeated in Egypt. Coup results in deposition of Ayyubid Sultan and installation of Mamluk rulers. Fredrick II Hohenstaufen, Emperor of Germany and King of Sicily, dies.
1252: First gold coins minted by Genoa and Florence.
1253: Michael Paleologos (age 29) marries Theodora Dukaina Vatatzaina (age 13), the Emperor’s niece.
1253: Outbreak of naval war between Genoa and Venice.
1244: 52 year old John Vatatzes marries Anna von Hohenstaufen, age 12, daughter of Frederick II of Germany. Numerous Germans and Sicilians are brought into the Empire to replenish the fighting strength of the Army.
1244: An army of Khwarezmi Turks enters Palestine, nominally fighting for the Sultan of Egypt. They sack Muslim Damascus and Christian Jerusalem. Walter de Brienne defeated at La Forbie by an army of Khwarezm and Egyptian Mamluks fighting under Baibars.
1246: A brief war with the Bulgarians results in a confirmation of the terms of the 1235 treaty.
1247: Ciliian Armenia becomes tributary of the Mongols.
1248: Castille takes Seville, finally breaking the power of the Moors.
1248-1250: Seventh Crusade.
1249: Louis IX takes Damietta. Naval support offered by Romans, but troops are limited due to rebuilding after Mongol invasion.
1250: French defeated in Egypt. Coup results in deposition of Ayyubid Sultan and installation of Mamluk rulers. Fredrick II Hohenstaufen, Emperor of Germany and King of Sicily, dies.
1252: First gold coins minted by Genoa and Florence.
1253: Michael Paleologos (age 29) marries Theodora Dukaina Vatatzaina (age 13), the Emperor’s niece.
1253: Outbreak of naval war between Genoa and Venice.
Military notes up to this point:
German troops include a number of crossbowmen. The Romans use them as skirmishers, supporting cavalry. The line infantry remains mixed spear and composite bow, but since the crossbows cannot support from the rear ranks, they are not preferred in the line.
Significant number of troops are stripped from the Balkans in order to re-establish a defensible frontier. This becomes important later.
Stuckofen (thank those Germans!) and water-powered trip hammers make semi-mechanized production of lamellae cheaper. Armor is more widely used, even among infantry. Side note: mail is EXPENSIVE. Frickin' labor costs.
Heavy cavalry remains the prestige arm, and the lance more prestigious than the bow. However, the number of people in the Empire from horse archer cultures keeps it alive. There's also an additional payment for soldiers who can demonstrate proficiency in both weapons, which draws the common troopers. And there is a training program for Greek troopers in the horse archer banda.
German troops include a number of crossbowmen. The Romans use them as skirmishers, supporting cavalry. The line infantry remains mixed spear and composite bow, but since the crossbows cannot support from the rear ranks, they are not preferred in the line.
Significant number of troops are stripped from the Balkans in order to re-establish a defensible frontier. This becomes important later.
Stuckofen (thank those Germans!) and water-powered trip hammers make semi-mechanized production of lamellae cheaper. Armor is more widely used, even among infantry. Side note: mail is EXPENSIVE. Frickin' labor costs.
Heavy cavalry remains the prestige arm, and the lance more prestigious than the bow. However, the number of people in the Empire from horse archer cultures keeps it alive. There's also an additional payment for soldiers who can demonstrate proficiency in both weapons, which draws the common troopers. And there is a training program for Greek troopers in the horse archer banda.
