WI: The 2015 UK election polls had been correct?

Been thinking about this as a timeline, but it's not fully baked yet, so here I am:

"It's ten o'clock, and here it is. Our exit poll is saying there will be another hung parliament and the Conservatives will again be the largest party - but only just.

Here are the figures: the Conservatives on 273, down 34 from the last election. Ed Miliband and Labour are on 271, they've gained 13. The other parties - look at the Scottish National Party, 56 for Nicola Sturgeon. Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats are on 25, that's down 32. We're saying UKIP will come away with only two seats.

Remember, our 2010 poll was absolutely on the nail in accuracy. We're in for an interesting few weeks, aren't we? What kind of government might we expect with these figures?"


- David Dimbleby, BBC Election 2015 live coverage, 7 May 2015

So the pre-election opinion polling was right, and after all the returns have been counted, these are indeed the final numbers, at least for the parties listed.

The actual OTL election result, with a Conservative majority, was stunning yet also robbed us of what would have been an utterly fascinating turn of events in the days and weeks that followed the election.

The Conservatives were planning an all-out media offensive to declare themselves the winners and the only possible government with any legitimacy - but the numbers don't add up for them.

Labour was going to declare victory and prepare for government, but coming in second doesn't help, and neither does Miliband having repeatedly boxed himself in by rejecting any deals or arrangements with the SNP, whose votes he needs to pass a Queen's Speech.

Sturgeon had said she wouldn't help the Tories stay in power, but she herself now holds the balance of power.

So. What is the answer to David Dimbleby's question? Who ultimately forms a government, and what is its fate?
 
DISCLAIMER: I'm a Yank

Been thinking about this as a timeline, but it's not fully baked yet, so here I am:

"It's ten o'clock, and here it is. Our exit poll is saying there will be another hung parliament and the Conservatives will again be the largest party - but only just.

Here are the figures: the Conservatives on 273, down 34 from the last election. Ed Miliband and Labour are on 271, they've gained 13. The other parties - look at the Scottish National Party, 56 for Nicola Sturgeon. Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats are on 25, that's down 32. We're saying UKIP will come away with only two seats.

Remember, our 2010 poll was absolutely on the nail in accuracy. We're in for an interesting few weeks, aren't we? What kind of government might we expect with these figures?"


- David Dimbleby, BBC Election 2015 live coverage, 7 May 2015

So the pre-election opinion polling was right, and after all the returns have been counted, these are indeed the final numbers, at least for the parties listed.

The actual OTL election result, with a Conservative majority, was stunning yet also robbed us of what would have been an utterly fascinating turn of events in the days and weeks that followed the election.

The Conservatives were planning an all-out media offensive to declare themselves the winners and the only possible government with any legitimacy - but the numbers don't add up for them.

Labour was going to declare victory and prepare for government, but coming in second doesn't help, and neither does Miliband having repeatedly boxed himself in by rejecting any deals or arrangements with the SNP, whose votes he needs to pass a Queen's Speech.

Sturgeon had said she wouldn't help the Tories stay in power, but she herself now holds the balance of power.

So. What is the answer to David Dimbleby's question? Who ultimately forms a government, and what is its fate?

From what I can tell, there's a lot of bad blood between Labour and the SNP besides union, because the SNP is gaining seats at labour's expense. I don't think they'll back the tories, there's been two generations of bad blood now between nationalists and the conservative party. I think Sturgeon will try to get labor to agree to further devolution and a new referendum, forcing it to choose between seeing the conservatives back in power, or being dependent on SNP to avoid a vote of no confidence, and being slaughtered in the next general. what are the criteria for holding snap elections, and how soon can it be done after the last one?
 
The actual OTL election result, with a Conservative majority, was stunning yet also robbed us of what would have been an utterly fascinating turn of events in the days and weeks that followed the election.

You're telling me. I had a weekend of fun to look forward to, had it all planned out. Instead, by 2am it was all over. It was almost all over by 10pm on election night.

That said, the above numbers, only a Labour-SNP deal works really, but Ed ruled out Coalition. The Lib Dems surviving with 25 (and Nick Clegg) makes them working with Labour harder but it's irrelevent anyway. The Lib Dems are too small to be kingmakers on their own.

The only two party coalitions that work in this situation are:

Labour-SNP
Conservative-SNP
Labour-Conservative

So it's either the top one, or maybe (just maybe) Labour+Lib Dem with confidence deal with the SNP.

I think David Cameron will be leaving, and he'll know he's finished on those numbers.
 
Ed simply tells NATs back me or tories and does whatever he planned anyway

That was certainly the prevailing view at the time. A few sops to keep the Nats happy like increased powers over taxation and then in general just implementing the Labour manifesto.
 
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