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According to Serhii Plokhy (who goes into his conception of how the Soviet breakup happened here), the leaders of the 1991 coup in the USSR did not arrest Yeltsin because they were counting on the awful relations between Yeltsin and Gorbachev to put Yeltsin on their side. Of course, Yeltsin did not see supporting the coup to be in his interests, and he would instead oppose the coup and use the political capital he gained from that to launch his own bureaucratic coup against a weakened Gorbachev some months later.
So WI the coup leaders arrest Yeltsin as they did Gorbachev?
I find it hard to believe that the coup would do well - even if they secured the Russian SSR, the other SSRs might denounce them and even securing the Russian SSR seems like it would be difficult. But even a failed coup could seriously change who had the most power in the USSR in these critical months and greatly change how the collapse of the Soviet empire proceeded.