WI the 1281 Mongol invasion is spared destruction by the kamikaze?

[ASDFG56]

Inspired by my playing Ghost of Tsushima, what if August 15, 1281, is a bright, sunny day, and the Mongol fleet is still intact for the invasion? From my reading of the events of second invasion.... the Mongols really had no chance. The Japanese had the advantage of being defenders on an archipelago, had fortifications all over the area where the Mongols first tried to invade in 1274 (Hakata Bay, as the largest port on the Western coast of Japan, as well as being as close to Korea, was a natural choice on the part of the Mongols), and a relatively isolated, homogeneous population that decreased risk of defection or betrayal. This is too say nothing of the difficulty of amphibious warfare even in modern times, much less that of the Mongols, or the fact that Japan's geography is completely unsuitable to Mongol style tactics.

So, in summary, no kamikaze means the Mongols are just as doomed to failure.

 

[Goldensilver81]

Pretty much they could not have taken Japan the second time it was a disaster waiting to happen with all the new forts the japanse knowing that to expect the cavarly being kinda of useless and the Koreans and chinise sailors ans infantry with low morale pretty much a recepie for disaster.

 

[Lady Visenya]

Ehhh...

Yeah. See...
In 1274, the invasion forces landed on Kyushu. Who had the upper hand in the fighting depends on which sources, but even in Korean and Chinese sources, the generals of the invasion forces made the decision to withdraw all on their own. The typhoon thing was a fucking myth. Literally only appearing in Mongol sources after. It never appears once even in contemporary Japanese sources. Not in Korean ones either. And even if a weather event did occur, all it did was batter the already withdrawing invasion force. And basically every account of the 1281 invasion says it was larger than the 1274 invasion. But the Japanese spent that time really intelligently. And fortified to hell and back. The coast walls on Kyushu preventing the Mongol landing there. And from what we know the fighting seems to have been limited to the outlying islands of and it seems they were even forced to abandon Shiga and retreat to Iki.