WI: Thatcher survives 1990 vote or vote gets delayed?

[stodge]

One of the reasons Thatcher was challenged were polls showing the Conservatives ten points behind with her as leader and level with Labour if Heseltine were leader.

Backbenchers in marginal seats, facing electoral defeat and unemployment if Thatcher remained leader, came to the not unreasonable conclusion their job and career prospects would be better served with a new leader - the polls flushed out Heseltine (as did Howe's resignation). He was forced to challenge but he only succeeded in being the assassin - when new polls showed Major doing as well if not better than him, combined with Thatcher's endorsement of Major, allowed those backbenchers who had deserted Thatcher to save their consciences by supporting her successor.

 

[gaitskellitebevanite]

Which builds in to my contention that if the objective is to get a Tory victory in 1992 under Thatcher, one needs to butterfly away the Poll Tax fiasco.

The men in grey suits could read the runes as well as anyone, and could see that Thatcher as leader would mean a Tory defeat, possibly a heavy one, in 1992. They didn't have the option of rewriting history (as we do), so took the only course available to them, namely getting rid of Thatcher.

The Poll Tax was obviously terrible politics (and terrible policy), but it would take more than just butterflying away that for Thatcher to win a fourth term. Probably requires a much earlier POD, for the opposition vote to be more divided (while Labour lost the 1987 election in a landslide, the party did emerge as the clear second party in British politics and the SDP-Liberal Alliance a poor third).

 

[Layard]

I wrote a timeline on this subject that you may be interested in.

 

[marktaha]

One of the reasons Thatcher was challenged were polls showing the Conservatives ten points behind with her as leader and level with Labour if Heseltine were leader.

Backbenchers in marginal seats, facing electoral defeat and unemployment if Thatcher remained leader, came to the not unreasonable conclusion their job and career prospects would be better served with a new leader - the polls flushed out Heseltine (as did Howe's resignation). He was forced to challenge but he only succeeded in being the assassin - when new polls showed Major doing as well if not better than him, combined with Thatcher's endorsement of Major, allowed those backbenchers who had deserted Thatcher to save their consciences by supporting her successor.

Howe should have had the guts to challenge as well.

 

[Simon]

Putting Morrison in charge of anything to do with her re-election was always going to be a disaster for Thatcher.

Excellent, so that's a potential point of divergence – Morrison is involved in an 'incident' in early 1990 which is successfully kept quiet but he's told in no uncertain terms that he's standing down at the next general election and is moved from being Minister of State for Energy to the Backbenches rather than becoming Thatcher's Parliamentary Private Secretary during the reshuffle. Assuming that a continuing in post Lennox-Boyd or whomever they choose as a replacement takes things a bit more seriously her leadership campaign doesn't seem unlikely to get the four extra votes needed.

 

[The History Man]

Had Margaret Thatcher stayed on, the Gulf War would have been a political godsend for her. A 'khaki' election on the back of the Coalition's victory and a probable landslide victory for the Conservatives in May or June 1991. However, the longer term picture would have been less favourable. The early 1990s recession and allegations of Tory sleaze would have dogged her Government in the same way they did for John Major and Labour would have won power in 1996 in the same way as they did in 1997.

 

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

She placed Peter Morrison in charge of her campaign, which was a hideous blunder.

And allowed Oliver Letwin to convince her of the merits of the dreaded Poll Tax.

Somehow get rid of Letwin or avoid his 'influence' . . . . hey presto!, no Poll Tax.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

I don't think Kinnock could have won outright in 1991, he just wasn't trusted enough by Mondeo Man but I could see there being a hung Parliament.

 

[marktaha]

Had Margaret Thatcher stayed on, the Gulf War would have been a political godsend for her. A 'khaki' election on the back of the Coalition's victory and a probable landslide victory for the Conservatives in May or June 1991. However, the longer term picture would have been less favourable. The early 1990s recession and allegations of Tory sleaze would have dogged her Government in the same way they did for John Major and Labour would have won power in 1996 in the same way as they did in 1997.

Tories losing safe seats in bye elections in early 1991 even without her.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Tories losing safe seats in bye elections in early 1991 even without her.

So that would happen with her too. And probably with greater swings against the Conservatives.

At some point there would have to be another challenge or the Party elders tell her to go. With cabinet resignations as the threat and tool.

 

[cjc]

The Poll Tax was obviously terrible politics (and terrible policy), but it would take more than just butterflying away that for Thatcher to win a fourth term. Probably requires a much earlier POD, for the opposition vote to be more divided (while Labour lost the 1987 election in a landslide, the party did emerge as the clear second party in British politics and the SDP-Liberal Alliance a poor third).

Never did understand Why she added poll tax, even by then end she resested railroad privatization because she knew it would be unpopular, why did she go along with that.

 

[Garrison]

Never did understand Why she added poll tax, even by then end she resested railroad privatization because she knew it would be unpopular, why did she go along with that.

Because there is a more fundamental issue than any policy choice. Thatcher had become utterly convinced she was always right and convinced that she was indispensable to the party and the country. She was incapable of understanding that the Poll Tax might be logical but it was never going to be popular since people who never had to pay under the rates suddenly found themselves facing big bills. If it hadn't been the Poll Tax she would have found some other hill to die on.

 

[Cymraeg]

Because there is a more fundamental issue than any policy choice. Thatcher had become utterly convinced she was always right and convinced that she was indispensable to the party and the country. She was incapable of understanding that the Poll Tax might be logical but it was never going to be popular since people who never had to pay under the rates suddenly found themselves facing big bills. If it hadn't been the Poll Tax she would have found some other hill to die on.

Agreed, her rigidity and inability to realise that she might not be right at all times was a major factor in her downfall. She'd had a bee in her bonnet about Rates for years and the Poll Tax was supposed to be an easy fix.
I remember, as a bewildered 20-year-old student on no fixed income whatsoever, looking at my first Poll Tax bill and wondering which bloody fool sent this to me and how on earth I was going to pay the damn thing (answer: Parents).
And my ex-roommate from college was one of the students who went to Westminster to protest the Poll Tax and got charged by Met Police on horseback.
Dad was a high-up on the editorial team of the Financial Times when Thatcher finally went down in flames and he somehow got my sister's hurried phone comment into the paper: "Dad, I know you're really busy but WHOOPIE!!!!"