WI: Thatcher lost reelection in 1983?
- Thread starter CountDVB
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David Flin
Gone Fishin'
It's customary for the proposer of a thread to give some indication as to what they think might happen, rather than simply ask for the opinions of others.
That's a graph of polling through the early 1980s. If we take out the Falklands Factor, we see the following:
Labour on a steady decline from pretty much the moment Foot was elected leader. He took a party approaching 50% in the polls at the start of 1981, and by the end of 1981, had turned it into a party polling at around 30%, where it pretty much remained. 30% is probably the bottom level of Labour support. This decline is independent of the Falklands, the economy, or indeed everything other than that Labour went straight for rock bottom and stayed there.
The Conservatives also have a decline, but start to pick up just prior to the Falklands War. If the Falklands War doesn't occur, then we can probably knock 5-10% points off the Conservative vote (my estimate - other numbers are available). That puts them in the high 30s/low 40s come 1983 (or 1984, the last date for when an election has to be called).
The SDP is the wild card. The boost from the Limehouse Declaration has faded, and the numbers were falling even prior to the Falklands. But they appear to have stabilised at around mid 30s, before being hammered by the Falklands Factor.
Ignoring all else, and assuming nothing comes along to upset the apple cart, that's giving us roughly: Tory - 37-39%, SDP 34-36%, Labour 29-31% (give or take).
Because of the way the electoral system works under FPTP, that gives a rather distorted view. Labour and Tory votes tend to be concentrated, while the SDP votes were more evenly distributed. That gives the SDP a lot of second places to Labour and Tory in large parts of the country. OTL, we had Tory: 397, Labour 209, and Lib-SDP 23 (21 other). We can probably pull Tory down by around 50 seats, and distribute them 30 to Lib-SDP, 10 to Other, and 10 to Labour. Giving us:
Tory: 357.
Labour 219.
Lib-SDP: 53
Other 31
Other outcomes are possible.
That gives the Tories a majority of 54 - a solid working majority. The Lib-SDP are on a bounce, and looking to make a breakthrough. The Labour party will, as it always does, turn on itself with the different factions fighting against the Real Enemy - themselves.
That's a graph of polling through the early 1980s. If we take out the Falklands Factor, we see the following:
Labour on a steady decline from pretty much the moment Foot was elected leader. He took a party approaching 50% in the polls at the start of 1981, and by the end of 1981, had turned it into a party polling at around 30%, where it pretty much remained. 30% is probably the bottom level of Labour support. This decline is independent of the Falklands, the economy, or indeed everything other than that Labour went straight for rock bottom and stayed there.
The Conservatives also have a decline, but start to pick up just prior to the Falklands War. If the Falklands War doesn't occur, then we can probably knock 5-10% points off the Conservative vote (my estimate - other numbers are available). That puts them in the high 30s/low 40s come 1983 (or 1984, the last date for when an election has to be called).
The SDP is the wild card. The boost from the Limehouse Declaration has faded, and the numbers were falling even prior to the Falklands. But they appear to have stabilised at around mid 30s, before being hammered by the Falklands Factor.
Ignoring all else, and assuming nothing comes along to upset the apple cart, that's giving us roughly: Tory - 37-39%, SDP 34-36%, Labour 29-31% (give or take).
Because of the way the electoral system works under FPTP, that gives a rather distorted view. Labour and Tory votes tend to be concentrated, while the SDP votes were more evenly distributed. That gives the SDP a lot of second places to Labour and Tory in large parts of the country. OTL, we had Tory: 397, Labour 209, and Lib-SDP 23 (21 other). We can probably pull Tory down by around 50 seats, and distribute them 30 to Lib-SDP, 10 to Other, and 10 to Labour. Giving us:
Tory: 357.
Labour 219.
Lib-SDP: 53
Other 31
Other outcomes are possible.
That gives the Tories a majority of 54 - a solid working majority. The Lib-SDP are on a bounce, and looking to make a breakthrough. The Labour party will, as it always does, turn on itself with the different factions fighting against the Real Enemy - themselves.
I think that without the "Falkands Factor" Thatcher would not all the election when she did. It is possible that the government might have fallen earlier with more tory defectors to the SDP.
I think that they would have lost in 1984, the Alliance would have done very well
I think that they would have lost in 1984, the Alliance would have done very well
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
The SDP was largely drawing from the Labour party, which was in turmoil. Over 1981, Labour went from around 50% to 30%, catastrophic by any standards. Over the same period, the Conservatives went from around 35% to 30%. That's concerning, but not yet in catastrophe status.
In early 1982, prior to the Falklands, there was a shift. The SDP had peaked, and their support fell from 40% to 30%, that splitting about 3:2 for the Conservatives.
In the absence of the Falklands, it looks like it's a three-horse race, with the electoral system hurting the Lib-SDP alliance. I stand by my estimate above. From what the numbers say, and my memory of the period, and assorted newspaper front pages, the Alliance had peaked - the Falklands Factor was its death knell rather than the cause of its problems.
And, of course, the Government will get a boost in June of 1982 from Diana sprogging.
I suspect that there will always be the Longest Suicide note in History regardless of there being no Falkland's war.
I also recall that Thatcher remained a very unpopular figure but as a pollster once informed her in 1983 "The people do not like you" but "They will still vote for you"
I can appreciate this as I am no Tory...but...but....(and I feel the need to wash by admitting this) I might just have voted for her the first time I got to vote as she had been the leader of the country for my entire Teens and had a tough image as a leader but she was 'deposed' before I got a chance to.
Also the recovery of the economy was something that is unlikely to be staved off unless Thatcher's Monetarist polices were not enacted / North Sea Oil or whatever really sorted it all out - depending on who you believe.
I also recall that Thatcher remained a very unpopular figure but as a pollster once informed her in 1983 "The people do not like you" but "They will still vote for you"
I can appreciate this as I am no Tory...but...but....(and I feel the need to wash by admitting this) I might just have voted for her the first time I got to vote as she had been the leader of the country for my entire Teens and had a tough image as a leader but she was 'deposed' before I got a chance to.
Also the recovery of the economy was something that is unlikely to be staved off unless Thatcher's Monetarist polices were not enacted / North Sea Oil or whatever really sorted it all out - depending on who you believe.
With no Falklands war and a delayed election that election is going to take place during the NUM's attempt to topple the democratically elected Government. It will be fought by the Tories on the question of who governs Britain, Parliament or the unions (with heavy hints that they're controlled by Moscow). Short of ASB intervention there was no way Labour could win the election.
Sorry for that, my brain crapped out in the middle of writing and I ended up going to bed so I just posted and would add more to the post later. Again, sorry for that
.But yeah, I was expecting with a lackluster economy recovery and no Falklands war, that the Tories would lose seats and end up in a hung parliament with the Labour or something close to that.
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
Oh, Labour were in even more disarray than usual. They're going to win nothing. We're in Longest Suicide Note territory here, and short of intervention by ASBs, Labour will struggle to get above 230 seats.
The Tory vote will be down, the Labour vote collapsed (50% when Foot took charge; 30% a year later. That tells you all you need to know about their chances). The Lib-SDP alliance will be significant. How significant is uncertain.
But the electoral system hurts the Alliance badly. I would guess they would top out at 50 seats or so.
Chris Nation
Banned
To be fair, I believe that playbook had been tried previously. Still, perhaps Thatcher is taken seriously, whereas Heath wasn't.
So the Tories are not gonna really going to lose reelection in 1983 then barring some pretty big disasters then? All righty then. Though now I am wondering the odds of the SDP ending up in charge of the minority government
.You seem very knowledgable on British politics. May I ask you for help on something?
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
You can ask.
I know about the 1980s because I was there and in a position for it to be relevant to me.
However, bear in mind that, like everyone, I have my own political opinions, and that means any view of mine won't necessarily be fully objective. Don't rely on my opinion alone.