lawrencecostin
Banned
Kinnichio growing a spine and pulling back the curtain to reveal the Wizard just isn't happening.
He's still going to beat a prime minister who can't even depend on her own cabinet. By this stage Thatcher had Become increasingly arrogant, out of touch and isolated and it would show in the election. She won't be getting on any soap boxes.Kinnichio growing a spine and pulling back the curtain to reveal the Wizard just isn't happening.
Say what you will about Thatcher, she knew how to campaign
He's still going to beat a prime minister who can't even depend on her own cabinet. By this stage Thatcher had Become increasingly arrogant, out of touch and isolated and it would show in the election. She won't be getting on any soap boxes.
The problem is that polls showed quite clearly that the Tories got a huge increase when they dumped Thatcher and replaced her with Major. You also have to factor that in. It's reasonably clear that the Tories wouldn't do as well under Thatcher in 1992 as they did under Major. How much difference is open to debate. It could be huge (some polls suggests a 20% Tory boost on the immediate change; that will decline over time, but it's not going to disappear).
I think by and large people in this thread are not necessarily underestimating Mrs. Thatcher, but over-estimating Neil Kinnock. The coming election of course under Thatcher was seen by many as a certain defeat. However this is also true of Major, Labour was widely expected to romp home in 1992. Say what you will about Thatcher, she knew how to campaign, and if she had stuck on after the first round and succeeded, I don't think the outcome would have been as cataclysmic as is commonly thought. Labour in the minds of many was still tarred with the extreme left wing brush, and it hadn't cleaned up his image as much as John Smith and Blair later would.
I think Mrs. Thatcher heading the Tories into 1992 (and I do think it would of been 1992) probably would have ended up being a razor thin majority or UUP propped up minority government.
No hate intended in my post. I actually admire her determination; just relaying my opinion on the situation.
Thatcher would have lost, badly, in 1992 (and it would have been 1992 - a Hail Mary five year Parliament because everyone knows what's coming).
On that we definitely agree.I can understand your opinion of her and I see a strong PM who was willing to make changes that previous PM's didn't. I am looking at it from the US and Reagan did many similar changes at the biggest thing he did was keep Jimmy,"I was discussing nuclear polarization" with Amy" who was 12 Carter. If it was Carter vs Trump god help me. It would take a long debate to decide. Thatcher and Reagan IMHO enhanced the UK and US in world politics.
Thing is though, the election wouldn't have been in 1992- Thatcher needs a victory and fast if she wants to avoid another coup attempt. The obvious answer is to time one to take advantage of the Gulf War- except that this just so happens to coincide with the height of a recession.The main argument against the possibility of the Conservatives under Thatcher winning the 1992 general election appears to be that the Conservatives were losing support under her, and only re-gained support after Major became Prime Minister. So, I decided to have a look at this website, which shows all opinion polls conducted between 1987 and 1992. I then took the opinion polls which were taken between January 1990 and November 19th 1990 (the day before the first round of the leadership election) and put them into an Excel document, allowing me to create a line graph:
View attachment 330999
Now, while Labour consistently holds the lead throughout these months, the polls do show that there was a recovery in Conservative support shortly before the leadership election, while Thatcher was still in charge of the Conservatives and her leadership was still believed to be secure (as far as I am aware, it was expected that Thatcher would defeat Heseltine in the first round, so it is unlikely that people would start switching to the Conservatives based on the possibility of Heseltine becoming leader). The last poll in the graph put the Conservatives on 40%, Labour on 45%, and the Lib Dems on 11%. Now, while Labour was still in the lead at this point, if we assume that Thatcher stayed on as leader, there is no reason why that this gradual Conservative recovery would have stopped - indeed, a boost from the Gulf War (whether a permanent boost or not) would have seen the Conservatives recover their lead and, by 1992, it is likely that polls would be roughly the same as OTL - meaning a Thatcher victory in 1992 is far more likely than what some have suggested.