WI TFP coup in Brazil in the 1970s.

[Gukpard]

Tradition, Family and Proprierty is a international catholic organization that had his peak in the 1960s, being active world wide and is still alive alltough it was moved to the shadows. In Brazil it was organized in the 1960s and served as one of the main mccarthyists organizations in Brazil and it was aligned with the integralist party PRP, the clergy and was one of the organizations behind the 1964. During the military dictatorship the TFP was the far right section of the dictatorship and it didn't held much influence, being more and more pushed to the sides as the 1970s went on and became a more and more ostracized and ironized organization as they were trying in the middle of the counter culture to push things like banning porn, restoring the confessional state, they also supported violence against protestants and afrosyncretic religions and other things that thankfully were ignored, the dictatorship was higly elitist and ignored their requests.

Now, in OTL Salazarist Portugal had a regime supported by the TFP, the dictatorship of Franco in Spain (not Franco directly, but the Oppus Dei catholics) and the dictatorship of Ongania in Argentina, Ongania was a oddity as he was in the middle of the 1960s and tried really, really, really hard to crush the counterculture and return argentina to a 19th century catholic state, he cracked down on universities, promoted his pro catholic groups but ultimately failed and got crushed after making a public address saying he planned to stay in power for twenty years.

After this introduction, my question is: What if somehow the brazilian junta tried to emulate Ongania, maybe a integralist like Olimpio Mourão Filho (the officer who started the 1964 coup) get's some sponsoring by Ongania and the support of the TFP and takes over in 1968 instead of Costa e Silva and he begins the same reactionary policies of the regimes said above?

Let me call some experts on Brazil, @Guilherme Loureiro @Monter

 

[Dan1988]

Now that's an interesting WI, considering I've seen members of its US branch before (won't say where), . . .

And starting the divergence with avoiding Costa e Silva, too. Whether that butterflies away the economic "miracle" remains to be seen. Would the TFP-inspired leaders want to maintain Castelo Branco's austerity budget? How much would Brazilian culture change? Would the Rio Carnaval get censored and "cleaned up"?

 

[Gukpard]

Now that's an interesting WI, considering I've seen members of its US branch before (won't say where), . . .

And starting the divergence with avoiding Costa e Silva, too. Whether that butterflies away the economic "miracle" remains to be seen. Would the TFP-inspired leaders want to maintain Castelo Branco's austerity budget? How much would Brazilian culture change? Would the Rio Carnaval get censored and "cleaned up"?

The Carnaval at the time was having that transition of the traditional one to what we have today, but I believe that it is too late to stop it.

If they prevent the "miracle", then it would be extremely ironical to see the far right saving us at least from the economical ruin.

I believe that the TFP would ultimately fail like Ongania, they would keep one or two dictators and push everything they dislike underground but as soon the censorship is lifted everything would come to mainstream again. They wanted to replace rock with gregorian chants and they forbade their members from watching TV, that is dystopical.

 

[Dan1988]

And I thought Janio Quadros was insane enough.

 

[Gukpard]

And I thought Janio Quadros was insane enough.

This is the TFP

These are then marching in the 1970s, yes these are real medieval standarts. They worked as pikes to clash with left wingers, the TFP motto was "To lose? Maybe. To retreat? Never". There is this article in portuguese on the memorial of democracy about them.

Edit: They remind me of Hellsing ultimate, you know, that anime with the Pope Launching a Ninety Crusade to take over the UK.

 

[Dan1988]

I remember seeing their banners, yes - translated into English, of course. Even then they seemed a bit off. So it looks about right.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

First of all, I'm not that knowledgeable about the TFP; they are a historical side note, and don't appear much(if at all) even after 1964. As for Mourão, he was sidelined with a Supreme Military Court sinecure from 1964 to 1969, and died 3 years later. I suspect he was one of the large numbers of pensioned generals after the Armed Forces adopted 'up or out' for promotions to colonel rank and upwards in 1967 or so(the only government which could afford to do that was a military-led regime).

Let's say a TFP-supported general gets in instead of Costa e Silva in 1967. By then, the Milagre is well on its way to happen - the prerequisites for it had already been put into place by the previous government, the external conditions are also there. The first part of the Milagre(until the 1973 Oil Shock) was pretty much driven by the private sector, and economical dirigisme was much lower in comparison to the 1974-79 period. So, even assuming a TFP government would go for an economical liberal ministry(quite possible, IMO - it would be the orthodox thing to do). What happens after the First Oil Shock is the question, because the orthodox answer is to do what the regime didn't do - contract the economy. Doing that would go a long way to hasten their end, and - irony of ironies - may place the next government in a good position for having the 1980's not be a 'lost decade'(even though things would be starting from a lower level, economically speaking).

As for repression, I'd expect it to be more thorough - yes, I know, Costa e Silva and Medici were the high point of the repression, and you expect worse things? - Yes.

At the very least, there would be a lot more of scrutiny on universities; while the generals might look the other way in certain regards to keep the universities churning out the graduates needed for the expansion of the economy, a TFP-led dictatorship would not care. A left-leaning professor, which would 'only' be followed and spied upon in OTL, as long as he kept his mouth mostly shut and avoided being seen with some 'elements', would be purged in a TFP government - and so would be the faculty of his university department, if enough 'subversive elements' were found out. Whether such a purging would not leave the department with enough teachers to keep classes going wouldn't even enter consideration. Also what happened with Rede Globo, where the TV channel would employ openly left-leaning actors and staff, and those would be protected by their owner as long as they obeyed him(which included self-censoring), would not be accepted.

In the end, I'd expect this TFP-regime(as unlikely as I find it to be) to be both shorter(probably gone by 1981, if not a bit earlier), and quite more... intense.

 

[Gukpard]

At the very least, there would be a lot more of scrutiny on universities; while the generals might look the other way in certain regards to keep the universities churning out the graduates needed for the expansion of the economy, a TFP-led dictatorship would not care. A left-leaning professor, which would 'only' be followed and spied upon in OTL, as long as he kept his mouth mostly shut and avoided being seen with some 'elements', would be purged in a TFP government - and so would be the faculty of his university department, if enough 'subversive elements' were found out. Whether such a purging would not leave the department with enough teachers to keep classes going wouldn't even enter consideration. Also what happened with Rede Globo, where the TV channel would employ openly left-leaning actors and staff, and those would be protected by their owner as long as they obeyed him(which included self-censoring), would not be accepted.

In the end, I'd expect this TFP-regime(as unlikely as I find it to be) to be both shorter(probably gone by 1981, if not a bit earlier), and quite more... intense.

Could they revert the counter culture or they would fail miserably like Ongania? Or have success in holding it back a while but them everything would fall apart?

 

[overoceans]

This is the TFP

Wow. Reactionary religion is a hobby of mine, and I'm casually familiar with TFP, but that is some pretty hardcore shit, even just on aesthetics alone. It's like something out of a dystopian horror movie.

(Caveat: My lack of familiarity with whatever type of music that is probably enhances the spooky quality of it, but even allowing for that, one can't escape the impression that we're supposed to be freaked out by it.)

 

[Gukpard]

Wow. Reactionary religion is a hobby of mine, and I'm casually familiar with TFP, but that is some pretty hardcore shit, even just on aesthetics alone. It's like something out of a dystopian horror movie.

(Caveat: My lack of familiarity with whatever type of music that is probably enhances the spooky quality of it, but even allowing for that, one can't escape the impression that we're supposed to be freaked out by it.)

This is not the 1500s, this is 1980

And they also wrote hymns in Latim:

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Could they revert the counter culture or they would fail miserably like Ongania? Or have success in holding it back a while but them everything would fall apart?

I'd say the latter; IMO, they would succeed in holding it back for a while because the Brazilians are, by and large, socially conservative(and they are so even today, after a determined push of about a decade by socially liberal people on the culture front; Bolsonaro's election is a reaction to a lot more than PT's failure and more evident failings). They would fail in the end because the Brazilian people is not as conservative as TFP, and the hammer would fall not only on left-leaning people, but on right-leaning people that would be doing things that previously would either be ignored or accepted as social release valves(Carnival), as well. What would come after on this front? I have no idea.

 

[overoceans]

TFP Student Action takes aim at a wayward liberal Jesuit

Judging from that and a few of their other videos, the US branch seem to have a thing for bagpipes.