WI: Texas joins Rio Grande Republic?

Dorozhand

Banned
What if Texas joined the Republic of the Rio Grande? I've heard that some Texan leaders contemplated the possibility.

What may have come of this?
 
It would either draw Texas into yet another war with Mexico with uncertain results, or it would expand peacefully into those lands controlled by Rio Grande. The most likely result would have been war.

If war, we have several possibilities.

1) Texas wins big and forces Mexico to recognize its possession of the territory of the Republic of Rio Grande.

2) Texas wins a less than decisive victory and gains control of some of the lands, but not all.

3) Texas fails to defend Rio Grande, but Mexico agrees to recognize Texan possession of lands between the Nueces and Rio Grande Rivers.

4) Texas loses. Mexico not only reconquers Rio Grande, but forces Texas to accept its border on the Nueces River.

5) Texas loses big. Mexico defeats Texas and forces further concessions on Texas. It is unlikely Texas will be integrated back into Mexico, but we can expect Texas to cede lots of land, particularly out west which is in practical control of the Commanche.

The most likely result is #3. Texas has certain advantages over Mexico, but also disadvantages. I don't expect a repeat of the Battle of San Jacinto. Texas still enters the United States.

If so, this removes the major casus balli of the Mexican War which happened as a result of the disputed area between Nueces and Rio Grande.
 
Potentially. Also, if Texas wins unexpectedly well, such as in option #1, you might see Mexico starting a later conflict to regain lost honor, land, and prestige.

This could lead to a Mexican-American War still. With America still handily winning. Things like La Reforma are probably butterflied away. Don't know what this would do to the Federalist movement in the country at this time though.

Remember, not more than 2 decades after this France is going to come beating down Mexico's door. This very POD, with Mexico losing may have them draw more funds from their European creditors.

Napoleon III will still probably have the ambition, with Spanish and British support. As America tears itself in half up north.
 

katchen

Banned
I would argue for an Option #6. Both Texas and Rio Grande join the United States as slave states. President Tyler, knowing that California will a) be joining the Union sooner rather than later even if accepting it means war with Mexico and b) knowing that California will be needing a slave state entering the Union at the same time it does since California will want to be a free state, seizes on the Rio Grande Republic as a way to maintain the balance of the US Senate. There is war with Mexico but the US Crisis of 1850 is deferred or delayed.
 
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