WI: Tet Offensive (1968, Vietnam) is a military [and political] success?

So, what happens if the Tet Offensive (1968, Vietnam) is a success on military and political front?

To clarify, I define "success" as the Vietnamese People's Army (the "traditional NVA" and the "guerilla NLF/VC") was able to take control of all key targets? It also includes the reinforcement of regular force (fail to deliver in OTL), a full list of targets attacked and seized (the OTL only sees a fraction of target in SaiGon attacked) and a full broadcast (TV and radio) about the "victory" (even if the fighting is still going on).

What can be possibly change (in 1965-1967) to assure such an event? Can Vietnam be united sooner? What can such a victory affect on the world?
 
Tet was already a political disaster for the USA, so it is a bit difficult to see things get much worse for them in that regard. Maybe support for war is slightly lower, but nothing significant can really happen.

Militarily, the NVA was never going to totally defeat the US Army. The NVA suffered about a million casualties in the war, compared to 100k US. IIRC The US had a couple of million troops there over the course of the war, and at such a casualty rate you need to lose 10 million NVA (roughly) to defeat enough to make a total victory. Which is far more than North vietnam can handle, possibly more than the entire country's population.

So really, not much changes in the big picture. Maybe the war ends in 1974 rather than 1975, but ultimately the same thing still happens. America gives up eventually, NVA wins.

- BNC
 
What if the VPA only seize/attack the positions of the SaiGon regime? The US commands (the mid-to-low level and off-duty, at least) are "confined" in their areas (read: captured prisoner/kidnapped) [this does not happen OTL, of course]

OTL, the Tan Son Nhat (or Tan Son Nhut, depending on the accent) and US Embassy were the only two US-related targets (the second one, as I read on Vietnamese website, is more final-moment decision). This does not include the Khe Sanh base (and surrounding/support positions) of course.

To clarify, WI the VPA was able to seize the following targets and hold the line while their reinforcement was able to punch through the defense parameter and relief them (the 2 later did not happen in OTL)
- Independence Palace (like OTL)
- Radio Tower (like OTL) and broadcast a message (did not happen)
- Navy HQ (like OTL)
- US Embassy (like OTL)
- TSN Airport (like OTL) and ground most/all aircraft support (did not happen)
 
The Tet Offensives were not to capture points and hold them. If they did happen to hold points they would loose them as the Vietcong would not get any backup after the initial strikes and be subsequently slaughtered.

This was the plan of the NVA as they were ready to start the real offensives and they needed a way to get rid of the Vietcong whilst at the same time keep using their abilities in the following offensives untill they would be thinned out enough os they can be assimilated into the NVA. They also wanted to get the South Vietnamese and American morale as low as possible, which succeeded.

Though it was a military defeat, it was a victory in all other aspects(suprise, shock, morale, intel) and holding the points or even all of Saigon would not have changed that, it would still be a success on those fronts and a thinning out of the VC.
 
This was the plan of the NVA as they were ready to start the real offensives and they needed a way to get rid of the Vietcong

As a Vietnamese, I'm offended by that line...


The Tet Offensives were not to capture points and hold them

From a Vietnamese-made documentary, Tet Offensive in SaiGon aims to do that (take control of key positions and wait for the reinforcement), but the reinforcement (regular force of VPA/NLF) failed to overcome the defense line in the outer rim of the city
 
As a Vietnamese, I'm offended by that line...


From a Vietnamese-made documentary, Tet Offensive in SaiGon aims to do that (take control of key positions and wait for the reinforcement), but the reinforcement (regular force of VPA/NLF) failed to overcome the defense line in the outer rim of the city

Well i don't think its a secret that the VC and NVA were not a single entity and the NVA at some point felt threathened by the increasing numbers of the VC. It was at that time the Tet Offensives was thought up and the aftermath cause the VC to be pushed out into Cambodia, decreasing their numbers and halting the reinforcements. This gave the NVA room to operate on its own.

I don't think thats a coincidence.

The Tet Offensive was really a try to get the South Vietnamese to rise up against the foreign invaders and join the VC in the fight. But no such thing happened and all support for further offenses and defenses was cut off. if they were to actually hold those regions, unless the people actually do rise up and join, nothing will be different. They will still be slaughtered.
 
Ho Chi Minh was a real murderous piece of work, Maybe the future post-communist regime dumps his embalmed corpse at the nearest Hanoi rubbish tip.
 
I think it's impossible, the NLF were bound to get their asses handed to them, considering the NLF were not strictly Communist as the Viet Cong label would imply but a combination of forces opposed to the South. Hell when the DRV under the South First faction tried to attack the South it got beaten hard by the U.S. The Tet offensive would need better coordination and for the actual uprisings to happen otherwise it's just slaughter. Hell, the only chance the North had was when the South had no military support after what seemed to be for the North the danger of getting bled white.

Ho Chi Minh was a real murderous piece of work, Maybe the future post-communist regime dumps his embalmed corpse at the nearest Hanoi rubbish tip.

Nothing about Le Duan?
 
So, what happens if the Tet Offensive (1968, Vietnam) is a success on military and political front?

To clarify, I define "success" as the Vietnamese People's Army (the "traditional NVA" and the "guerilla NLF/VC") was able to take control of all key targets? It also includes the reinforcement of regular force (fail to deliver in OTL), a full list of targets attacked and seized (the OTL only sees a fraction of target in SaiGon attacked) and a full broadcast (TV and radio) about the "victory" (even if the fighting is still going on).

What can be possibly change (in 1965-1967) to assure such an event? Can Vietnam be united sooner? What can such a victory affect on the world?

I think the minimum change would be for the VC/NVA to have the combat power in the south to handle literally stacks of artillery batteries, helicopters, close support aircraft that can be bought to bear against them. Not overmatch, just reduce their effectiveness, a task well beyond what can be infiltrated and concealed.

Perhaps some m46 130mm artillery guns could be infiltrated for a bit of counter battery work in places and FROG and Scud rockets could attack some targets, but I doubt it could ever be enough.
 
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