WI: Tercios Victoriosos

What if the Spanish managed to defeat the French at the Battle of Rocroi in 1643? The French victory is commonly noted in the history books as the beginning of the end of dominance of the Spanish Army on the Continent, and the demise of the famed Spanish Tercios, or pike squares.

However, the battle was really decided by the prowess of the French Cavalry which, though numerically inferior, drove the Spanish cavalry from the field, flanked the Spanish and caused a route of the non-Spanish infantry. The Spanish pikemen held out even after the route of much their army, it was only after being bombarded by the French cannons that they surrendered.

Lets say that Louis de Bourbon (the French Commander) is injured early on, or that he gets cold feet and fails to send in his cavalry reserve at the decisive moment. A French defeat means the eventual capitulation of the great fortress of Rocroi that the Spanish were besieging, and probably a great embarrassment to Cardinal Mazzarin, who was at this time attempting to consolidate his position at de facto Prime Minister.

What would be the effects of a Spanish victory at this critical battle, how might it effect the end of the 30 Years War, the French Monarchy, and of course, the history books?
 
What if the Spanish managed to defeat the French at the Battle of Rocroi in 1643? The French victory is commonly noted in the history books as the beginning of the end of dominance of the Spanish Army on the Continent, and the demise of the famed Spanish Tercios, or pike squares.

However, the battle was really decided by the prowess of the French Cavalry which, though numerically inferior, drove the Spanish cavalry from the field, flanked the Spanish and caused a route of the non-Spanish infantry. The Spanish pikemen held out even after the route of much their army, it was only after being bombarded by the French cannons that they surrendered.

Lets say that Louis de Bourbon (the French Commander) is injured early on, or that he gets cold feet and fails to send in his cavalry reserve at the decisive moment. A French defeat means the eventual capitulation of the great fortress of Rocroi that the Spanish were besieging, and probably a great embarrassment to Cardinal Mazzarin, who was at this time attempting to consolidate his position at de facto Prime Minister.

What would be the effects of a Spanish victory at this critical battle, how might it effect the end of the 30 Years War, the French Monarchy, and of course, the history books?

Nothing would have changed. The batle was in fact a pyrric victory of the french whose cavalry was able to rout the Spanish cavalry but not to take the formation of the Spanish Infantry. In fact the Tercios were able to defeat French armies later (Valenciennes in 1648) and Rocroi was taken later by the Spanish armies. The problem for Spain was the defection of Lorraine and Würtemberg and internal problems in Portugal, Catalonia and Andalucia. A victory in Rocroi would not have changed that.
 
Nothing would have changed. The batle was in fact a pyrric victory of the french whose cavalry was able to rout the Spanish cavalry but not to take the formation of the Spanish Infantry. In fact the Tercios were able to defeat French armies later (Valenciennes in 1648) and Rocroi was taken later by the Spanish armies. The problem for Spain was the defection of Lorraine and Würtemberg and internal problems in Portugal, Catalonia and Andalucia. A victory in Rocroi would not have changed that.

But at this time Spain still controlled Franche-Comte, and France was poised to enter a period of internal strife. Wouldn't an earlier French withdrawal from Catalonia to the North have made this a bit easier for Spain? Could France have been forced out of the war with a few more victories, allowing Spain to concentrate on putting its own house in order?
 
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