I would be very interested in seeing this alternate 1920 election campaign, and a Roosevelt term, assuming Roosevelt wins.
First thing I would ask--what themes would TR use in the campaign against Wilson?
Warren Harding used peace, prosperity and a return to "normalcy" which fit well with pulling back from adventurous policy at home and abroad. It fit the mood of voters fatigued by and disillusioned with Wilson's wartime crusade and wartime regimentation.
TR really cannot convincingly do what Harding did. Between his known rambunctiousness, activism and rhetorical flourishes, he does not do "normalcy" which probably sounds to him like "complacency" or "national dry rot".
So, what narrative does TR have to acknowledge that he is as much the adventurer as Wilson is, but "trust me, my adventures will be better"?
Will conservatives and big business feel left out in the cold and underserved? What would TR be promising them to make them feel better?
On the other hand, if Roosevelt runs as Roosevelt, I see it moving the "overton window" of what's politically acceptable a bit to the left on economic and regulatory issues and a bit to the right on naval/military issues. With difficult to predict consequences.
Now, moving on to a Roosevelt Administration in power from 1921 to, whenever.
What will TR's attitude be towards various things like naval arms control and the Washington Treaty (especially the renunciation of fortification in the Western Pacific), the Ruhr crisis, Boleshevism, Ireland and so on?
I see him completely supportive of the bipartisan
zeitgeist to limit immigration of southern and eastern Europeans in particular.
Probably a rolling back of a lot of the segregation that had taken place during the Wilson Administration. While he likely couldn't do much at the state level, he would likely push it at the Federal Level. Especially since, prior to Wilson, the Federal Government had been the largest employer of black Americans in the Nation.
I am less optimistic on this. I doubt he would do anything Harding did not do, and likely he would do less. Harding refused to dignify rumors he had partial African ancestry. He also insisted on having having no racial exclusion from his audiences in the south.
Meanwhile, while Theodore Roosevelt had less racial prejudice against African-Americans than Wilson, his evolution in office should be instructive. He invited Booker T. Washington to the White House in 1901, cited as an example of progressivity on race. But he did not like all the abuse he got for it, and he was much more deferential to white southern opinion in the Brownsville incident of 1906. He also had tried to expand Republican support among white southerners. He wrote that he felt such tentative rhetorical support and patronage the turn of the century and early 20th century Republican Party gave to black civil rights was costing the party potential supporters.
At any rate he seemed to have less fight and courage on racial issues in 1906 compared to 1901, and I don't see what would have happened between 1907 and 1921 that would have encouraged him exert himself on behalf of African American interests.
I would say that it's notable that from 1872 to 1936, the factions of the GOP that was more "progressive" on economic, labor, regulatory and reform issues, were *less* interested in rhetoric on civil rights or being the party of Lincoln than conservative stalwarts were. It was people more conservative on labor, regulation and reforms who voiced more support for black civil rights and received the support of such African-Americans who were able to be active in Republican Party affairs. Taft had more black support than Roosevelt in 1912.
Probably pretty strong. Or at least stronger. The Conservative faction had already started to take control of the party back in 1908. And TR leaving to form the Progressive Party in 1912 only accelerated that.
The strength of the conservative faction from 1908 through 1912 and beyond makes me wonder if TR really would have the Republican nomination in the bag in 1920 and have support of a majority of delegates. He had a great name-recognition advantage, and credibility with key factions, but is priorities were probably pretty different from those of most Republican delegates in 1920.