WI: Teddy Roosevelt gets the Republican nomination in 1912?

After the Election of 1912, Taft ushered in a new, pro-business conservative rhetoric into the Republican Party, something Teddy Roosevelt, and many Republicans at the time, opposed strongly. When it seemed that Roosevelt MIGHT lose the nomination for 1912, he leaves the RNC, takes many to another Amphitheater, and creates the Bull Moose Party, eventually splitting the Republican Party's vote in 1912, leading to one of the only democratic victories during the Fourth System.

But what if Roosevelt stuck with it more, eased the anti-business rhetoric in the early primary season, and scored the nomination for a third time? Would the American people support a three-term presidency in 1912?
 
After the Election of 1912, Taft ushered in a new, pro-business conservative rhetoric into the Republican Party, something Teddy Roosevelt, and many Republicans at the time, opposed strongly. When it seemed that Roosevelt MIGHT lose the nomination for 1912, he leaves the RNC, takes many to another Amphitheater, and creates the Bull Moose Party, eventually splitting the Republican Party's vote in 1912, leading to one of the only democratic victories during the Fourth System.

But what if Roosevelt stuck with it more, eased the anti-business rhetoric in the early primary season, and scored the nomination for a third time? Would the American people support a three-term presidency in 1912?



Conceivable but far from assured.

It is instructive to look at CA and SD, the two states where Taft was not on the ballot. In 1908, CA went Republican by almost two to one, but 1912 was a virtual tie, with TR edging out Wilson by 174 votes of 600,000 cast.

Similarly, in 1908 Taft took SD by almost 24 percentage points, but in 1912 TR carried it by only eight points. If similar swings took place in other states, then Wilson should still win comfortably even in a straight fight with TR.
 
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The problem with saying that TR could win the GOP nomination if he were "less radical" is that really he *had* to be radical to draw a contrast between Taft and himself. Otherwise, his challenge to Taft would look purely opportunistic and unprincipled--or worse, actually *more* conservative than Taft's because funded by businessmen who resented Taft's antitrust activism. Furthermore, TR had to worry about La Follette appealing to progressives if he himself did not.
 
What if Taft has a health problem and does not run? If TR tries for a fourth term in 1916, his pro Entente views are a problem. He would face a Democrat who is running on a I will keep us out of war platform.
 
What if Taft has a health problem and does not run? If TR tries for a fourth term in 1916, his pro Entente views are a problem. He would face a Democrat who is running on a I will keep us out of war platform.

Depends how many votes Lafollette gets (if he steps in as an alt-Progressive third party) and who he takes them from.
 
After the Election of 1912, Taft ushered in a new, pro-business conservative rhetoric into the Republican Party, something Teddy Roosevelt, and many Republicans at the time, opposed strongly.

...

No, he did not. In fact Taft went after the trusts and such much harder than TR ever did, and is regarded as the more progressive. If you have to say, TR was the more business friendly of the two.
 
No, he did not. In fact Taft went after the trusts and such much harder than TR ever did, and is regarded as the more progressive. If you have to say, TR was the more business friendly of the two.

Taft was regarded as less Progressive because he sided with the Conservatives in Congress. Maybe history exonerates him, but his contemporaries did not. That being said, many doubted TR's Progressive credentials, including La Follete in fact...

Going back to the OP, I don't think it can happen. Having Champ Clark being chosen for Dem Nominee and running a worse campaign than Wilson would be an easier way of Roosevelt becoming Pres, tbh.
 
Going back to the OP, I don't think it can happen. Having Champ Clark being chosen for Dem Nominee and running a worse campaign than Wilson would be an easier way of Roosevelt becoming Pres, tbh.


Why would Clark do any worse than Wilson?

As an old Bryan supporter, he might lose one or two close states in places like New England, but OTOH would be well placed to win CA, where he had creamed Wilson in the Democratic Primary by almost three to one.

He might also pick up a percentage point or two from Debs, much of whose support probably came from Democrats who found Wilson a bit too "establishment" for their taste.
 
A little off the topic but if Teddy does get the nomination and wins again does this usher in the 22nd earlier? Essentially butterflying away his cousin FDR's historic run.
 
A little off the topic but if Teddy does get the nomination and wins again does this usher in the 22nd earlier? Essentially butterflying away his cousin FDR's historic run.

Even his failed attempt to do so came within a whisker of having this effect

In Feb 1913, the Senate passed a Constitutional Amendment limiting the POTUS to a single 6-year term, and disqualifying former Presidents from being elected. It would have passed the House easily, but POTUS-elect Wilson didn't like it and persuaded the relevant Committee Chairman to stop it coming to a vote. Had TR actually got a third term, we may expect that or something like it to become law.
 
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