If Ted Kennedy had been elected in 1976, how would the effects of his presidency differ from the OTL Carter presidency?
WI : Ted Kennedy presidency
- Thread starter Somebody-Someone
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You're going to have to butterfly the 1969 murder by Ted of Mary Jo Kopechne. Her death was the main reason his presidential asperations went down in flames. His story about why he didn't rescue him was the lamest excuse in excuses. The reason he didn't go to prison for even manslaughter is that he was a Kennedy (and the brother of an assassinated president).
Your butterflies, are four (as I can come up with):
1. It never happened.
2. Mary Jo was the driver and Ted floated to the service through the broken passenger side window with a severe concussion and other injuries - only remembering most of what happened when he came to the next morning.
3. Robert or one of the other brothers were the driver, and Ted had nada to do wit the accident.
4. The accident wasn't caused by Ted's lousy (drunken?) driving; but by oh, let's say a fictional person (James Jones) who lived nearby and, like Mary in #2 and #2 was also killed while Ted was not the driver and survived his injuries.
Without one of the four (or if you can come up with a #5) and things go as OTL, Mary Jo will not only haunt, but kill any chance of Ted getting the best of Carter in any sort of presidential options for Ted bid in any year as well, like OTL. Sorry.
Your butterflies, are four (as I can come up with):
1. It never happened.
2. Mary Jo was the driver and Ted floated to the service through the broken passenger side window with a severe concussion and other injuries - only remembering most of what happened when he came to the next morning.
3. Robert or one of the other brothers were the driver, and Ted had nada to do wit the accident.
4. The accident wasn't caused by Ted's lousy (drunken?) driving; but by oh, let's say a fictional person (James Jones) who lived nearby and, like Mary in #2 and #2 was also killed while Ted was not the driver and survived his injuries.
Without one of the four (or if you can come up with a #5) and things go as OTL, Mary Jo will not only haunt, but kill any chance of Ted getting the best of Carter in any sort of presidential options for Ted bid in any year as well, like OTL. Sorry.
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Assuming he didn't get Mary Jo killed ITTL, he'd probably become Senate Majority Leader before running for President in 1976.
As President, he'd have a much better relationship with Congress than Carter did and maybe he could deliver some kind of healthcare reform (At the very least it'd be something like Nixoncare/CHIP). Anglo American relations would deteriorate a bit due to Ted's views on Northern Ireland. Most other foreign policy stuff would be similar to Carter (maybe he'd have less success in getting a deal between Egypt and Isreal). Stagflation, Iranian revolution and the energy crisis would lead to his defeat by Reagan in 1980 though.
As President, he'd have a much better relationship with Congress than Carter did and maybe he could deliver some kind of healthcare reform (At the very least it'd be something like Nixoncare/CHIP). Anglo American relations would deteriorate a bit due to Ted's views on Northern Ireland. Most other foreign policy stuff would be similar to Carter (maybe he'd have less success in getting a deal between Egypt and Isreal). Stagflation, Iranian revolution and the energy crisis would lead to his defeat by Reagan in 1980 though.
His best bet for the presidency is to avoid 1976 because Ford is an incumbent and set his eyes on 1980 or later. If Ford does not gaffe about Eastern Europe, he might beat Carter and serve a full elected term. Of course, Panama, Iran and inflation would change little so a party change would be almost mandated in 1980.
The question was not how Kennedy could win but rather what would happen if he did run and win.
Regardless of how he gets there, we can expect a Kennedy health care proposal. It is probably to the left of the modern-day ACA. The Republicans may come back with a compromise that resembles the ACA and Kennedy would probably accept it. That's a major change. Remember, Nixon was pretty to the left on health care in the 70s. Certainly, one could expect Medicare and Medicaid expansion. That'll have huge repercussions.
It's also going to change the narrative about liberal candidates and galvanize the left. Remember, Carter's narrow 1976 win and Mondale/Dukakis losses in 1984 and 88 supported the later rationale behind DLC/Bill Clinton in 92. Clinton's election validated it. If a liberal Democrat knocks an incumbent Republican off in 1976, then there's less of a basis for nominating centrist Democrats in the future. Especially if Kennedy can construct a foreign policy that avoids the hostage situation and enables reelection in 1980.
It is really quite difficult to understate what a two-term Kennedy presidency would do to the makeup of America's ideological spectrum. If he serves two terms and knocks Reagan back in 1980, it is entirely likely that the entire country shifts to the left. It's also possible that the Christian Right breaks from the Republican Party if they begin working actively with Kennedy, making the Republicans more extreme and broadening the Democratic base. Of course, it could backfire, too. A Kennedy presidency failure might galvanize Republicans, help them win in 1980, and scare Democrats away from nominating liberals in the future.
The trouble is, foreign policy might not work against coup-oriented insurgent forces. An option would be to evacuate the embassy without announcement, two months before the Islamic takeover. But that would look like the US was running and not facing a progressing problem. I think 44-year old Teddy should decide to hold out in 1976 and wait for a later opportunity, the best being to succeed Ford after 1980.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
He drove off of a poorly marked bridge drunk. It's manslaughter, not murder. It was also failure to [promptly] report an accident [I mean, he waited like 10 hours!]
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GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
GDP Growth for U.S. Economy
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RO1Q156NBEA
Please notice, the late '70s are good. I mean, comparing favorably to the '90s!
* until 4th quarter of ‘79
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Agreed completely. I think in a Ford wins 1980 scenario, Kennedy is pretty much unstoppable (although Jeff Greenfield would argue for Gary Hart...)
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
That’s almost the sorriest part. Not that Ted, who was most probably concussed, didn’t report the accident. But that two grown men, who damn well ought to know better, instead delayed and strategized and let Ted report it.
Well, we learn to be go-along-Charlies in our jobs, because the consequences of being even somewhat in the direction of a stand up individual, are too often just brutal.
Mary Jo Kopechne almost certainly was already dead, and in a sense it didn’t make any difference.
All the same, in a better world Joe Gargan and Paul Markham probably would have gone to jail. And maybe for a longer term than Ted. Let’s say he gets three years for drunk driving and vehicular homicide. But the two of them each get five years for willful failure to report.
Cabinet of President Edward “Ted” Kennedy 1977-1981 (working progress)
Vice President: Russel B. Long [1]
Secretary of State: Eugene McCarthy
Treasury Secretary: Pat Brown
Attorney General: Barbara Jordan
Defence Secretary: Terry Sanford
Secretary of Agriculture: Joseph Montoya []
Secretary of Education: Gale McGee
Secretary of Transport: Calvin L. Rampton
Administrator of Veterans Affairs: Vance Hartke
Chief of Staff: Sargent Shriver
[1] Needing a running mate to balance the map ticket, Long would gain back southerners who dislike northerners like Kennedy.
His career in the senate since 1948, gave him ample experience.
Montoya's most important accomplishment was his work on the Senate Agriculture Committee, where he gained expertise concerning the inspection and regulation of the meat packing industry. This led to an interest in consumer safety and health. He authored numerous pieces of legislation aimed at eliminating unsanitary conditions in the meat packing industry, including the Wholesome Meat Act of 1967, the Wholesome Poultry Act of 1968 and the Clean Hot Dog Act of 1974.
I’m hoping his new career alters his death in 1978.
Vice President: Russel B. Long [1]
Secretary of State: Eugene McCarthy
Treasury Secretary: Pat Brown
Attorney General: Barbara Jordan
Defence Secretary: Terry Sanford
Secretary of Agriculture: Joseph Montoya []
Secretary of Education: Gale McGee
Secretary of Transport: Calvin L. Rampton
Administrator of Veterans Affairs: Vance Hartke
Chief of Staff: Sargent Shriver
[1] Needing a running mate to balance the map ticket, Long would gain back southerners who dislike northerners like Kennedy.
His career in the senate since 1948, gave him ample experience.
Montoya's most important accomplishment was his work on the Senate Agriculture Committee, where he gained expertise concerning the inspection and regulation of the meat packing industry. This led to an interest in consumer safety and health. He authored numerous pieces of legislation aimed at eliminating unsanitary conditions in the meat packing industry, including the Wholesome Meat Act of 1967, the Wholesome Poultry Act of 1968 and the Clean Hot Dog Act of 1974.
I’m hoping his new career alters his death in 1978.
To prevent Chappaquiddick simply have Kennedy accept his invite to attend the launch of Apollo 11 and then spend a few days afterwards in Florida. NASA’s then head of PR Julian Scheer said he’d declined because he thought it was “Nixon’s Party.”
There was a previous thread on this in which having gone to Cape Canaveral, about a year later Kennedy is pulling over for a DUI. The Kennedy machine smothers the story but under pressure from his family he goes into rehab, this means he sits out 1972, in any case he realises Nixonnis unbearable. By the time Watergate breaks he’s completely clean and the scandal creates a rose tinted view of his brother’s Presidency meaning that he wins a landslide in 1976.
There was a previous thread on this in which having gone to Cape Canaveral, about a year later Kennedy is pulling over for a DUI. The Kennedy machine smothers the story but under pressure from his family he goes into rehab, this means he sits out 1972, in any case he realises Nixonnis unbearable. By the time Watergate breaks he’s completely clean and the scandal creates a rose tinted view of his brother’s Presidency meaning that he wins a landslide in 1976.
Long opposed the CRA and would be absolutely toxic on any national ticket. A better option if Kennedy wants a southerner would be Lloyd Bentsen.
Depends on how motivated he actually is. Granted it would be four years earlier but all you need is a journalist asking him "Why do you want to be President?" as Roger Mudd did and if he gives the same car-crash answer he's sunk. That opens up the questions of was it just losing to Carter four years earlier which put him in a funk, or was he at heart really not all that enthusiastic about running but felt it was expected? If the latter then you could see a less decisive and more aimless Presidency.
Whose healthcare proposals IIRC were torpedoed by Kennedy, partly because he thought he could get more after the next elections – turned out he couldn't – and partly in a fit of pique.
Probably would have been a below average President. He was the Fredo of the family.
@Somebody-Someone, that was the first option I gave in the butterflies needed. It hadn't been mentioned as 'not happening' in your beginning post.