WI: Ted Kennedy dies in 1969

Um, this might've been done before. I'm really new to this whole thing.

During the Chappaquiddick incident in 1969, Senator Ted Kennedy finds himself unable to escape his submerged car, and is trapped inside the vehicle, dying inside with Mary Jo Kopechne and not being discovered until the following morning, as in OTL.

How does the media react? Who replaces Kennedy in the Senate? How does this affect the Kennedy family and it's legacy? How do Health Care Reform attempts go without Kennedy involved? Other legislation Kennedy sponsored? Etc. etc.
 
Ted Kennedy would be missed particularly on the health care issues but I don't believe anyone is irreplaceable. I think the media would play up the tragedy, particularly just one year after Robert's death.I know that Joe Sr. died in 1969, was still alive at that point ?
 
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One interesting butterfly might be - if you take Christopher Matthew's assertions that the Nixon White House led a campaign of dirty tricks aimed specifically at Ted Kennedy - the avoidance of the Watergate burglary, and therefore the continuation of the Nixon administration beyond 1974, the reason being that Nixon's paranoia won't snowball in the same way as it did IOTL. I'm inclined to take Matthew's assertions with a pinch of salt, but it's certainly one possibility that might arise from Senator Kennedy's early death.

I don't think this butterflies away Watergate. Nixon had more enemies and Kennedy;s death doesn't cure Tricky Dick's paranoia.
 
We would probably have Romney in the White House today unless some butterflies prevent this from happening. Romney lost to Ted Kennedy for the Senate in 1994 IOTL. With no Kennedy in his way, Romney could more easily become a senator. Because of this he would have more political experience than IOTL therefore making him a more suitable candidate for the presidency.
 
I think the media would play up the tragedy, particularly just one year after Robert's death.I know that Joe Sr. died in 1969, was still alive at that point ?

Joe Sr. died on November 18th. The Chappaquiddick incident occurred on July 18th. So, Joe would be alive at the point of his final son's death. However, he was very sick from his 1961 stroke and could not walk or speak due to his disabilities.

His last public appearance, in our timeline, was in a videotaped message a few weeks after Robert Kennedy's funeral. I don't know if he'd be up to making one after Ted Kennedy's funeral.
 
We would probably have Romney in the White House today unless some butterflies prevent this from happening. Romney lost to Ted Kennedy for the Senate in 1994 IOTL. With no Kennedy in his way, Romney could more easily become a senator. Because of this he would have more political experience than IOTL therefore making him a more suitable candidate for the presidency.
For all we know, though, the Republican that Sargent appoints to the office could have run for reelection and still have been in the Senate by 1994, so Romney would fail in his primary attempt. Or some other Democrat gets into office and goes against Romney, the lack of a bunch of scandals making up for not being an incumbent for so long or part of such a powerful political dynasty.
 
Um, this might've been done before. I'm really new to this whole thing.

During the Chappaquiddick incident in 1969, Senator Ted Kennedy finds himself unable to escape his submerged car, and is trapped inside the vehicle, dying inside with Mary Jo Kopechne and not being discovered until the following morning, as in OTL.

How does the media react? Who replaces Kennedy in the Senate? How does this affect the Kennedy family and it's legacy? How do Health Care Reform attempts go without Kennedy involved? Other legislation Kennedy sponsored? Etc. etc.
Note that Rogue Beaver makes a very strong case that Kennedy was never in that car. So the first pod probably is to get him there....
 
Away from the political realm, Ted was the man who beat the Kennedy Curse. Change that and the Kennedy Curse is a very seriously real thing in our culture. Especially with all 4 of them going out in just the 60's.
 
Where does he say that?
Hmmm... I thought it was RogueBeaver, but what I found was
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=3962832&postcount=10 said:
Isn't it pretty much accepted that Ted wasn't in the car when it went off the bridge? The expert opinion of the officer on the scene, a fellow so well regarded that he was elected sheriff for decades after, had Mary Jo driving alone after a patrolman interrupted she and Ted's earlier try at getting jiggy in the back seat.

After she drove off, Ted walked to the motel, checked in, and fell asleep waiting for her to arrive. When woken in the morning, hungover and shocked, he lied out of reflex and was stuck with that lie for the rest of his life.

It's a shame Ted lived the lie to the bitter end. Given his alleged religious beliefs, you'd have thought confession would have been a priority once he became terminal.

Anyway, assuming no Chappaquiddick, Ted is still the political equivalent of a Dead Man Walking thanks to the OTL observation made by one of his enemies that you yourself have repeated a few times in your excellent threads: Wouldn't have happened if Bobby were there.

Without RFK acting as both a brake and moral compass, Ted is going to self-destruct. And, once Watergate gives the press it's new mythology about it's role in society, the press is going to be gunning for Ted daily. As with Spitzer and that moron in South Carolina, getting away with it only leads to running more risks. If Ted dodges the figurative bullet at Chappaquiddick, he's going to do something else and something more over and over until he is caught with the figurative live man/dead woman.

Given Ted's borderline OTL behavior after Chappaquiddick and before his marriage to Vicki, I cannot see him not destroying himself politically in the seven years in this ATL between 1969 and 1976. So, no presidency and maybe even, if his post-Watergate scandal is big enough, bounced from the Senate.

followed by
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=3963070&postcount=11 said:
He never came clean on what happened, even in True Compass. I would probably agree with that version of events given his intoxication. Not bounced from the Senate though, because he never had a credible opponent until Romney in 1994, who he dealt with the same way Boxer dealt with Fiorina: "teh ev0l outsourcer!" Maybe he did do confession privately, but publicly the excuse was always not wanting to reopen old wounds for the Kopechne family. Mmm hmm. :rolleyes:

In a different thread
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=6090351&postcount=11 said:
Not at all revisionist. It doesn't redeem him in the slightest. Quite the reverse, in fact. The theory revolves around Kennedy and Mary Jo being spotted (At or after 12:30AM, some 60-75 minutes after they were seen leaving the "Boiler Room") in a local lover's lane by a local sheriff's deputy. They take off, leaving the deputy behind. At this time, the following facts exist, but Kennedy doesn't know any of them:

The deputy did not get the make and model of the car, the license plate # or state of origin. He recognized no one in the car before it sped off. He had no access to any form of transportation nor communications.

Though Kennedy did not know it, he had already made a clean getaway. But he didn't know that, and that was where the wheels came off the wagon. He had to assume the absolute worst:

That the deputy got his license plate number, recognized his face, was calling for backup, was racing to his police cruiser, and that Kennedy would run right into an incoming police cruiser coming onto the island.

So, what to do? Remember, both he and Mary Jo are highly intoxicated at this point.

"Mary Jo, I want you to take the car. When they stop you, just tell them I loaned you the car, and you were going home alone by yourself. I'll just tell anyone who asks that I'm taking a walk to clear my head...":rolleyes:

So she leaves, and Kennedy walks on. Mary Jo, very drunk, driving an unfamiliar vehicle, on a darkened bridge with no guardrail, slips over the side on the driver's side forward wheel. It skids a short distance, and the car goes over, landing in the water bellyflopper style, with the shock of impact transmitting to the driver Mary Jo, knocking her unconscious. She wakes up as the water fills the car, and she gets to the air pocket at the rear window, quickly using up the air there and asphyxiating.

We cannot know if she knew in her intoxicated state whether she could ever have known that the car was only barely submerged. Also if she could have had the strength to open any of the windows or doors.

In the dark of the night, the drunken Kennedy walks across the bridge, seeing nothing. He then checks into the motel, being recognized by the night clerk. Kennedy then proceeds to chat up the night clerk, going back and forth to and from his room, chatting with the clerk. Establishing an alibi for his whereabouts, should Mary Jo be stopped by the police. Finally, at 3AM, he goes to bed for the night.

At about 7:30AM, he gets up and goes outside. He sees police, fire, and emergency vehicles. But the first person HE runs into is one of his own aides. What happened next, until the press conference, we will probably never know.

The following facts ARE in evidence, however:

Kennedy did not arrive at the motel drenched in mud and water. He was at the press conference in the same clothes he had on the night before. They were still clean. His insipid web of lies made sense ONLY if you are trying to cover up the FIRST set of lies he had prepared to cover up an affair.

Why? Because in the most cynical of political calculations, Kennedy knew then and there that his Presidential future was over (though it took his disastrous 1980 nomination campaign to convince him once and for all). That press conference was all about saving his Senate career, his political future in Massachusetts. The people in that state were prepared to believe any story he had to tell as long as it didn't involve Nazis on the Moon!:mad: Good line.

zoomar

The trick is to try to get your head around the nature of the times. It was 1969. DUI, even involving the deaths of innocents, was not looked upon as a crime by society then. Only as rank foolishness. The worst you'd be looking at, most of the time, is a lifetime suspension of your driver's license.

But for politicians, caught with another woman, that was political suicide. Today, the wheel has come full circle. The only way a politician can be destroyed by an affair today is if he is a "family values" politician.

So pleading to the "lesser offense" of an affair? Politically it WASN'T the lesser offense. And beyond that, there was having to admit that he set up a deliberate web of lies to coverup the affair, leading up to Mary Jo's death. I wonder if even the voters of Massachusetts would be able to swallow THAT!

Kennedy, once sober, knew what he was doing.

You know how the truth is always stranger than fiction? Besides, there were very powerful political forces in play who would have been delighted to shred Kennedy had he told the truth (paging Nixon Administration).

How many times do people have to tell a lie, no matter how silly, because the truth would never be believed? Remember, Kennedy lied about the timing of the accident, and called the deputy a liar. Kennedy was hoisted up his own petard.

The deputy said: "Look, you can believe me, or you can believe him. Take your choice!" Apparently, the people chose to believe him. They elected him Sheriff.:cool: The trick is, don't allow yourself to cherrypick the data. If the deputy is telling the truth, then Kennedy is lying about the time of the accident. If he's lying about that, he can be reliably considered to be lying about everything else.

(*) Not "A reason to exist." Just a perfect example of the old chestnut of "Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive.":mad:

So, apparently not RogueBeaver. I apologize for the mis-attribution.
 
For all we know, though, the Republican that Sargent appoints to the office could have run for reelection and still have been in the Senate by 1994, so Romney would fail in his primary attempt. Or some other Democrat gets into office and goes against Romney, the lack of a bunch of scandals making up for not being an incumbent for so long or part of such a powerful political dynasty.

Here's a possible scenario where an early death of Ted Kennedy can result in a president Romney.

When Kennedy dies in 1969, Governor Sargent appoints fellow republican Silvio Conte, the representative from the first congressional district, to take his spot. Senator Conte wins the election of 1970 against democratic challenger James Burke (representative from 11th district). Conte contiues to win elections and keeps his senate seat until his death in 1991. Following his death, republican governor William Weld appoints Romney to take his spot. Romney wins the special election of 1992 securing his seat as well as the election of 1994. In 2000, George W. Bush picks Senator Romney to be his running mate and Romney becomes VP when Bush wins the presidency. After Bush serves two terms as president, Romney runs for president against democratic challenger Hillary Clinton. Romney beats Clinton in 2008 therefore becoming president. In 2012, Romney beats the democratic nominee Biden therefore earning a second term.
 
Is it possible the lack of endorsement from Ted Kennedy could butterfly Obama's election in 2008 in favor of Hillary? Much of the family was more interested in Hillary until he came out for Obama - perhaps with him out of the way, they stick to Hillary, and more importance is placed on the family that lost four sons to politics.
 
I'm going to say that any speculation on political ramifications past, say, 1980 are probably not going to involve your normal cast of characters. The butterflies unleashed could affect Ford's 1976 VP choice, winning him the election, and butterflying the Carter presidency and the fallout from that. Or Kennedy isn't there to challenge Carter in 1980, giving Carter enough strength to beat Reagan in the general election.

Point is: Carter won't be facing liberal opposition from his own party, and will probably be a two-term president; Romney isn't likely to be running for a Massachusetts senate seat in 1994; Obama isn't likely to be running for president in 2008, nor is Hillary; Volpe may get to serve in the senate after all; John Kerry might run for a senate seat earlier, with the outcome determining his career; Brooke may keep a hold on his senate seat ensuring Republicans a black caucus member and possible future presidential candidate; and the list goes on and on. But the changes on the federal level are going to be so vast that names like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama probably won't have any cultural significance.
 
I'm going to say that any speculation on political ramifications past, say, 1980 are probably not going to involve your normal cast of characters. The butterflies unleashed could affect Ford's 1976 VP choice, winning him the election, and butterflying the Carter presidency and the fallout from that. Or Kennedy isn't there to challenge Carter in 1980, giving Carter enough strength to beat Reagan in the general election.

Point is: Carter won't be facing liberal opposition from his own party, and will probably be a two-term president; Romney isn't likely to be running for a Massachusetts senate seat in 1994; Obama isn't likely to be running for president in 2008, nor is Hillary; Volpe may get to serve in the senate after all; John Kerry might run for a senate seat earlier, with the outcome determining his career; Brooke may keep a hold on his senate seat ensuring Republicans a black caucus member and possible future presidential candidate; and the list goes on and on. But the changes on the federal level are going to be so vast that names like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama probably won't have any cultural significance.

While I do understand the power of butterflies, I'm a little confused on the bit about his death affecting Ford's 1976 vice presidential choice.
 
There'd be a lot more conspiracy crackpots because of the 'Kennedy Curse'. Hell, it could impact pop culture if there are (successful) films, novels and music all about such a subject.
 
I have three disagreements with recent posts.

1. The candidate of the president's party winning the 2008 elections. It was time of a bad economy and If George W Bush is president i' don't see how this butterflies away the Iraq war.

2. Even if Kennedy isn't there to challenge Carter, I don't see Carter winning reelection. There is a bad economy and the hostage crisis.

3. Kennedy's endorsement being that important to Obama winning the nomination.
 
While I do understand the power of butterflies, I'm a little confused on the bit about his death affecting Ford's 1976 vice presidential choice.

Well say, for instance, Volpe is chosen to replace Kennedy and manages to hold onto the seat in subsequent elections. Here we have a popular two-term governor, former secretary of transportation, and sitting senator. Volpe was a moderate, but not a Rockefeller Republican by any means. He certainly had vice-presidential ambitions in 1968 and would probably still have such ambitions in 1976. He'd be a solid pick for Ford, and wouldn't have been as gaffe prone as Bob Dole. Given how close this election was, his presence on the ticket might be enough to swing the 30 electoral votes Ford needed to win. (Probably can't win Massachusetts, but Ohio almost certainly comes his way and maybe Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.)

It's not so much Kennedy's death as his replacement that would change Ford's VP choice, and 1976 was such a close election that a different VP could easily swing the election to the other side.
 
I agree w/Paul; I find it extremely unlikely that Ford would pick Volpe. As you stated, "1976 was such a close election that a different VP could easily swing the election to the other side". Indeed, with a different VP candidate this different outcome might have happened. If not Dole, Ford would have chosen someone he had a long and positive relationship with and who would be acceptable to the conservative wing of the GOP. Howard Baker or Phil Crane are on that list, as would George Bush, Donald Rumsfeld or Dick Cheney. Any of these men would make a fine alt-VP selection and would do more to enhance the electability of the ticket in the fall than John Volpe would.

Edit: I just looked, Volpe would have been up for re-election in 1976 (which might mean nothing, or mean everything).
 
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