WI: Tebbitt takes over from Thatcher in '88, consequences for the UK?

WILDGEESE

Gone Fishin'
What if after winning the 1987 election Thatcher stood down after 12 months and allowed Norman Tebbitt to be elected Leader of the Tory's and PM of the UK?

Ok . . . you'd need to butterfly away the injuries to his wife (that was the reason he gave as to why he resigned from cabinet roles)

What would be the consequences of this in Foreign Policy especially towards Europe?

What happens to the Labour Party under Kinnock, Smith then Blair?

How would the next few General Elections play out?

How long would it be possible for him to be Leader and who would possibly take over?

Regards filers
 
This would be an interesting TL, but some things would need to be addressed.

Thatcher would not leave on her own. Very few people can, once they tasted that power. So she would need to be nudged, which my TL did, but it took a lot in my TL for that to happen. Also, Norman and Thatcher were not on the same page in the '87 campaign. Norman was running the campaign with little to no energy and there were ugly scenes with Margaret undermining him by almost doing her own campaign strategy separate from his plans (Thatcher, in her weaker moments, indulged herself in thinking she was the only one who had a clue on how things should be done and that nothing could be done without her there to supervise it).

Lastly, Norman wasn't The Guy. He was what Dusty Rhodes once memorably called a walk-behinder. I mean, stranger things have happened, but there were men in that Cabinet who could have taken his place much easier. Nigel Lawson was no one's idea of warm and fuzzy, but he was at this point the loyal lieutenant of the revolutionary vanguard of Thatcherism. For him to be sidestepped in favor of Norman would have meant trouble, and you do not want to be on the wrong side of your Chancellor. There would also been factions around the Generation Next type candidates, since Norman would have been seen as not The Guy. John Major was already being noticed, Cecil Parkinson was on his way to being rehabilitated and there was the "not-quite-there, but maybe" candidacy of John Moore to consider. There would have been blood spilled and ill feeling all around.

But if Norman does somehow quell the mutinies and cobbles together an alliance in the name of Party unity, he would have tacked along the same lines as Thatcher, but with a couple of hiccups and interestingly shaded butterflies fluttering about. I have no idea how Norman would do as a Leader and Prime Minister, because power changes people. In terms of whatever would have been his legislative agenda, he would have had more troubles than Thatcher. For starters, he was not a proven commodity who won two general elections, he was the new person at the job and he'd be tested. For another, Tebbit was not very good at massaging the House. He understood the mechanics of the House and the levers to press, but he was not loved or seen as inspirational, and he had a tendency to reach for the stick much more often than the carrot. Which meant that those who could disobey him would have more incentive to do so if he could not compel obedience. There are limits to how much you can rule by fear, and whatever mechanism of obedience he can bring to bear would be counter-weighed by MPs looking at each other and saying, "How long is he going to stick around? And can I lose my seat in the next election if I back him to the hilt?" Other factors to consider would have been a resurgent Labour trying to flex its muscles and doing more.

In terms of leadership and succession plans among the Tories, Norman would face much more factionalism. There would be the split between those who would push towards an arch-dry such as Nigel, there would be a growing wet-rebellion around surviving Heathite Hurd. And then, as I previously mentioned, the Generation Next. John Smith had to look over his shoulder the entire time he was leader, because he knew the Kinnock groomed Blair or Brown were going to try to take his keys if he made three wrong turns on the way to the party. Tebbit would have had to look over his shoulder a lot. And it would have worn him out.

I have no idea how the Tories do in the next general election under this plan, but there is a very good chance Tebbit is not Leader or Prime Minister when it rolls around, because there'd be too much unrest in the Party.
 
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