How is Timur going to conquer all of Mongolia, Manchuria, and Korea? That's a huge area away from his supply lines. By 1405, Ming-Mongol relations had moved from complete animosity to more indifferent cordiality. Who knows, we might even see tacit assistance between the two instead.Timur IS going to go through the Mongolian steppe. He needs first of all to unify the Mongols (including the Jurched in what is now Manchuria and perhaps even the Yakuts in Siberia) --and convert them all to Islam. Only then will he attempt to take on the Ming. More than likely, as you say, Timur will find the Ming too tough a nut for even him to crack and he will have to be satisfied with sacking Beijing and perhaps a few provincial capitals such as Hsian and Yangku--and conquering Lliaoning. Timur will then attack and conquer Korea as a consolation prize.
Now Korea is unique in East Asia in that it has a belief in a unitary deity named Hanmanim. Because of this belief in Hanmanim, Christian missionaries, both Catholic and Protestant have had an easy time establishing large churches in Korea, a situation unique in East Asia IOTL. For Timur, this situation means that the Koreans will be quick to convert to Islam ITTL. So we will have the bizarre situation of a Muslim Mongolia and Korea long after the Timurids have passed from the East Asian scene.
And oh yes. Because of the importance of filial piety in Korean society and an obvious Korean wish to be independent of Mongol overlords, it would not be surprising if the newly Muslim Koreans adopted Shia Islam as soon as they learned of it.
I think that you need to become a little more familiar with the way that steppe people travelled and fought and organized their armies. We are used to Medieval armies travelling at a stately pace of 10 miles per day, needing a long baggage train pulled by oxen.How is Timur going to conquer all of Mongolia, Manchuria, and Korea? That's a huge area away from his supply lines. By 1405, Ming-Mongol relations had moved from complete animosity to more indifferent cordiality. Who knows, we might even see tacit assistance between the two instead.
There's also the fact that the Ming were more successful in fighting the Mongols. Beijing was never threatened by them historically, and it was the Ming who managed to lead aggressive if unsuccessful campaigns into the Mongolian steppe. As I'm saying again, there's no reason to assume that Timur is going to get to Beijing.
I think that you need to become a little more familiar with the way that steppe people travelled and fought and organized their armies. We are used to Medieval armies travelling at a stately pace of 10 miles per day, needing a long baggage train pulled by oxen.
10 miles a day is the speed of an ox or cow. That is not the top speed of a horse.
I believe Timur would plan to build his siege engines in Gansu. Probably around Dunhuang or Anhsi. And recruit infantry there. His first substantive attack against the Ming would then be against the Jade Gate and if successful, Lanzhou and then Hsian.
The MO of Mongol-Tatar-Turkic armies was to rely first of all on mobility and surprise, Elfwine. One of the most frightening things about the Mongols was that they travelled so fast that they arrived at a city before any word that they were coming could get there before them. Vikings and corsairs could do this to coastal towns but nobody else in the Middle Ages could do this on land.
And if Timur stays in China, he's going against an enemy that will be aware that he's coming (word reached China by March 1405, so if Timur lives, the Ming will be ready). Unless he slows himself down by bringing cannon, he'll be outmatched against an enemy which will soon have artillery (I don't think the Ming used cannon against Mongols until 1414, but I would think they had the technology before then). In the 1420s, the Ming had a number of successes against the Khalka Mongol forces of Arughtai in battle, and it was the logistical challenge of the steppe that thwarted Emperor Yongle. In a defense of China proper, that won't be an obstacle anymore.
My point is, to look at history, you can't just point to Mongol tactics and assume they would be superior. Fact: the Mongols had the tactics of the Mongols. That seems intuitive. Also a fact: this wasn't enough by the time the 1400s rolled around, when the Ming were able to keep the Mongols out of China.
Technically the civil war started in 1400. It actually never encompassed the whole country and was fought around Beijing for the first two years. The Prince of Yan's victory in 1402 was never a sure thing, since both sides were quite well-matched for the first two years. It would be a larger and more extended point of divergence to have the Ming civil war stretch on longer so that Timur is invading a divided China. That, or he could invade even earlier, which would mean he doesn't end up capturing Damascus and Baghdad.IIRC Timur heard that a civil war was going on in China so he rushed across his empire to China, but the problem is that it happened when his troops was sacking Ankara, and by the time he went to CA the civil war was long over.
I think that you need to become a little more familiar with the way that steppe people travelled and fought and organized their armies. We are used to Medieval armies travelling at a stately pace of 10 miles per day, needing a long baggage train pulled by oxen.
10 miles a day is the speed of an ox or cow. That is not the top speed of a horse.
Mongols traveled on these small, steppe ponies that were exquisitely adapted for northern steppes with the climate and rainfall of Nevada or Wyoming. And they were able to travel day after day after day at what amounted to pony express speeds because they each travelled, pack, bow, quiver and all, on one horse, but all seven horses in the string were saddled. Mongols (and Tatars and steppe Turks, which Timurs forces were) were trained to jump from horse to horse while the string of horses were running every hour. This kept any horse from getting winded until the end of the day and enabled a Mongol ordos to travel an average 70 miles per day, 700 miles in 10 days, 1000 miles in 2 weeks.
At that speed, one is travelling at the natural rate of speed tha ta herd of wild horses travel when searching for food and water. Water sources need not be terribly close together. Stretches of outright desert can be crossed safely unless they are shifting sand or lava flow that can cut the horses hooves even if the horses are shod. Less food and hay need be carried. How they manage shifting parts of gers (yurts) from horse to horsse, I'm not sure, but since steppe nomads even move and fight during the cold winter, they must.
No two ways about it. Timur will have a tough time. He will have to best both the Dzungars and the Khalkas before taking on the Ming. And it is entirely possible that the Dzungars and Khalkas will bury their differences and join forces to beat Timur. Because the Dzungars and Khalkas are strong Vajrayana Buddhists who do not want to become Muslims. If THEY win and not Timur, the religious balance of power on the steppes could change markedly and Buddhism may spread westward. Or Timur may decide that discetion iws the better part of valor and so may the Mongols and stand aside while Timur bashes his army against the MIng. If Timur's army isn't totally destroyed, then he may seek and get a consolation prize in Korea, where his dynasty will soon be replaced by a local Muslim dynasty. A Muslim Korea is not so bizarre if you know Korean religion.