WI: Taliban hands over Osama

So what's the shelf life of an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which doesn't invoke an invasion by a rightfully pissed off America?

How does this impact the wider region?
 
The Taliban was a genocidal regime which put the interests of the Pashtun tribe above all others. Such a regime in a tribe-oriented society like Afghanistan is always going to face uprisings against it's authority. India, Iran and Russia would continue to back the Northern Alliance which would continue the fight against the Taliban.
 
This is going to be a bit tricky. The Islamic Emirate is a dangerous failed state in a volatile region, and it sits on top of a veritable mineral wealth and an important potential oil line path between Central Asia and Pakistan. They wouldn't agree to having Western companies and workers in.

On the other hand, while Islamic/Eastern hospitality is a major virtue to them, I'd imagine a suitable bribe would make them quietly deliver Osama, so the USA would just take him and his inner circle and leave them in peace. No NATO invasion, no pointless ongoing intervention.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
I can’t find the post right now, but I’m fairly certain that another member on this forum claimed that the Taliban would have been willing to hand him over to Saudi Arabia but not the US.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
The Taliban was a genocidal regime which put the interests of the Pashtun tribe above all others. Such a regime in a tribe-oriented society like Afghanistan is always going to face uprisings against it's authority. India, Iran and Russia would continue to back the Northern Alliance which would continue the fight against the Taliban.
But surrendering OBL might earn them the favor of White House and maybe more arms to use against Iran
 
The Taliban offered to give up OBL to the US government in exchange for the US to stop bombing Afghanistan IOTL. But the Bush Administration refused to negotiate, so you'd have to have a totally different administration who would be willing to negotiate with the Taliban
 
The US would escalate its demands to include handing over anyone who had anything to do with Al Qaeida, including key Taleban leaders. This would not be fulfilled and the invasion would play out the way it did in OTL.
 
The Taliban offered to give up OBL to the US government in exchange for the US to stop bombing Afghanistan IOTL. But the Bush Administration refused to negotiate, so you'd have to have a totally different administration who would be willing to negotiate with the Taliban
You are going to need to specify the time it happened. I am googling it and the Guardian shows a mentoin of the Talkban offering to turn over Osama to a third country, if evidence was shown that he was guilty. After a lot of video evidence by Osama.
 
The US would escalate its demands to include handing over anyone who had anything to do with Al Qaeida, including key Taleban leaders. This would not be fulfilled and the invasion would play out the way it did in OTL.

It did OTL, OBL was not enough. The Taliban had to hand over everyone in AQ. I agree with Bush on this. Settling for just OBL would just mean their number 2 or 3 or 4 would be plotting for its next attack on the US. Just one man would be virtually meaningless.
 
I did a module on the War on Terror at University, my lecturer said that on the eve of 9/11 the Taliban did this and were driving Osama to this but they decided against it shortly before, it probably doesn't stop 9/11 as it was only week away but who knows.
 
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