WI: Taliban hands over bin Laden.
- Thread starter Cyclone
- Start date
Fearless Leader
Donor
Though I agree with the above two posters, let's border on ASB territory and assume that the Taliban decide to ignore their power base (which was pro-bin Laden) and somehow manages to capture Bin Laden prior to the US invasion.
For the Taliban, I'd imagine that they will find Afghanistan becoming very unsettled for their "betrayal" of OBL. An upswing in violence probably ensues, with perhaps NATO aiding the Taliban when things turn ugly? In this scenario I could see AQ siding with the Northern Alliance to overthrow the Taliban.
As for the US, the "War on Terror" is over before it can even begin. Furthermore they are plagued with the problem of what exactly to do with OBL now that he's in custody? What exactly is he? A POW? A criminal? How do they try him? Will they torture him to try and gain info about Al-Qaida? Will he break?
For the Taliban, I'd imagine that they will find Afghanistan becoming very unsettled for their "betrayal" of OBL. An upswing in violence probably ensues, with perhaps NATO aiding the Taliban when things turn ugly? In this scenario I could see AQ siding with the Northern Alliance to overthrow the Taliban.
As for the US, the "War on Terror" is over before it can even begin. Furthermore they are plagued with the problem of what exactly to do with OBL now that he's in custody? What exactly is he? A POW? A criminal? How do they try him? Will they torture him to try and gain info about Al-Qaida? Will he break?
Not that insane an idea really in terms of real opinions. Bin Laden was on the fringes of the Islamist movement pre-9/11, bar his wealth he had no real power (ie influence or manpower). Islamism as a broad movement is about purifying the Muslim world, through traditional ethics and modern means and since the 1950s has been focused on overthrowing corrupt (in their eyes) Middle Eastern governments. Although I'm sure Bin Laden bankrolling the bombings in the late 90s and on 9/11 made a lot of extremist think "awesome!", blowing up New York has little directly to do with getting power in Cairo.
As such if given the chance the Taliban might be keen to do it, though quietly perhaps. It wouldn't be popular but its not exactly like they're handing over Islamism's Lenin, just a rich nutter whoes pulled off a biggie. Do remember that most of the famous images of Bin Laden and his balaclavaed henchmen were staged, they were hired from the Taliban and Islamist training camps for the day. 9/11 certainly gave Bin Laden new supporters and has influenced other groups globally (Bali, Madrid, London) but he certainly didn't have an Army to defend himself if the Taliban came knocking on Tora Bora. 'Al Queada' is a complicated thing and OBL certainly didn't use the term until AFTER 9/11 so if the US are swift about it, Bin Laden wont have any chance to organise a decent following and use the name brand CNN handed him.
Also if I remember Kabul was in talks with Washington over gas pipes in Central Asia in 2001 weren't they? I think a combination of mobilisation and economic hardball on the American end combined with oppourtunity on the Afghan end could see it pulled off. But that's forgetting the Neo-Conservative ethos about re-establishing good/evil in geopolitics and democracy by the bayonet, so who knows, the Taliban were an easy target and the prestige might outweigh the shady deal (not saying America would'nt jump at seizing OBL, but that that doesn't make Kabul immune to cruise missiles afterwards).
As such if given the chance the Taliban might be keen to do it, though quietly perhaps. It wouldn't be popular but its not exactly like they're handing over Islamism's Lenin, just a rich nutter whoes pulled off a biggie. Do remember that most of the famous images of Bin Laden and his balaclavaed henchmen were staged, they were hired from the Taliban and Islamist training camps for the day. 9/11 certainly gave Bin Laden new supporters and has influenced other groups globally (Bali, Madrid, London) but he certainly didn't have an Army to defend himself if the Taliban came knocking on Tora Bora. 'Al Queada' is a complicated thing and OBL certainly didn't use the term until AFTER 9/11 so if the US are swift about it, Bin Laden wont have any chance to organise a decent following and use the name brand CNN handed him.
Also if I remember Kabul was in talks with Washington over gas pipes in Central Asia in 2001 weren't they? I think a combination of mobilisation and economic hardball on the American end combined with oppourtunity on the Afghan end could see it pulled off. But that's forgetting the Neo-Conservative ethos about re-establishing good/evil in geopolitics and democracy by the bayonet, so who knows, the Taliban were an easy target and the prestige might outweigh the shady deal (not saying America would'nt jump at seizing OBL, but that that doesn't make Kabul immune to cruise missiles afterwards).
Keenir
Banned
mostly true.
but then you get into "hospitality culture" - its as true among Italian Catholics as Afghan Muslims: if someone entrusts their safety to you while they're under your roof, it's on your head if anything happens to them while they're staying with you.
though that would be an exceedingly effective incentive to keep anyone else from cooperating with the US, covertly or not.