WI: Taiwan stays in the UN

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

What if the Republic of China (= Taiwan) was not forced out of the UN and retains its seat in the UN security Council? Will Macao and Hong Kong become part of the Republic of China? And how will the People's Republic of China react? And what else will be different?

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

What if the Republic of China (= Taiwan) was not forced out of the UN and retains its seat in the UN security Council? Will Macao and Hong Kong become part of the Republic of China? And how will the People's Republic of China react? And what else will be different?

Not going to happen.
Eventually, the US is going to have to recognize that 1/4 of the world's population exists.

The Security Council seat was for the colossus that China (could be). Taiwan is not that China.

The longer the transition waits, the worse the final result likely is for Taiwan, IMO.


Could 'KMT as the legitimate government of all China' have lasted long enough that Hong Kong is transferred to it? Maybe. Could the Brits have 'renewed the lease' with the KMT early (like in the '60s). Probably. But that would require action in the '60s, probably, or maybe early '70s, and I can't see that as likely.

Would Portugal have dared p.o. the mainlanders that way and done the same with Macao? I really doubt it.



Ummm... The only possibility I see for actually keeping Taiwan in the SC seat until today would be if Communist China imploded into a state even worse than OTL's North Korea, possibly splintering into multiple warlord regions. But that's very unlikely. IMO.

Not ASB. but I'd call it close to that unless someone can come up with a reasonable scenario.

 

[SlideAway]

There's precedent for Taiwan to be in the UN - E. Germany and W. Germany were in the UN even when they didn't recognize each other, and the same was true in Vietnam and Korea.

However, because China is a UN Security Council permanent member, they can veto any admission. There's nothing that can be done about that, so Taiwan isn't going to remain in the UN once the People's Republic gets UN recognition.

 

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

There's precedent for Taiwan to be in the UN - E. Germany and W. Germany were in the UN even when they didn't recognize each other, and the same was true in Vietnam and Korea.

However, because China is a UN Security Council permanent member, they can veto any admission. There's nothing that can be done about that, so Taiwan isn't going to remain in the UN once the People's Republic gets UN recognition.

And vice versa!

It would really be fun to read aTL in which Taiwan stays a UN Security Council permanent member.

 

[MattII]

Not going to happen.
Eventually, the US is going to have to recognize that 1/4 of the world's population exists.

Well they still have yet to realise that a more friendly 1/5 of the world's population exists.

The Security Council seat was for the colossus that China (could be). Taiwan is not that China.

Britain wasn't exactly a colossus, even then, it just happened to be the US's main ally.

Hm, could they have traded out Taiwan for Japan I wonder? Or Canada? Or could they just have decided that the whole thing was a pile of junk and gone with a more western-aligned version (composing maybe themselves, Britain, France, Germany and one other, say W. Germany.).

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

There's precedent for Taiwan to be in the UN - E. Germany and W. Germany were in the UN even when they didn't recognize each other, and the same was true in Vietnam and Korea.

However, because China is a UN Security Council permanent member, they can veto any admission. There's nothing that can be done about that, so Taiwan isn't going to remain in the UN once the People's Republic gets UN recognition.

Oh, I think that it would be easy to get Taiwan to stay in the UN. If the US (and UK and France, say) recognized 2 Chinas, Taiwan could have a seat in the General Assembly. Personally, I think Nixon should have done that, but that's water under the bridge.

As part of the negotiation for letting Red China take the Security Council seat, Russia (and the UK and France) would have to agree to let Taiwan stay as a regular member.

Negotiations would be ... interesting, as neither Taiwan nor Red China would be pleased with a '2 China' policy. But given the alternatives - for Red China, it's they don't get seated at all if they don't agree, for Taiwan, it's OTL's complete ouster if THEY don't - I think it could be made to work.

 

[oberdada]

One thought: The Soviet Union and the Peoples Republic remain much closer ties, so that China is not seen as an independent actor in international politics, but a Soviet puppet.
No ping pong diplomacy, no Nixon visit, no US interst in making red China more powerful by helping them to get the Permanet UN seat...