alternatehistory.com

In 1987, Col. Chang Hsien-yi, an American spy in Taiwan, gave evidence to the CIA revealing that Taiwan was only a couple of years away from developing a nuclear device. America told Taiwan to end their secret weapons program and the country complied, preventing the PRC from finding out and growing antsy over the fact their greatest rival possessed a nuclear weapon.

Let's say, however, that the United States did not succeed in their investigation. Chang Hsien-yi either never becomes a spy or is not promoted high enough to know about the nuclear program. They never find out about Taiwan's secret program and the country develops nuclear capability in 1989. How would China and the United States react? Could this lead to war? How does Taiwan develop with their own nukes?
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