WI Taichang Emperor Lives?

The wikipedia article makes it sound like his personality is ill-documented enough that it's hard to say how he would have ruled-on the one hand, he wasn't as well educated and seems to have had tendencies to dissipation, on the other, the first few days of his reign seem to have been devoted to doing basic but unflashy things like paying border guards and filling vacant posts. Maybe he'd be the kind of emperor who would rather simply hire the best officials possible focus more on making sure the state is managed properly? One could also posit I suppose him being more politically savvy and avoiding whatever lead to his death-maybe one of the courtiers or officials takes him under his wing? Honestly just having the emperor last more than a few months will provide some stability, although how much I don't know.
 
Judging by what he did do in his ten days as emperor, and contrast that with his successor's lack of attention, or care, to the workings of the state, even letting the man live just a few years might provide for a longer Ming.
 
I suspect someone had him poisoned, which means that the Ming have bigger troubles to worry about than just whoever happens to be occupying the throne at the moment.

If the Taichang Emperor could cut out the rot while building a faction loyal to him, maybe the Ming would stand a chance. There's still a fairly large chance of a civil war though, or at least damaging intrigue between court factions. This will give rebels and the Manchus time to raise armies and wreak all manner of havoc.

The Taichang Emperor would have to be exceptional in order to extend the life of the moribund Ming Dynasty.
 
Not sure if that'll mean anything, but here's a (really minor) thought -- if the Ming just make it to the 1670's, they'll get the satisfaction of a tricentennial (and lasting longer than any dynasty since the Qin founded the modern Chinese state).
 
From what I remember when I was having Chinese history classes in college some years ago, my teacher once told me that Taichang Emperor was in favor of a more powerful Grand Secretariat (something like modern-day cabinet), and was leading towards the Donglin movement, suspicious of the non-Donglin faction dominated by the eunuch interest groups. By the time Zhu Changluo became emperor, Wei Zhongxian has yet to get real power, and the eunuch interest group was not as powerful as they were earlier or later in the mid-1620s.

First of all, it is NOT a conspiracy theory that Taichang Emperor did not die without doubts. He died after taking in a red pill presented by an official whose name I've already forgotten, and the incident would be known as the "Red Pill Case". Had he survived the sickness without taking the red pill, he could at most make a few years, and no one would oppose my stance that Taichang Emperor could not make more than 10 years, and he would certainly die before turning 50 (he died at 38 in OTL).

Taichang Emperor, to strengthen his own authority, may well grant more power to the Grand Secretariat, though not more than the extent when Zhang Juzheng was Chief Grand Secretary. Indeed, Taichang Emperor tried to appoint Ye Xianggao, a member of the Donglin movement as Chief Grand Secretary. However, being in power for just less than a month, Ye would only become Chief Grand Secretary in 1621 after Taichang's death, and would resign in 1624 in protest of Wei Zhongxian's purge of the Donglin movement. Had Ye served under Taichang Emperor, given more time to consolidate his power, Ye Xianggao may well become another Zhang Juzheng.

A Buddhist, Ye was however sympathetic towards the Catholic community, many of his family would become Catholics or donate money to the Roman Catholic Church. Ye maintained a good friendship with Matteo Ricci before the latter's death in 1610, and may well encourage the emperor to appoint Xu Guanqi, a Catholic official with abundant Western knowledge to be his Secretary of Military Affairs, whose earlier rise to prominence would help strengthen the military strength of Ming. Regarding internal affairs, competent officials like Zuo Guangdou or Yang Lian may well be appointed, to combat the influence of a weakened non-Donglin interest group, given the lack of a strong leader among eunuchs at the time.

The Ming court run by Ye Xianggao, Zuo Guangdou, Yang Lian, Xu Guangqi aided by Catholic missionaries, altogether in 1620, would well have made things much better - without the terrible years of Wei Zhongxian. Hopefully the Wanggong Factory explosion in 1626 that killed more than 20,000 could be butterflied away given that there is no consensus whether the incident was manmade mistakes or natural.

It would be better for Zhu Yaoxiao to die roughly the same time as in OTL, while Taichang Emperor served months after Zhu Yaoxiao's death. Even if any of his children survived in OTL, they would just be babies, and Taichang Emperor would have to appoint another crown prince. This would be difficult however, as Zhu Yaoxiao died of sickness brought by his accidental fall into water.

Even with a better Ming Court, you have to have competent military leaders like Xiong Tingbi, Mao Wenlong and Yuan Chonghuan all survived but being to able to work together, obeying the order of the Imperial Court. Xiong Tingbi must not have made the fatal mistake to give up Guangning in the 1620-22 war with the Manchus. After the devastating loss of Liaodong, the only fate of Xiong would be death. This was not ASB, as there was a perception that Xiong simply gave up Liaodong after initial defeats. Indeed, the Manchus did not have enough resources to continue fighting at the time, but it was Xiong who decided to withdraw all troops and residents back to Shanghaiguan.

As for Mao Wenlong and Yuan Chonghuan to work together would however be borderline ASB, given their personalities. Of course, a Manchurian defeat in 1622 may well have altered the development of the Manchus.

While I have no plans to do a TL on Ming at the moment, I would argue that the latest possible POD for Ming to survive was a longer reign for Taichang Emperor. After Zhu Yaoxiao came to power in 1620, the Ming Dynasty was doomed to fail. Don't tell me silly things like what if Yuan Chonghuan did not execute Mao Wenlong, or that Chongzhen Emperor did not execute Yuan Chonghuan, it would make no difference. You don't need the Manchus to topple the Ming regime, uprisings would do.

Without the rise of Wei Zhongxian and Zhu Yaoxiao's rubbish administration, and with better timing, luck and more competent officials, better from the Catholic community or the Donglin movement concerning officials responsible for domestic affairs, you may well see a Taichang Restoration. Bear in mind that Japan's Fukoku kyōhei (enrich the country and strength the army) was an idea coming from Xu Guangqi. Giving him more power much earlier, may well have altered the course. Things would even be better if Ye Xianggao could serve until his death, being succeeded by Xu Guangqi as Chief Grand Secretary in TTL. Imagine the second most powerful man in the Ming Court after the emperor being someone with Western scientific and military knowledge, as well as connections and support within the Donglin movement (most notably from Zhou Yuanbiao, who should well be an influential official in TTL before his death in 1624). Ming Dynasty could well become totally different, and may well survive until modern day.
 
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Ming Dynasty could well become totally different, and may well survive until modern day.

You're assuming a lot in your scenario. The factionalism rather deep and entrenched and would a lot of effort to get rid of.
 
You're assuming a lot in your scenario. The factionalism rather deep and entrenched and would a lot of effort to get rid of.
You may have misunderstood my meaning. I do not think Ming could likely survive unless Wanli Emperor died not more than 5 years after the death of Zhang Juzheng - while he purged his family following Zhang's death in 1582, he still worked under the frame of Zhang's reform until he began to ignore administrative affairs since 1590. I'm only providing the slim but latest possible way for Ming to survive. In my assumption, I also hinted that such a survival would only be a result of multi-butterflies brought by. Also, it's very difficult for Ming to survive - after all, it's unlikely for all my conditions for a sensible survival; but not to ASB levels, if the rise of Wei Zhongxian could be prevented. Factionalism was a huge problem, but Taichang Emperor's support towards the Donglin movement may well affect the balance. Bear in mind that in Ming Dynasty, neither the Donglin movement or the non-Donglin group could eliminate one another even if the ruling Emperor, Chief Grand Secretary or most powerful eunuch decide to kill off most people in the group. It just would not disappear, but dissident views may not really end Ming rule, it helped make things better instead. It was factionalism in Ming Dynasty that provoked high-quality discussion in Imperial Court and the Grand Secretariat, and discussions may not always be bad.
 
Except for, well, the Han Dynasty. :rolleyes:
Well, the period from 9-25 CE was a full Han collapse, in the sense that the Han no longer existed. It'd be easier to argue there were two Han dynasties, one of which was one of the high points of Chinese history, the other of which was a close imitation of the former.
 
I'm only providing the slim but latest possible way for Ming to survive. In my assumption, I also hinted that such a survival would only be a result of multi-butterflies brought by. Also, it's very difficult for Ming to survive - after all, it's unlikely for all my conditions for a sensible survival; but not to ASB levels, if the rise of Wei Zhongxian could be prevented.

First off Tony, you are as amazing as ever :D

Second, suppowe then the 1620's do happen as you say -- how likely is Ming survival now, and for how long? After all, a successful Donglin Movement, I think, would have plenty of historical impact in it own right...
 
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First off Tony, you are as amazing as ever :D

Second, suppowe then the 1620's do happen as you festive -- how likely is Ming survival now, and for how long? After all, a successful Donglin Movement, I think, would have plenty of historical impact in it own right...

As I've just said, even if we could alter the result of the Ming-Manchurian War from 1620 to 1622, and that Ming could retain control of the Liaodong peninsula, it remains to be seen whether Wanggong Plant would explode as in OTL in 1626. If it still explodes, then no, Ming Dynasty is dead. Wanggong factory explosion is one of the major reasons why I would never attempt a TL on Ming Dynasty, or any Chinese TL pass 1626 unless I could simply butterfly away the existence of Wanggong. But if I butterfly it away, not even Zhang Juzheng would exist in the TL given butterflies.

Not many English sources on Wanggong plant unfortunately, after all it's not totally a political event, but the 1-year-old Crown Prince of Tianqi Emperor was scared to death in the incident.

Wanggong Factory was an important arsenal of Ming Dynasty's Ministry of Works, storing gunpowder, firework, bows, artillery, as well as armour of the empire in Southwest Beijing. On May 30, 1626, The incident killed at least 20,000 people, and the power of the explosion was estimated to be between 10,000 to 20,000 tons of TNT.

According to historical records, strange things happened at the same time and after the explosion, including a suspected mushroom cloud, dark sky in the morning, heavy quake-feeling among houses, as well as that "many people disappeared, while the cloths of some dead bodies are gone". Until today, there is still no consensus on why such weird things happened on May 30, 1626. The naked dead bodies could possibly have been brought by seconds of vacuum due to the shock wave, and the explosion may very likely have happened together with an earthquake, making things out of control. Other explanations include meteorite, hurricane, natural gas explosion, thermonuclear explosion within hidden volcanos, tornadoes, or any combination of the above possibilities.

Apart from the crown prince, various officials were severely injured in the incident. The emperor himself was almost killed trying to flee from the palace. His body guard was instantly killed by a falling object. The incident in 1626 was a stunning blow to the moral authority of the Ming Dynasty, and the rule of Tianqi Emperor. Tianqi Emperor would have to order an imperial decree "apologizing for his past mistakes", though he himself would die within a year. Officials from those in Beijing witnessing the incident to local ones issued petitions to the Imperial Court, calling for reform.

Along with the corp failure in late Ming brought by the small ice age, but at the same time Ming Dynasty increased taxes for defense reasons, the days of Ming were numbered. Since the rebellion of Wang Er in 1627, rebellions happened altogether across China. Bear in mind that it was not the Manchus that ended Ming rule. It was Li Zicheng who marched into Beijing to topple the regime, and then an outraged Wu Shangui opened Shanhaiguan to welcome Manchus into China.

The period between 1626 and 1650 was extremely hard for any regime to sustain, given the technological level of the world at that period of time. Given the best generals and military leaders available, Ming may well have survived all those rebellions, but the cooperation between them was already hard to begin with. A more competent Grand Secretariat and the Imperial Court may have brought better governance, but how to fix the economy and save the lives of poor people from famine was of fundamental importance. Nevertheless, how could Ming create wealth for military reforms even with Catholic guidance, without increasing taxes?

If Ming could survive pass 1650, I see no reason why it could not last for another century, if competent officials could come to power at such a golden period. The success of the Donglin movement would have given Ming Dynasty a much better foundation, and once the worst decades are passed, things would eventually get better. Nevertheless, how it could survive pass 1650 was the fundamental difficult point. I'm not particularly strong on economic issues, and I'm not really sure if those Catholic officials - Chinese or Western missionaries, could provide new ideas on the economy, apart from domestic rule, science and military issues. A failure to solve the economic crisis after Wanggong may well mean that all depends on if the Ming military could crush all armed rebellions, coups, opposition and "foreign aggression". Bear in mind that if all those natural disasters happen at the same time as in OTL, it would be Taichang Emperor to deal with them;)
 
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Will say, did not know about the Wanggong Factory Disaster -- all I can say is :eek:

That said, it sounds like if (a) the Taiching Emperor lives, and (b) this disaster is averted, the Ming keeping the Liadong becomes likely, and all three of these taken together means the state can better respond to the crop crisis. Then it's just making it to 1650, and then Ming should be stable until at least the 18th Century.

Do I have that about right?
 
Will say, did not know about the Wanggong Factory Disaster -- all I can say is :eek:

That said, it sounds like if (a) the Taiching Emperor lives, and (b) this disaster is averted, the Ming keeping the Liadong becomes likely, and all three of these taken together means the state can better respond to the crop crisis. Then it's just making it to 1650, and then Ming should be stable until at least the 18th Century.

Do I have that about right?
Yep, I believe so. If the Catholic-friendly Donglin movement could control the Grand Secretariat until then, China in the early 18th century may well have become a stable superpower:D
 
Yep, I believe so. If the Catholic-friendly Donglin movement could control the Grand Secretariat until then, China in the early 18th century may well have become a stable superpower:D

So the (C-F) Donglin guide China's policy through the 1640's, and the 18th Century... looks different. I'm actually starting to wonder, how a stable superpower China, in itself, changes the global dynamic of (OTL was) such a turbulent period?
 
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