WI Taft steps aside in 1912

How would have history changed if Taft had not contested the Republican nomination once Teddy Roosevelt decided he wanted his old job back? Probably Roosevelt would have beaten Wilson and appointed Taft to the first available Supreme Court vacancy, which would have been the 1914 vacancy filled IOTL by McReynolds. Any other ramifications?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
How would have history changed if Taft had not contested the Republican nomination once Teddy Roosevelt decided he wanted his old job back? Probably Roosevelt would have beaten Wilson and appointed Taft to the first available Supreme Court vacancy, which would have been the 1914 vacancy filled IOTL by McReynolds. Any other ramifications?
An earlier U.S. entry into World War I, perhaps?
 

raharris1973

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An earlier U.S. entry into World War I, perhaps?

More likely than that:

A) TR's bellicosity, and fears of his bellicosity regardless of anything he says, alert opponents of entering the war, who organize better and block him every step of the way in Congress. Democrats, Socialists and hardcore conservatives might all have concerns about the power grab that a wartime TR presidency might have.

or

B) TR's bellicosity and swagger convinces Germany from the beginning that unrestricted submarine warfare will bring the US into the war and that the US can over time become a troublesome enemy, leading to the Germans handling America and international shipping much more carefully.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
More likely than that:

A) TR's bellicosity, and fears of his bellicosity regardless of anything he says, alert opponents of entering the war, who organize better and block him every step of the way in Congress. Democrats, Socialists and hardcore conservatives might all have concerns about the power grab that a wartime TR presidency might have.

or

B) TR's bellicosity and swagger convinces Germany from the beginning that unrestricted submarine warfare will bring the US into the war and that the US can over time become a troublesome enemy, leading to the Germans handling America and international shipping much more carefully.
So, either way, the Germans win?
 

raharris1973

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So, either way, the Germans win?

....relative to OTL, probably. But the Germans are not home free. There could be some random butterflies that end up bringing down the CP or putting it on irrevocable path to defeat in 14, 15 or 16 before the Russians drop out. Another alternative option this could end up resulting in would be a stalemated white peace.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
....relative to OTL, probably. But the Germans are not home free. There could be some random butterflies that end up bringing down the CP or putting it on irrevocable path to defeat in 14, 15 or 16 before the Russians drop out. Another alternative option this could end up resulting in would be a stalemated white peace.
Exactly which butterflies are you thinking of here?

Also, out of curiosity--had Hughes won in 1916, would he have likewise had a harder time entering WWI since he would have also been perceived as more of a war-monger than Wilson was?
 
By the time Hughes takes office in March the die is already cast for war by USW and the Zimmerman telegram. And with Hughes as President-Elect from November - March there is even less reason for restraint by Germany towards the US than with Wilson reelected, since Hughes is clearly going to bring the US in if at all possible.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
By the time Hughes takes office in March the die is already cast for war by USW and the Zimmerman telegram. And with Hughes as President-Elect from November - March there is even less reason for restraint by Germany towards the US than with Wilson reelected, since Hughes is clearly going to bring the US in if at all possible.
And also show them less mercy at the post-WWI peace talks than Wilson did in our TL, correct?
 
...
B) TR's bellicosity and swagger convinces Germany from the beginning that unrestricted submarine warfare will bring the US into the war and that the US can over time become a troublesome enemy, leading to the Germans handling America and international shipping much more carefully.

TR managed to broker a peace between Japan & Russia. He was not stupid, fairly skilled actually. My take is he would have used the threat of war to attempt to manuver the Europeans into a cease fire circa 1916. Maybe that would suceed, maybe not. If not then on to plan B whatever he might have for that.
 
And also show them less mercy at the post-WWI peace talks than Wilson did in our TL, correct?

Why would that be?

He won't be anything like as obsessed with the League of Nations as Wilson was, so has less need to make concessions to the Allies in other areas. Also, iirc most Polish Americans voted Democratic, so he has less need to consider their opinions when the eastern frontier comes up for discussion.
 
Before assuming that TR would easily defeat Wilson in a two-way race, remember that the Democrats won control of the House in 1910, *before* the open TR-Taft split, and that the losers of 1910 included some people closely associated with TR, like Henry Stimson in New York.
 
Before assuming that TR would easily defeat Wilson in a two-way race, remember that the Democrats won control of the House in 1910, *before* the open TR-Taft split, and that the losers of 1910 included some people closely associated with TR, like Henry Stimson in New York.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the Republicans weren't gonna win five in a row regardless.
 
What would have TR done in Mexico with the Mexican Revolution and border unrest? He wss pretty jingoist (didn't he invent the term)

Would he just walk in northern Mexico and set up camp saying that northern Mexico now belonged to the USA?
 
What would have TR done in Mexico with the Mexican Revolution and border unrest? He wss pretty jingoist (didn't he invent the term)

Pretty sure it's attributed to this one British poem/slogan about keeping Russia out of Constantinople in the 1870's.

Would he just walk in northern Mexico and set up camp saying that northern Mexico now belonged to the USA?

That's a little too bold for him. He wasn't nearly as bellicose in office as he was out of it, to be fair to the guy.
 
What would have TR done in Mexico with the Mexican Revolution and border unrest? He wss pretty jingoist (didn't he invent the term)

Would he just walk in northern Mexico and set up camp saying that northern Mexico now belonged to the USA?

What did TR have to say about the two mexican incursions of 1914 & later? Was he a supporter of Wilsons aggressive policy, or of the school that regarded the 1914 Vera Cruz operation as a serious mistake?
 
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