Actually, if you combine the popular vote for Taft and Roosevelt in most states, IIRC Roosevelt would win by well over 100 electoral votes.
I did a quick calculation at uselectionatlas.org, all I did was combine the votes of TR and Taft and changed states as necessary. EDIT: Green is Roosevelt, red is Wilson. I did not take into account any butterflies, so take this with a grain of salt.
Again, Roosevelt ran left of Wilson. Most GOPers would have voted for Wilson if they voted for Taft.