WI: Taft accepts Supreme Court Nomination in 1903?

He was offered a seat by Roosevelt at this time, but he refused based on the fact he felt that the Filipinos he was governing wasn't ready for self governance at the time, plus they liked him as a governor-general.

So what if he actually does give into his desire to be a Justice? How does that affect the grand scheme of things?
 
He was offered a seat by Roosevelt at this time, but he refused based on the fact he felt that the Filipinos he was governing wasn't ready for self governance at the time, plus they liked him as a governor-general.

So what if he actually does give into his desire to be a Justice? How does that affect the grand scheme of things?

What everyone's gonna jump on: 1912. It's important to take into account who Roosevelt's VP would be for 1904-1908 in this TL. Because how TR feels about that man and his marketability will determine if he is TR's successor. And if he is TR's successor, how he'll govern. And if he governs in a state TR supports or detracts from, and therefore runs against in the GOP nomination or independently in 1912.
 
What everyone's gonna jump on: 1912. It's important to take into account who Roosevelt's VP would be for 1904-1908 in this TL. Because how TR feels about that man and his marketability will determine if he is TR's successor. And if he is TR's successor, how he'll govern. And if he governs in a state TR supports or detracts from, and therefore runs against in the GOP nomination or independently in 1912.


VP's in those days were hardly ever seen as likely successors (other than in case of death). They have only been so since about 1960. Before that you have to go back to Breckinridge in 1860 for an example, and before him to Van Buren in 1836.

TR's Vice-President will presumably still be Fairbanks. No obvious reason for it to change. As for Root, presumably whatever reason stopped TR fro choosing him OTL will still apply. So Knox maybe, or Hughes.
 
A bit of a bump, but there are a few ramifications down the line depending on the outcomes of the candidates and so on, and so far I've only heard three candidates:

Charles Evans Hughes
Frank Knox (If I'm correct)
Elihu Root

I'll add one more name to the selection for the progressive wing: Leonard Wood, who was advertised by Roosevelt in the 1920 primaries.

So, between:

Charles Evans Hughes
Frank Knox
Elihu Root
Leonard Wood

So which one would most likely snag the primary? Also, how big of a divergence would each of their respective presidencies?
 
VP's in those days were hardly ever seen as likely successors (other than in case of death). They have only been so since about 1960. Before that you have to go back to Breckinridge in 1860 for an example, and before him to Van Buren in 1836.

TR's Vice-President will presumably still be Fairbanks. No obvious reason for it to change. As for Root, presumably whatever reason stopped TR fro choosing him OTL will still apply. So Knox maybe, or Hughes.

No, but if TR thinks his VP is sufficiently in line with his own beliefs, he could throw his weight behind his nomination to see his way of doing business continued.
 
A bit of a bump, but there are a few ramifications down the line depending on the outcomes of the candidates and so on, and so far I've only heard three candidates:

Charles Evans Hughes
Frank Knox (If I'm correct)
Elihu Root


Actually I was thinking of Philander Knox, who became Secretary of State under Taft.
 
I do not know about Root of Knox, but Hughes had a good progressive record. He might have satisfied TR.


I doubt anyone could have satisfied TR permanently. At some point he'll get frustrated and want to come back. After all, Taft too was reasonably progressive, but that didn't stop TR challenging him.

If Hughes gets the nod, this creates soem interesting butterflies. Assuming TR falls out with Hughes as he did with Taft, then Wilson still gets in in 1912. We might get Taft as the Republican nominee in 1916. One problem, however, is that Hughes may have appointed him Chief Justice in 1910, a position from which he certainly won't stand down. In that case, any thoughts on who gets the 1916 nomination?
 
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I doubt anyone could have satisfied TR permanently. At some point he'll get frustrated and wantt o come back. After all, Taft too was reasonab;y progressive, but that didn't stop TR challenging him.

Actually, Taft was markedly conservative as a progressive while in office. It didn't help that Taft was terrible at keeping people from hating him, and had a bad habit of undermining his own support.

If Hughes gets the nod, this creates soem interesting butterflies. Assuming TR falls out with Hughes as he did with Taft, then Wilson still gets in in 1912.

Depends on whether or not Wilson still gets the nod. Who else besides him was there by the way?

We might get Taft as the Republican nominee in 1916.

Why would he even accept a nomination? He always wanted to be on the Supreme Court, and only ran because he was nominated.

One problem, however, is that Hughes may have appointed him Chief Justice in 1910, a position from which he certainly won't stand down. In that case, any thoughts on who gets the 1916 nomination?

A big reason why TR did this from what I got was that Taft was terrible at diplomacy and tact. A good lawyer, but a bad politician.

I do not know about Root of Knox, but Hughes had a good progressive record. He might have satisfied TR.

Alright.

So, how would a Hughes Presidency affect anything? Would 1912 still happen?
 
Elihu Root was considered by TR; Root begged off in deference to his health. Taft, however, was waiting in the wings. If Taft is on the Supreme Court, I suspect TR could have persuaded Root to accept; Root, on his part, would have extracted a concession: one term and one term only, with that proviso not to be made public in order to not impair the president's power.

With that, Root might not have romped home to victory in 1908--his association with Wall Street was pretty strong--but with the right running mate (e.g., the progressive Albert Beveridge of Indiana), he should have been able to take Bryan to school rather efficiently. And Root in the White House would have the ear of both Wall Street and the Progressives, given his ties to both.

Come late 1911 / early 1912, there's a meeting in the White House between President Root and former President Roosevelt. Root reminds TR of the bargain he made, and tells him he is about to announce that he will not seek re-election--on the basis of his health, to be sure. Moreover, he, Root, will endorse TR for another term.

That pretty much makes the 1912 GOP convention a celebration rather than a contest: the nomination belongs to TR in a walk. Philander Knox, an estimable conservative who is also acceptable to the progressive wing, becomes TR's running mate.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are busy hashing through ballot after ballot at their convention at Baltimore's Fifth Regimental Armory. Champ Clark makes a run but falls short; there's a brief boom for New York congressman August Belmont that goes nowhere. Finally, after 45 ballots, Woodrow Wilson is the nominee on the 46th ballot. He chooses Thomas Marshall of Indiana as his running mate.

Wilson, on the face of it, appears progressive; the voters know, however, that TR is genuine. On election day 1912, it's just short of a Republican landslide, and TR is back in the White House.
 
Elihu Root was considered by TR; Root begged off in deference to his health. Taft, however, was waiting in the wings. If Taft is on the Supreme Court, I suspect TR could have persuaded Root to accept; Root, on his part, would have extracted a concession: one term and one term only, with that proviso not to be made public in order to not impair the president's power.

With that, Root might not have romped home to victory in 1908--his association with Wall Street was pretty strong--but with the right running mate (e.g., the progressive Albert Beveridge of Indiana), he should have been able to take Bryan to school rather efficiently. And Root in the White House would have the ear of both Wall Street and the Progressives, given his ties to both.

Come late 1911 / early 1912, there's a meeting in the White House between President Root and former President Roosevelt. Root reminds TR of the bargain he made, and tells him he is about to announce that he will not seek re-election--on the basis of his health, to be sure. Moreover, he, Root, will endorse TR for another term.

That pretty much makes the 1912 GOP convention a celebration rather than a contest: the nomination belongs to TR in a walk. Philander Knox, an estimable conservative who is also acceptable to the progressive wing, becomes TR's running mate.

Meanwhile, the Democrats are busy hashing through ballot after ballot at their convention at Baltimore's Fifth Regimental Armory. Champ Clark makes a run but falls short; there's a brief boom for New York congressman August Belmont that goes nowhere. Finally, after 45 ballots, Woodrow Wilson is the nominee on the 46th ballot. He chooses Thomas Marshall of Indiana as his running mate.

Wilson, on the face of it, appears progressive; the voters know, however, that TR is genuine. On election day 1912, it's just short of a Republican landslide, and TR is back in the White House.
This scenario is what I was going to say, only eloquent. Anyone interested in making a TL?
 
Depends on whether or not Wilson still gets the nod. Who else besides him was there by the way?

The main alternative was Champ (James Beauchamp) Clark of Missouri, the Speaker of the HoR. He had been a Bryan supporter for many years (until Bryan turned against him at the Convention), and as Speaker would play an important role in getting Wilson's legislation through congress. In 1912 his was the first Presidential campaign to have a Women's Organisation, and one of his daughters was a delegate from Nebraska. He favoured a single six-year term for the President, and also a shortening of the interval between election and inauguration. He was supported by the newspaper magnate William Randolph Hearst, who was tipped as a possible Secretary of State in a Clark Administration.

Failing Clark (ie if the Convention remains deadlocked) the obvious possibility is Bryan, unless the party leaders head him off by agreeing on a compromise candidate such as Thomas R Marshall. Bryan also favoured the single term, and Marshall would probably have gone along with it as it was in the party platform. Almost certainly, any of them would have won the election by about the same margin as Wilson did



So, how would a Hughes Presidency affect anything? Would 1912 still happen?

I suspect it would. Hughes was a lot like Taft both politically and personally - a judge by temperament rather than a politician - so the same differences are likely to arise. This becomes even more likely if the GOP takes the same sort of hammering as OTL in the 1910 midterms, which again is highly likely as by then they had held the White House fourteen years. The previous and subsequent occasions when this was the case, 1874 and 1946, were also disasters for the incumbent party.

I also get the impression that TR was getting increasingly frustrated in "retirement" and rather looking for an excuse to come back. Short of actually stepping down in his favour (most unlikely) I doubt if any other President could have avoided the quarrel.
 
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