WI: Syria is given the Golan Heights back

In November 1967, the United Nations Secuirty Council uanimously approved Security Council Resolution 242 which laid down the conditions for peace in the Middle East after the Six-Day War. They were:

  • Withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict;
  • Termination of all claims or states of belligerency and respect for and acknowledgment of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of every State in the area and their right to live in peace within secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force."
During the Six-Day War, Israel occupied Egypt's Sinai Peninsula and the Syrian Golan Heights. After the resolution was passed, israel created a intiiative called 'Land for Peace' in which Israel would give up it's occupied territory in exchange for peaceful relations. This was rejected by the Arab League's 1967 Khartoum Resolution in which Syria, Iraq, Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Kuwait and Sudan agreed to their own policy: the Three No's.

  • No peace with Israel
  • No recognition of Israel
  • No negotiations with Israel

Egypt later broke away from this polcy and concluded a peae treaty with Israel in 1979, in which it got the Sinai Peninsula back. However, as the years have gone by, the Golan Heights has become a icon of nationalism in Israel, due to it's elevated position which would give any attacker a major strategic advantage as it looks over the Huleh Valley, which is a major source of agriculture for Israel.

But, what if the Syrian government decided to break from it's partners in the Arab world and decided to make peace with Israel in exchange for the Golan Heights? (For thsoe who think this is implausible, in 2010, Israel and Syria almost concluded a peace treaty, but the Syrian civil war got in the way of that, so it's not that crazy for a Ba'athist Syria to make peace with Israel)
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Israel agrees to give golan heights back IF syrian army agrees to dismantle and disarm hezbollah , cut ties with iran and also prevent palestinan groups from using lebanon as a base.
 
The Israeli's would have to get something pretty damned good in return for surrendering the Golan Heights. As you mentioned their strategically pretty vital so the Israeli government would have to be convinced that by returning the Golan Heights Syria wouldn't use them against Israel.
 

raharris1973

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I guess for Egypt, Sinai was worth more as an actual territory to possess so the leadership made diplomatic sacrifices, did a great power realignment, and put itself at deadly risk to get it back. For Syria, Golan frankly must just be worth more as an irredenta and rallying point for proving nationalist street cred than as an actual territory to govern and administer. Syria was basically given the chance to get back Golan on the same terms as Egypt got back the Sinai, despite being weaker, during the negotiating efforts of the 1990s and 2000s, but did not, out of pride I guess.

Syria would have been in the strongest bargaining position to regain Golan down to the last mile had they been seeking to cut a deal before the Egyptians or at the exact same time.
 

Pangur

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Israel agrees to give golan heights back IF syrian army agrees to dismantle and disarm hezbollah , cut ties with iran and also prevent palestinan groups from using lebanon as a base.
Hezbollah did not exist in the 70's . If Syria were to make this move before 1980 that's not a factor
 

Pangur

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did not know we were limited to 70s sorry

in that case israel can demand syria moves in to dismantle PLO from lebanon
TBH I`m dont know if we are or not. IF this were to happen, e.g. Syria sign a peace deal with Israel prior to 1980 the whole history of the Lebanon is so changed, they still get invaded but its plays out so differently
 
If the POD is in the 70’s
  • Syria would have to recognise Israel as a sovereign state and establish diplomatic ties.
  • The Golan would have to be partially demilitarised like the Sinai.
  • Syria would have to stop giving shelter to the PLO and other Palestinian armed groups.
  • A compromise of the borders around the Lake of Galilee would have to be made.
  • Also a compromise about water usage would have to be made.
 

raharris1973

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If the POD is in the 70’s
  • Syria would have to recognise Israel as a sovereign state and establish diplomatic ties.
  • The Golan would have to be partially demilitarised like the Sinai.
  • Syria would have to stop giving shelter to the PLO and other Palestinian armed groups.
  • A compromise of the borders around the Lake of Galilee would have to be made.
  • Also a compromise about water usage would have to be made.

The US would love this. I presume this would go along with a reorientation of Syria from the USSR to USA, as happened with Egypt, and that helps protect the southern flank of NATO's southeastern flank, Turkey.
 

raharris1973

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The US would love this. I presume this would go along with a reorientation of Syria from the USSR to USA, as happened with Egypt, and that helps protect the southern flank of NATO's southeastern flank, Turkey.

This also leaves only Iraq and Syria and possibly South Yemen as substantial supporters of Arab secular nationalist terrorist groups.
 
Your point of divergence has to be between 1967 and 1973 after which the Israelis see the need for strategic depth/high ground so close to their population centers and water resources.
 

raharris1973

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Your point of divergence has to be between 1967 and 1973 after which the Israelis see the need for strategic depth/high ground so close to their population centers and water resources.

So all the negotiations after 73 were just games and charades on the Israelis' part?
 
Your point of divergence has to be between 1967 and 1973 after which the Israelis see the need for strategic depth/high ground so close to their population centers and water resources.

So all the negotiations after 73 were just games and charades on the Israelis' part?

There were serious negotiations in the 2000s, read https://www.quora.com/When-will-Isr...and-the-Syrian-people/answer/Jeremy-Samuel-17, but they broke down due to a disagreement over whether the land that Syria had captured in the 1948 Arab–Israeli War would be returned to Syria or kept Israeli.
 
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So all the negotiations after 73 were just games and charades on the Israelis' part?
Arguably after 1982, when Israel unilaterally annexed the area (IIRC) they largely were. Although the fact that these discussions continued may be read as showing some degree of willingness by Israel to concede something, for the right price.
 
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