WI: Swedish Prohibition in 1922?

In 1922, Sweden held a referendum on prohibition. In the end, the proposal to make alcohol illegal lost with 51% of the electorate voting against it.

Now, what if the pro-prohibition side campaigned somewhat more successfully and won? I'll just handwave why it would be so, but with such a small victory to the "NO" side in the OTL vote, I can't see the pro-side winning as impossible. Maybe our Swedish friends can weigh in, how likely is this?

Assuming this does happen... What would be the immediate and intermediate knock-on effects of Sweden going dry, say from January 1st 1923? One thing that comes to mind is Norway IOTL legalizing the sales of beer and wine at that same time. Would Norway do that if Sweden is going the other way, or would they hold on to more strict prohibition due to the Swedish decision as well?

ITTL, we could then conceivably have all of the Nordics save Denmark have prohibition between, say, 1923 and the early thirties. The Great Dry North, if you will. What would the wider implications of this be?
 
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I always thought that having a "Sin City" system - a designated area where you can legally drink - may be more useful in keeping the law alive; this might be an interesting place to test it.
Anyway, this may enforce the idea of "good pious Scandinavians" in the US, first off. Second, if Norway doesn't follow then Sweden's laws might as well be cancelled immediately, because bootlegging is spterribky easy now. Third, could this possibly induce emigration to Germany or Britain for that alcohol?
 
Even if prohibition would spread to all Nordic Nations I doubt that it could last. It is still possible smuggle cheap alcohol to Sweden from Baltics or Germany with boats. And people can make their own drinks too. So with this would happen same as prohibitions in United States and Finland.
 
You mean Sweden DOESN'T have prohibition? :p


But yeah. Moon shining is a big thing in Sweden. That will be hard to control.
 
Even if prohibition would spread to all Nordic Nations I doubt that it could last. It is still possible smuggle cheap alcohol to Sweden from Baltics or Germany with boats. And people can make their own drinks too. So with this would happen same as prohibitions in United States and Finland.

This is pretty likely. It is a huge business smuggling (at a guess) six million litres of alcohol to Sweden annually, though. So we must ask: cui bono? Who would be the bootleggers to rise to prominence in Sweden? Any OTL big time criminals/smugglers who could become legends in Sweden, in the way Algoth Niska is in Finland? How about where the booze comes from in the Baltics or Poland, say? Where would the biggest fortunes be made out of Swedish thirst?

I agree that the prohibition will not last past the early thirties. I'd be surprised if either Finland or Sweden makes it into 1932 ITTL.


You mean Sweden DOESN'T have prohibition? :p

I'll say. There was no Finnish lonkero to be bought from the Systembolaget before early this year, and the drink was invented for the 1952 Olympics...:p
 
I think it's fairly likely - there was a very strong temperance movement in Sweden in the decades leading up to (and following, to some extent) the referendum.

Worth noting is also the OTL result of the referendum - in reflection of the narrow victory for the Yes side, the wartime system of alcohol rationing was kept in place, and ultimately was not abolished until 1955. It was replaced by a regime of restrictive licensing regulations and a state monopoly on the sale of all alcohol other than low-strength beer. Aside from a brief experiment with raising the limit of the alcohol level allowed to be sold in retail in the 70s, it's only in the past decade or two that these rules have been laxened, and of course, the state monopoly remains in place with little serious opposition.

On the one hand, this would seem to indicate that prohibition may well have been within the realms of possibility. On the other hand, as shown here (video in Swedish, the relevant portion starts around 35:45), the rationing system was a) not actually terribly restrictive, and b) very heavily abused, by both customers and establishments. So something tells me that if prohibition had been put into place, it would've been about as effectively enforced as it was in the States.
 
So something tells me that if prohibition had been put into place, it would've been about as effectively enforced as it was in the States.

I tend to agree with this. In the light of the Finnish experience (which saw national alcohol consumption actually grow during the 1920s), I'd say enforcing the law will be difficult and lacklustre at best even in Sweden and looking the other way will be a national pastime. So the prohibition would not probably make a big dent in alcohol consumption as such.

But there would be big differences in the business of alcohol, as domestic production and consumption would be pushed underground and a lot of foreign (Baltic, Polish, German, Danish) booze would be smuggled to Sweden. It is the business side of this that interests me, as well as the cultural effects and butterflies which would be plentiful.
 
I tend to agree with this. In the light of the Finnish experience (which saw national alcohol consumption actually grow during the 1920s), I'd say enforcing the law will be difficult and lacklustre at best even in Sweden and looking the other way will be a national pastime. So the prohibition would not probably make a big dent in alcohol consumption as such.

But there would be big differences in the business of alcohol, as domestic production and consumption would be pushed underground and a lot of foreign (Baltic, Polish, German, Danish) booze would be smuggled to Sweden. It is the business side of this that interests me, as well as the cultural effects and butterflies which would be plentiful.

I see, well, for that I'm afraid you're going to have to ask someone who actually drinks alcohol :p
 
Nowadays, things are rather free with alcohol, but there is still a black market for private imports, since the taxes are high. On the other hand, moonshining is probably gone, since it is easier to obtain things from across the border, at least in southern Sweden. In the north are perhaps distances too long for this.

Moonshining was huge in Sweden before the EU-borders opened.

A related issue is that there was a mention last year about Sweden being selfsufficient with marijuana or some similar drug, so people are inventive.
 
People seem to forget how much damage Prohibition did to "big government" and the rule of law in the US (especially as the ASL armtwisted both parties into passing it as well as delaying reapportionment by a decade). If something similar happened in Sweden (Nationwide corruption, endemic criminality) it could very well weaken the welfare state and trust in the Swedish government
 
Like the posters above, I think a great deal of alcohol smuggling would result from prohibition being enacted. Not every Swede could set up his own still in their backyard, and even local black-market production, there would be an abundance of foreign alcohol available that would presumably of higher quality that than what could be produced domestically.

In terms of consumption, if Sweden is similar to the US, prohibition would result in a higher relative consumption of hard liquor compared to beer and wine, for the simple fact that it is far easier to smuggle and the same amount of pure alcohol in vodka than beer given the higher % ABV.

I am not very knowledgeable of the politics of Sweden in the 1920's, but assuming that the prohibition law is actually enforced with vigor, I think that such enforcement action could lead to a large increase in the Swedish Coastguard. This would be for the reason that smuggling of foreign alcohol would probably take place overwhelmingly by sea. Crossing the Sound would be the quickest smuggling route, but it would be comparatively easy to patrol such a narrow stretch of sea. That would leave the Baltic as a route for smugglers transporting all manner of continental hard alcohol north.

If the US Coast Guard's experience was replicated in Sweden, then the Generaltullstyrelsen would see a large increase in the size of its patrol fleet, possibly including the cast-off WWI era destroyers. I would wonder if stepped up Swedish Coast Guard activity could have any unintended political consequences in the inevitable event of German, Polish, Danish and other foreign flagged vessels being boarded by the Swedes.

Does anyone think this could lead to a naval buildup in the Baltic during the 1920's?
 
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