WI Surviving Maya Civilization?

As the title implies, what are the long-term consequences for both the Americas and the world if the Mayan civilization were to survive as an independent nation? Before any of you say that it is impossible, remember that although the Mayans were the first to make contact with Europe, they were the last to fall under Spanish domination, the last state going down in 1697. And even then they were fiercely independent, resistant to missionary attempts, and rebellious. To this day many traditional gods are worshiped in some parts and the only success the missionaries had was to make the Christian God the head of their pantheon. A rebel Mayan state began a war for independence that lasted decades from 1847 to 1901. The last independent village fell in 1933.

But what I am wondering is how, if, and what would result from a Mayan state that retains its independence and at least most of its pre-Columbian culture? I wrote the beginnings of a timeline once that I did not publish that had the Classic Mayan states in the lowlands survive by having one of them establish a hegemony over the whole Southern Lowland region. Then they fixed the soil erosion and deforestation problem at least a bit by using terra preta, slash-and-char, instead of slash-and-burn, so they wouldn't have to keep clearing the forests. In addition, most of the changes that marked the Postclassic would still have had to happen and did in my scenario, with less centralization and more power to the popol naah (house of the mat, the ruling council) than to the kinich ahau (holy lord).

If one state were to eventually establish a hegemony over most or even all the Maya area, including northern and southern lowlands in addition to perhaps even the highlands, could they fare better against Spanish and subsequently Mexican rule with their higher population base and more advanced-than-OTL culture? I am also thinking of starting an actual TL about this, never did one before.
 
First of, a thousand apologies for this sinful act of thread necromancy. I just wanted to get back to work trying to get a Maya-survive TL going that can get interesting. But to do so I would need more helpful input to get some ideas reigned in. I'm not even completely sure where my POD would begin, considering I have three major options:

1. Keep the city of El Mirador (Ox Te Tun, biggest Maya city, second-largest pyramid in the Americas, I think) alive into the Classic Period, which would be enough of a superpower to reign in the other Southern cities all into one big Cholan kingdom united under the banner of the snake.

2. Have either Tikal or Calakmul defeat the other completely and survive the Classic Collapse, following the same lines as choice 1, but starting later.

3. Have the League of the Yucatan (Mayapan, Uxmal, and Chichen Itza) become more unified and take over the south after consolidating their hold on the Yucatan itself. This choice might work better combined with on of the others.

How plausible do you think any of these are, and do you think it is at all possible to have a united Mayan kingdom be able to withstand Spanish conquest so it could remain independent, or at least have it survive well enough to strike a deal with Spain and become a vassal or at least have the strength to rebel again and succeed? That was the general plan I had in mind, IRL part of the reason the Mayans fell to Spanish conquest was the Tutul Xiu-allied factions (Tutul Xiu being the family in control of Mani, and formerly Uxmal and Chichen Itza) helped the Spanish against their Cocom rivals (Cocom being in charge of Mayapan). Without these divisions that mirrored the Aztec Conquest, how possible is it for them to survive?
 
I think you would be better off to keep them disunited, that way there is no one state for the Spanish to conquer.

Also have Alvarado killed in the Noche Triste, and someone else leads expeditions into Guatemala.

The command in Merida could decide it's not worth their time to keep sending armies into the jungle to conquer one Mayan city and Tayasal survives past 1697.
 
The problem with the whole idea that their disunited state kept them alive so long is utterly false. Just as the Aztecs were conquered by Tlaxcalans under Spanish command, Cocom-allied city were conquered by the Tutul-Xiu factions under Spanish control. They never really had enough soldiers in either theater to conquer the places on their own, save in Peru. Even then, if the Mayans can survive the Collapse and/or Conquest well enough, they can still be under Spanish control but strong enough to rebel successfully early on. The Mayan rebellion in 1847 came miraculously close to toppling Merida.

I was thinking (well, planning for a TL to go like this) that let's say the Kan kingdom of Calakmul (or El Mirador, whichever you prefer) survives to conquer Tikal and unites the Southern Lowlands. I don't think Tikal could win like it did OTL and still prevent the Collapse or unify the area very well as most states were Kan-aligned, even the Petexbatun which had claims to Tikal's throne. So assuming Kan takes hold and starts implementing reforms, primarily in agriculture (like, starting slash-and-char instead of burn and this will prevent much erosion and deforestation, and support the massive population). Also, some other changes that marked the Collapse would have to be implemented too, like less grand temples being made, and less power to the King, giving more power to the Council of Lords, the elite families.

Meanwhile, in the Northern Lowlands, the Yucatan peninsula, things go pretty much as they did OTL, the building of Mayapan might be butterflied away but Izamal or Tiho is likely to take its place in the formation of a league that controls the area. Tiho would be kinda interesting as Merida is built over it. Ironic, really. Anyways, future conflict between the southern Kan and northern Yucatecs is a given, as they were very much divided culturally and linguistically, and conflict would be very likely over the port of Chetumal and the island of Xicalango, that is, if the southerners get that far. But they'll have at least five-hundred years to settle the conflict, while trade with the Mexicans is likely to rise as the Mexicans would be even more interested in getting to Maya markets, and the shift of power in Mesoamerica would switch from Tenochtitlan to whichever Mayan kingdom wins. A compromise or alliance along the lines of which that formed the League of Mayapan is very well possible, creating, well, the League of Maya. Even if this doesn't radically alter what happens in central Mexico, there are still going to be greater hazards to Spanish conquest. They have a much larger and more united population to fight after all. So... are there any other Mesoamerican experts here that can offer ideas?
 
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Sorry for this, but I really would like the advice of Mesoamerican experts as to how possible it is for a surviving Classic Maya to be able to resist Spanish colonization at least more effectively than OTL. The idea, for my TL I really should start soon, that I was going for was that by the 1520's, most of the Yucatan would be united in a hegemony, much like the superstates of the Late Classic. Basically a more centralized confederacy, if you will, and the leader at the time of Spanish arrival would have to be both very cunning and very cruel for necessity's sake.

The shipwreck survivors, Geronimo Aguilar and Gonzalo Guerrero, would probably end up in the capital. I doubt they'd be able to reach Cortez upon his arrival. Even if Cortez does get a Mayan interpreter of some sort, if he tries to claim himself as Kukulkan he would be subjected to the Interrogation of the Chiefs, and promptly be disemboweled upon discovery that he is a faker. His companions would also be likely put to death, save for those willing to collaborate, as Gonzalo would likely do just like in OTL.

My idea was for then to have later waves of conquistadors attempt to conquer Yucatan, but if the high king was cunning and cruel enough, he'd be able to quarantine infected villages and keep rival factions from aiding the Spanish by making brutal examples of collaborators. OTL, just as the Tlaxcalans were instrumental in Aztec defeat, it was rival Mayans who made up the bulk of Spanish armies. That, and Aztecs themselves. Eventually the war would drag on, I doubt the Mayans would be able to win outright, but they can fight long enough to be able to deal with the king and negotiate. A likely settlement would be the cessation of violence and halt to missionary activity in return for exclusive trade rights with Spain, and small Spanish enclaves run by the Church and Crown in some ports, namely Cozumel and perhaps Campeche.

But I need to know if any experts find anything totally wrong about this. Hopefully I am not the only one who knows of the subject. Anyways, another major problem perhaps more could help me with would be the butterflies. I was assuming Mexico is still conquered, but likely more gently, but Cortez and Alvarado are dead, Malinche has been relegated to the sidelines of history, and those three were highly instrumental in the Aztecs' defeat. And even if Mexico still falls, and the Inca too, I'm still not sure of whether there are possible butterflies in European history too. Would the British and French struggle to get trade rights with the Mayans? Would they try to invade, and if so, would Spanish defend the natives? Perhaps more importantly, would the Armada still be undertaken?
 
My idea was for then to have later waves of conquistadors attempt to conquer Yucatan, but if the high king was cunning and cruel enough, he'd be able to quarantine infected villages and keep rival factions from aiding the Spanish by making brutal examples of collaborators.

This is going to sound sort of gruesome, but any Native American faction that you want to survive is going to need to undergo a period of plague and pestilence upon contact with European powers. You can't just quarantine certain villages and hope for the best, even if you're successful at containing that particular outbreak the Spanish aren't going away. You'll keep getting outbreak after outbreak every time there's contact with the outside world. You need a period of general outbreak so your society can develop a general immunity.

The best way to handle disease is to give the native civilization space to be able to survive and recover from the plague.
 
This is going to sound sort of gruesome, but any Native American faction that you want to survive is going to need to undergo a period of plague and pestilence upon contact with European powers. You can't just quarantine certain villages and hope for the best, even if you're successful at containing that particular outbreak the Spanish aren't going away. You'll keep getting outbreak after outbreak every time there's contact with the outside world. You need a period of general outbreak so your society can develop a general immunity.

The best way to handle disease is to give the native civilization space to be able to survive and recover from the plague.
Yes, the quarantines are a very temporary solution. If the plague struck with full force during the Spanish War, they'd have little chance. But then again, we are dealing with a larger population base than OTL. Some estimates place the number of Maya at the height of the Classic Era to be well over over 3 million, and TTL it has likely increased. Assuming the plagues have the same general rate of death (about 30% in the first outbreak) there'd still be millions to combat the few Spanish there are. So perhaps the quarantines are not necessary.
 
Sorry to be such a necromancing post-hog, but I really wanted to get serious about making a great, big Maya-TL despite the apparent lack of interest. Now, the only things preventing me from starting it are three problems.

1) My general idea was to have a League of cities form during the Classic, like the League of Mayapan, so that the Mayans would be more united by still impossible to defeat by taking one city. Also, their society prevents an empire from one city arising anyways. But the problem was; what major Classic-Era city from the Lowlands would be the dominant in that area and one of the 3 or 4 cities leading the League of Yucatan? El Mirador's one option, the biggest city ever and home of the most influential dynasty in Maya history, but their fall might have to be the impetus to start the reforms that stop the Collapse of civilization there.

2) Recent research just plopped a major road-block in my way. Just when I think I'm finally close to figuring out how the place was run, I find some research by Mayanists about religious and civil politics regarding the twenty-year periods called katuns. I doubt anyone else hear would know, understand, or care about it, but leaving it just seems wrong. Shouldn't trouble you guys about it, but it sure is troubling me.

3) Least important, no idea for the name. My only idea yet was "Land of Turkey and Deer" (the OTL Maya name for the Yucatan) but it seems to be a rip-off of Jared's "The Lands of Red and Gold".

So, is there anybody else with even some minor knowledge about Maya that can help? Once I can figure out the best cities to lead a League, I'm good, but other info would be a great help.
 
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