WI: Surviving Mamluk Egypt and Syria

How could the Mamluks of Egypt, the Levant, Syria and the Hedjaz survive against ottoman expansion?
If they do survive and manage to retain most of their territories, then what are the overall butterflies on...
The Ottoman Empire's expansion?
Persia and Mesopotamia?
Colonialism in East Asia?
 
How damaging (if at all) would the Mamluk system of government be to their prospects of long-term survival? Their half-hereditary, half-acclamation-of-troops system of inheritance made periodic internal rebellions almost inevitable, as well as exposing numerous political cleavages that a potential invader could exploit for advantage. Reliance on Mamluk popularity might also have discouraged Sultans from pursuing the sort of comprehensive reforms needed to compete with other regional powers. I know the Mamluks historically managed to maintain their state for about 2 centuries; I'm just not sure how they did it and whether their 'survival methods' would carry on into the early modern period.

In any case, should the Mamluks survive past the 1500s I suppose their key concern would be to maintain the viability of the India-Egypt-Venice trade route in the face of aggressive Portuguese expansion. A divided Middle East might also have seen the Portuguese take greater risks than they already did, especially regarding raids in the Red Sea or even for Mecca itself...
 
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