WI: Surviving Louis XVII of France

Louis Charles, Dauphin of France (1785-1795), recognised as King Louis XVII by French Monarchists, was the only surviving son of Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette of Austria. The poor boy had quite a tragic life: his parents were both executed, he was separated from his sister Marie Thérèse (who survived the Revolution) and was rather mistreated himself during his imprisonnment. Louis XVII eventually fell ill at age 10 and died in prison.

But what would be the consequences if, like his sister, Louis XVII had survived the Revolution? How would that affect the events?

How would he be considered by the Directory? by Napoleon?
Would he be exchanged against prisonners like the Revolutionnaries did with his sister? Or would his position as nominal ruler/claimant to the French throne appear too dangerous to do so?
Are there chances of the Dauphin being restored on the throne of France before the OTL Restauration?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
I suppose it depends on how he is treated while in prison. As it was he was essentially neglected, which seems like a lost opportunity to me. He was a young boy so its conceivable that he could have been 'reeducated' by the Directory, kind of like what Cromwell tried to do with the young Duke of Gloucester. By 1800 the boy will have spent the majority of his life in the custody of the Republican government, assuming he's not released earlier.

But unless someone strikes upon such a plan the Directory will likely keep him locked away. In that case he'd be a sad shell of a person by the time the Directory is overthrown. Different people may handle captivity differently but there's no denying that locking a seven year old up until he's 14-15 (with no tutors, social interaction, minimal exposure to daylight/outdoors, poor food/living conditions) will have a negative effect on his cognitive and social development. He could end up like Ivan VI.

So then he's Napoleon's problem. I suppose Napoleon may let him go to England as part of the Peace of Amiens. Otherwise he stays locked up, keeping with the Ivan analogy he may do what Catherine did and simple keep the status quo, increasing the guard to make sure he can't be used as a rallying point for the opposition. Either way if he lives long enough to out last Napoleon he'll present some problems. If there is a restoration I assume it will be Louis XVII in name only with the Count of Provence named Regent due to incapacity. But that lack of suitability could imperil a Bourbon restoration in the first place. And any Regency would be rife with sectarian fighting between moderates ultras and other schemers, Provence vs Artois vs Talleyrand and so on.

On the off chance Napoleon does something stupid and Louis XVII dies on his watch it would be like Enghien x10, at least. What other possibilities... let's see, I suppose the Directory could let him go with his sister but that seems unlikely since he's already been recognized as the uncrowned King of France by the emigres. Unless he's been turned by the strong hand of a Republican guardian/tutor (in which case he could do more damage to the royalist-emigre cause if he's freed) it's best to keep him under their control.
 
If he survives the Terror, he'd probably be released, much like his sister. However, his sister was released in return for a large number of captured POWs, and there was some wrangling over who would take her in. For a time, I believe she even went to Vienna as Francis I wanted to carry her to the Archduke Charles. In this situation we might see similar wrangling between Francis I and the OTL Louis XVIII for the Dauphin, but given his status he'll rejoin his uncle. The biggest changes is Provence will never declare himself King. He firstly declared himself Regent, and only King after he knew his nephew was dead. In this case, when/if allied armies enter Paris in 1815, Louis XVII would be restored as King.
 
If in the case he is re educated and everything goes OTL, he could be the figurehead that Napoleon could use when he takes power. Rather than making himself the Emperor, Napoleon can use Louis as the Emperor. This may lead to the peace that Napoleon so much desired and also there would be the case of the French hegemony in Europe with the legitimate monarch now incharge.

In the above case, Napoleon will be Louis XVII what Richelieu was to Louis XIII. Also, if I am not wrong, there is a timeline wherein Louis XVII survives and is reeducated. Also Napoleon takes power in France and names him his heir.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
I hadn't thought of Napoleon using him as a puppet, its an interesting idea. Would Napoleon's ego really allow it? I suppose Napoleon could be given a prestigious Duchy, maybe even Duke of (the Ile-de-)France, maybe revive the old position of Constable of France for him as well. But what about Napoleon's brothers, who were more committed to Republicanism, how would they react?

As for the Directory letting him go, I suppose I'm skeptical. He's already been acknowledged as King by their enemies so they know that the people who are actively working to defeat them would place this boy on the throne in their place. Does it really make much sense for them to hand him over? Is the Directory really that confidant in the strength of its position in France that they could take that risk? Unless they've turned him against his royalist cousins it seems like a dangerous gamble. He'd undoubtedly become a puppet for the emigres to use to rally support to their cause.
 
I hadn't thought of Napoleon using him as a puppet, its an interesting idea. Would Napoleon's ego really allow it? I suppose Napoleon could be given a prestigious Duchy, maybe even Duke of (the Ile-de-)France, maybe revive the old position of Constable of France for him as well. But what about Napoleon's brothers, who were more committed to Republicanism, how would they react?

As for the Directory letting him go, I suppose I'm skeptical. He's already been acknowledged as King by their enemies so they know that the people who are actively working to defeat them would place this boy on the throne in their place. Does it really make much sense for them to hand him over? Is the Directory really that confidant in the strength of its position in France that they could take that risk? Unless they've turned him against his royalist cousins it seems like a dangerous gamble. He'd undoubtedly become a puppet for the emigres to use to rally support to their cause.

Yes, they probably would. By the time of the Directory, those who wanted to restore the monarchy or revive the Terror was low on both ends of the spectrum. Of course the Directory had it's own corruption, but it was regarded as a better alternative than anything else. It had a more conservative franchise and was essentially accepted as the government that divided France the least, much as the third republic in 1870. The Directory was also the first stable government since 1789. Of course, it was mostly stable because of it's victories and the plunder coming out of foreign countries... but that is a whole other issue. They'd probably still release the boy. By 1795, the Bourbons were living in exile in Latvia and was all but anonymous exiles. Had you told them they'd be restored to their throne twenty years later, they would've found it quite unbelievable. The boy wouldn't just be released into anyone's care. He'd probably go initially to Vienna with his sister (like her, he has Habsburg blood and would be related to the Emperor), and then would be taken in by the Count of Provence.

Napoleon would not use him as a puppet. I believe Louis XVIII himself offered Napoleon to be Constable of France if he restored the Bourbons, but Napoleon refused to be the power behind the throne, His personality isn't going to be changed by a little boy surviving. He'll rule himself and with his own powers, he won't rule behind the throne and had no desire to be another George Washington.
 
I hadn't thought of Napoleon using him as a puppet, its an interesting idea. Would Napoleon's ego really allow it? I suppose Napoleon could be given a prestigious Duchy, maybe even Duke of (the Ile-de-)France, maybe revive the old position of Constable of France for him as well. But what about Napoleon's brothers, who were more committed to Republicanism, how would they react?

Of all the Bonaparte children only Lucien seems to have been truly 'committed' to Republicanism. Whatever their personal ideology all the rest were brought off in the imperial period by being named monarchs of the various conquered territories - Joseph in Naples-Sicily, then Spain; Elisa in Lucca, Piombino, and Tuscany; Louis in Holland; Pauline in Guastalla; Caroline in Berg & Cleves, then Naples; and Jérôme in Westphalia. Even then Lucien eventually came around to the idea of the empire, returning to France after Napoléon's abdication, becoming Prince of Canino, rallying to his brother's side during the Hundred Days, and later also becoming Prince of Musignano.

So in any TL where Napoléon doesn't become emperor but still retains de-facto power the various Bonapartes will likely still rise to positions of power on their family name.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
IIRC, there was some talk of making Nappy connétable de France in exchange for restoring the Bourbons, but nothing came of it. Then again, the only options for king were Provence and Artois, so I can't say I blame Napoleon for passing up the offer.
 
While there is the case that France's enemies had already proclaimed Louis as king, a re-educated Louis would not like the idea of divine right of Kings. He would instead accept the constitution of France and he might be used by Napoleon as a figurehead. As we know that Louis XVIII offered him to be the Constable of France, but in this case Napoleon can weild the power and also have a scapegoat if any of his actions result in negetive.

This might also have an effect that Napoleon is less of an egoist and makes sure that he and his family still prosper. He will be in the best position to exploit Louis if he manages to overthrow the directory. A re-educated Louis with Napoleon will seemingly be dangerous for the HRE as not only will it not have any reason to go against France but France will still be the most dangerous power in Europe.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Yes, they probably would. By the time of the Directory, those who wanted to restore the monarchy or revive the Terror was low on both ends of the spectrum. Of course the Directory had it's own corruption, but it was regarded as a better alternative than anything else. It had a more conservative franchise and was essentially accepted as the government that divided France the least, much as the third republic in 1870. The Directory was also the first stable government since 1789. Of course, it was mostly stable because of it's victories and the plunder coming out of foreign countries... but that is a whole other issue. They'd probably still release the boy. By 1795, the Bourbons were living in exile in Latvia and was all but anonymous exiles. Had you told them they'd be restored to their throne twenty years later, they would've found it quite unbelievable. The boy wouldn't just be released into anyone's care. He'd probably go initially to Vienna with his sister (like her, he has Habsburg blood and would be related to the Emperor), and then would be taken in by the Count of Provence.

Napoleon would not use him as a puppet. I believe Louis XVIII himself offered Napoleon to be Constable of France if he restored the Bourbons, but Napoleon refused to be the power behind the throne, His personality isn't going to be changed by a little boy surviving. He'll rule himself and with his own powers, he won't rule behind the throne and had no desire to be another George Washington.

Ok, fair enough. Perhaps I'm looking at it too much from the perspective of the strategic situation of '92-93 and not '95. I'm mostly with you on Napoleon. Its an interesting idea but it just seems unlikely given what we know of him. Though I think there's a narrow window if Louis is still in France and has been brought around politically during the Directory for him to be installed as a puppet constitutional monarch when the Directory is overthrown. From obscure artillery officer to Constable of France and power behind the throne is still a remarkable ascension. So under select circumstances it seems at least plausible. So the question becomes not whether Napoleon would do it but how likely is it that all those starts align precisely to provide him that option.

I still think how he is used at every juncture (by the Directory, by Napoleon, during a possible restoration) depends upon how Louis develops as he grows up. I think one has to question whether he'd been mentally stable or competent if he's imprisoned much past 1795 under OTL like conditions, let alone what his socio-political outlook would be.
 
Napoleon's ego won't allow himself to be subordinate to a half-wit for any length of time, but Napoleon is not the only person in position to make a go of it. I would expect Talleyrand to decide Boney had jumped the shark by 1806, possibly even earlier, and dispose of him in favor of (probably) Massena.

The kid is legally an adult in 1799 regardless of his actual abilities. And there is a manipulator in the French government with abilities far beyond Napoleon's...it won't be Napoleon in control of the state or the army for any length of time. Talleyrand needs a figurehead, OTL he settled for Napoleon, TTL he wouldn't have to settle.
 
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