WI: Surviving Kalmar Union

What if the Kalmar Union between Sweden, Norway and Denmark evolves into a lasting and united Scandinavia? How does this change the Thirty Years War? What about the Napoleonic Wars?
 
Well you'll first need to establish under what form the union exists. Sweden and Norway were always minor partners in what was esssentially a very medieval construction, a feudal union of nobles aligning themselves with the danish monarchy.

To continue the Union into the TYW you'll need the danish monarchy to keep their relationship with the swedes stable, not an easy task as we are talking about a union where the largest member, Sweden, is subject to a minor power, Denmark. Given the resources and brilliant leadership that Sweden had compared to Denmark in the period following the union it'll be hard to argue against the dissolution of the union.

What line of kings will the union have? Danish kings in the period you mention, from the Kalmar union till the napoleonic wars, were almost all completely incompetent. If we continue the OTL union being dominated by Denmark then bad leadership will be imminent.

My best bet would be that if the swedish rebellions are kept under control by Christian 2. Sweden grudingly stays in the union. When Christian 4. enters the TYW and attacks the German Imperials from the north he'll probably still squander his army given how horrible a tactician the guy was. The swedes will take this as a nice chance to rebel and the Union is out of the war.

If such a rebellion is put down and the union continues into the napoleonic wars the even more hilariously incompetent Frederik 6. will probably try to maintain armed neutrality. With Sweden and Denmark united the Union has control of the Oresund strait leading into the baltic making the two countries vital in securing English-Russian interests, making them an obvious target. If Frederik is stupid enough (which he is, given his OTL behavior) he will insist on not joining either England or Russia. The English will take on the Union fleet and seperate Denmark from Sweden, and either give an independent Sweden to whoever promises loyalty, be it the Russians or a Swedish king. If the Russians get Sweden they'll gobble up Norway eventually and from there the Union is officially no longer feasible.

If you somehow make the Union a Swedish-dominated power then the sky's the limit. Let's say Margarate 1. marries an important swedish prince and creates a new dynasty. If things go smoothly for the next hundred or so years a very powerful protestant empire will arise in the North. There's still the problem of being between the important German and Russian groups, but if the Kalmar monarchs play their cards cards right they might be able to create a power great enough to prevent the establishment of a central authorithy in either Germany or Russia. Then we might have power struggles between the Nordic, Austrian, English and French Empires in Europe over the next odd hundreds of years.

In the end though I don't believe the Kalmar union will remain a great power. The population is too small and their resources too few in the end, they'd have to rely on Swedish ore to craft most of their weapons for example. In the end a Kalmar Union might at best accomplish what Gustav Adolph did, only a little better due to the few extra resources from Denmark and Norway and the benefit of fewer internal nordic wars.
 
beyond the fact that the favorite hobby for Danes and Swedes at the time were hating each other, the primary issue for a continued Kalmar if lack of enough argicultural farmland, and a following lack of peasants to make it a viable protect to chop down the south swedish forests for a bit more argiultural farmland (which still wouldn't be enough), leading to a to small population to stay in front line against relative behemoths such as a unifying Germany (or even a halfway argeeing HRE), France, England/Britain or later on Russia (although a Russia born out of Novogrod might be a more successful attempt, due to their much weaker position, both due geographical and social focus, in the east european steppe lands from Kiev eastwards)

While such a country might well be able to keep up on naval and trade demands (not unalike Netherlands, prehaps even better due to the control of the Baltics and the forests of North Sweden and Norway delivering timber for shipbuilding), as soon as you start putting pressure on the population via a need for an army, it would crack (well, not right away, but all their protential opponents have a much deeper supply)
 
beyond the fact that the favorite hobby for Danes and Swedes at the time were hating each other, the primary issue for a continued Kalmar if lack of enough argicultural farmland

Never heard about that before, Denmark has tons of good farmland with little trouble feeding a population of about 1 million from medieval times through the next few centuries. Much could easily be exported to the Swedes if need be.

That being said population might still be a problem for a Scandinavia with ambitions. Though as you point out that's not as big a problem if your power is mainly naval.
 

Butterflies?:rolleyes:

The problems you mentioned still aren't going away, though. Sweden is more populous than Denmark, even if Denmark keeps Skane and Holstein. The real problem here is you have three Kingdoms pulling in three different directions. Sweden is looking East, towards the Baltic Nations and Finland, Denmark south, towards all those German cities they've lain claim to, and Norway may eventually look West, to both their holdings in the North Sea and eventually America.

What is really needed to keep the Union alive short term is a series of competent Danish Kings, and then something serving to unite the countries. Outside threats really help with this, and Russia could be a perfect example- if the Union grabs some Duchies on the other side of the Baltic like Sweden did OTL, it may have to fight an expansive Muscovy/Russia. Danish, Swedish, and Norwegian troops fighting side by side defending the Kalmar Union could go a long way in keeping the Union together.

Eventually, the emphasis will have to be placed on the "Scandinavianess" of the Union, with the idea being the union is best for all involved. A shared brand of Protestianism, like OTL, with the Scandinavian King seeing himself as the defender of such a religion, would go a long way. Once we journey 40-50 years past the PoD, everything's speculative, but the point is there needs to be just as much bringing the Union together as there is driving them apart.

The biggest problem is always going to be Sweden- they had powerful nobles that really didn't care for a Danish King. Somehow, they have to be convinced that a King in Copenhagen is better than a King in Stockholm.
 
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