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Ok, my timeline didn't get all that many responses, so let's try a different tact here.
The biggest reason the Armada was crushed was the massive defeats at the hands of the English: mostly at the Battle of Gravelines (I think that's the name).
It's been generally acknowledged that a Spanish victory is either (1) ASB, and/or (2) relatively bad for Spain.
But let's say a POD of, Oh, the Dutch Revolt not kicking off means Philip II doesn't plan a retaliatory strike against the English = no attacking the English on their own soil.
Instead, the English take the fight to the Spanish at a later date (growing bolder and bolder), and they end up loosing (say, the decisive battle happens in the Caribbean = Spanish turf).