WI Sun Quan does not attack Liu Bei for Jingzhou

In otl the big reason for Shu being unable to defeat Wei was because Shu lacked the logistics and manpower. However what if after the red cliffs. Rather than turn on Liu Bei, Sun Quan decides to not move on Jingzhou. Lets say instead he aides Shu against Wei. At this time Cao Cao was still recovering from red cliffs. So what if Sun Quan moved North to engage Cao Cao's forces at the same time as Zhuge liang launches his Northern Campaigns. Could Imperial Uncle Liu Bei and Lord Sun Quan's drives be able to overwhelm Imperial Chancellor Cao Cao. If so what would happen next and between Wu and Shu which side would triumph after Cao Cao is killed.

Plus with no XIaoting Gaun Yu and Zhang fei do not die nor does Shu suffer a crippling loss of men and supplies.
 
For a while Shu and Wu did continue their alliance as Wu did attack Hefei at the same time Shu went after Hanzhong. That went well for Shu, but Wu were humilliated so they weren't keen on anymore fights against Wei for a while. If things go better at Hefei then Wu might not want Jing so much and then there is a chance they can take Wei down together. But Wei are going to do everything in their power to separate them and they only need to be lucky once. The odds are in Wei's favour.
But if they do prevail, then anything could happen. I think it would depend on who has the most resources at the end and who has the most capable leaders.
 
Long term, the only thing that matters is the North. Once it's organized and secured, no amount of southern unity is relevant. But this is short term, so.

Total chaos. I agree that anything could happen. Shu, Wu, or both could easily break much of what had been built in the north, but taking it would be a much different matter. The land's not like the south. It's indefensible until you already have most all of it, so the only real conquest that can add to anyone's strength is securing the defection of northern warlords. All land gets you is peasants you can extort a bit out of before moving on, which isn't that great in a war where scorched Earth is a thing. The trouble is, if Cao Cao is going down and the Shu and Wu aren't completely devoted to cooperation, those generals best interests would probably be better served by making a bid themselves, not defecting.

So if Wei breaks, the immediate result is a reversion to the earlier period of multi-sided war in the north, before Cao Cao came out on top. But now one of the main factions has a secure base in Sichuan, and the country's heartland is even more wrecked. Absent an incredible opportunity, Wu probably doesn't strike too far north, given the men running things, but consolidates further.

Interestingly, while Cao Cao lives, so technically does the Han dynasty, and there are a lot of people who'd restore it given custody of the emperor. Not most maybe, but some.
 
Long term, the only thing that matters is the North. Once it's organized and secured, no amount of southern unity is relevant. But this is short term, so.

Total chaos. I agree that anything could happen. Shu, Wu, or both could easily break much of what had been built in the north, but taking it would be a much different matter. The land's not like the south. It's indefensible until you already have most all of it, so the only real conquest that can add to anyone's strength is securing the defection of northern warlords. All land gets you is peasants you can extort a bit out of before moving on, which isn't that great in a war where scorched Earth is a thing. The trouble is, if Cao Cao is going down and the Shu and Wu aren't completely devoted to cooperation, those generals best interests would probably be better served by making a bid themselves, not defecting.

So if Wei breaks, the immediate result is a reversion to the earlier period of multi-sided war in the north, before Cao Cao came out on top. But now one of the main factions has a secure base in Sichuan, and the country's heartland is even more wrecked. Absent an incredible opportunity, Wu probably doesn't strike too far north, given the men running things, but consolidates further.

Interestingly, while Cao Cao lives, so technically does the Han dynasty, and there are a lot of people who'd restore it given custody of the emperor. Not most maybe, but some.
Most people would recognize Liu Bei as Emperor as well. After all he is imperial uncle and part of the same dynasty Liu.


Also i agree with you about the balkanization of the north once more and the multi fronted war which will happen if cao cao falls from power. However would it be possible with a broken Wei for Zhuge Liang to succeed in his Northern campaigns and take the Imperial capital? Not al of the North but capture the capital. If he does do you think Lu Bei will depose his nephew or will he do what Cao Cao did and keep his nephew as a puppet. Also if Liu Bei proclaims himself emperor ,will the other generals recognize him or not.

By the way at this time their was no shu, wei, wu as we know them. Their was simply three sides. The Imperial uncle Liu Bei governor of Jingzhou. The Chancellor of Han Cao Cao. Finally you had Sun Quan Marquis of Wu brother of the famed warlord Sun Ce. He had not yet even declared himself King of Wu I believe. No side had yet declared themselves emperor. Besides Liu Bei did not till 223 well after the battle of xiaoting.

On the other hand if Cao Cao is discredited could the han emperor have any chance of breaking from his influence. After all with Cao armies broken, his disastrous failure in putting down Liu bei and Sun Quan, I could easily see factions within the Han court move against him. Its another possibility.
 
While Liu Bei and Sun Quan did have an alliance, the issue was that Shu (calling it that for simplicity) went and took the Jing province during and shortly after Red Cliff. This was a huge insult to Wu since they had claims to the area, had made it known to Shu that they had claims there, and screwed them out of it while the Wu armies were taking the brunt of the Wei force at Red Cliff when they were supposed to be in an alliance.

Liu Bei needed Jing in order to get the men and resources he needed to secure his base of power out of Hanzhong, otherwise he was just an army without a land. If he had made something of an offer to Wu after taking Hanzhong to give at least part of Jing over to them, then an attack could have been avoided.

While a more successful battle for Wu at He Fei may have sated their territorial lust for awhile, they ultimately wanted Jing. When Guan Yu launched his attack from Jing it gave Wu an opportunity they couldn't pass up.

Getting back to the question at hand now. Had no attack been launched on Jing then Wei would have been pushed back more but the most Shu and Wu could have hoped for would be that the regional governors decide to revoke their loyalty to Cao Cao by seeing him as too weak. If that happens and Wu and Shu push that all the way then you'd have two kingdoms ruling China, east and west. From that point it's a matter of working out a deal to restore the Han because (contrary to what Dynasty Warriors shows) Shu and Wu had great relations even after Yi Ling. Liu Bei didn't even launch an attack on Wu after finding out that Guan Yu had been killed; it was some time after actually.
 
well one way to avoid the dispute is if Guan yu married his daughter to Sun Quan's son therey not enraging SUn Quan in 219.Plus such a marraige would bring Sun Quan closer to Liu Bei then to Cao Cao and perhaps prevent the Cao-Sun allaince against Guan Yu.
 
well one way to avoid the dispute is if Guan yu married his daughter to Sun Quan's son therey not enraging SUn Quan in 219.Plus such a marraige would bring Sun Quan closer to Liu Bei then to Cao Cao and perhaps prevent the Cao-Sun allaince against Guan Yu.
That's one theory, I'm not sure if she was married yet or not, but if it gave the Sun family a way in to Jing without war then they'd probably take it. Especially since the Cao-Sun alliance was simply one of convenience.
 
Though his reputation may be oft-exaggerated by Romance of the Three Kingdoms, I would suggest Pang Tong's survival might be the key to Sun Quan being content with not attacking Jing.

With Pang Tong alive, he could be put in charge of Jing, where his diplomatic skills as a learned scholar would be preferable to that of Guan Yu's temperaments due to his being a military man, which often pissed off Sun Quan to the point that when Guan Yu emptied his based to attack the North, Sun Quan couldn't resist the urge for revenge over past humiliations.
 
Now with Northern China is balkanized and in choas, would Nomads conquer and unity Northern China?
Doubt it since this is a good deal of time before they attacked the Western Jing in OTL. The north would probably start breaking up into warlords that, if they don't wise up and swear loyalty, will get swept away by Shu and Wu. At that point those two will either: 1) work out a deal to live in peace; 2) figure out how to properly restore the Han; 3) go at each other for supremacy.
 

PhilippeO

Banned
Nomads already in China at that time. Gongzun San and Yuan Shao had nomad soldier under them. Ma Teng and Ma Chao build their reputation by fighting nomad. Cao Cao also had Qiang tribesmen under him. if North China fall into Chaos, they will become a lot stronger.

Shu and Wu had massive weakness on Cavalry; Wu didn't have any strong Cavalry; Shu only had Ma family cavalry; most other units are infantry. it is doubtful Shu and Wu could actually topple Cao Cao, conquering the entire North from Sichuan and South would be nearly impossible. Until Ming dinasty, all China dinasty come from North, Cavalry and North China Plain is huge advantage to northeners.
 
Nomads already in China at that time. Gongzun San and Yuan Shao had nomad soldier under them. Ma Teng and Ma Chao build their reputation by fighting nomad. Cao Cao also had Qiang tribesmen under him. if North China fall into Chaos, they will become a lot stronger.

Shu and Wu had massive weakness on Cavalry; Wu didn't have any strong Cavalry; Shu only had Ma family cavalry; most other units are infantry.

Ma Cavalry?

Is that
1) where they got their name from
2) a different ma
3) a total coincidence, but ironic
??
 
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