WI: Successful Spanish Armada

What if the spanish armada succeeds in invading England?

It always seemed like a bit of a daft plan to be honest. So Spain lands their army, the English army is defeated, and Spain marches into London. Then what? Put a catholic on the throne? Rule England directly? There's no way that Spain could have controlled England long-term and any anti-Protestant actions they undertake are just going to stoke anti-Catholic feelings. I think the best that they could have done if they wanted to preserve Spanish influence in England was to install a Catholic monarch who was tolerant and scrupulously evenhanded when dealing with Protestants, but that was never going to happen.

Within a few years the English revolt and the Spanish are forced to cut their losses and retreat. Catholics are then persecuted harshly throughout England. Spain is significantly weakened by the expense of trying and failing to control England.
 
It always seemed like a bit of a daft plan to be honest. So Spain lands their army, the English army is defeated, and Spain marches into London. Then what? Put a catholic on the throne? Rule England directly? There's no way that Spain could have controlled England long-term and any anti-Protestant actions they undertake are just going to stoke anti-Catholic feelings. I think the best that they could have done if they wanted to preserve Spanish influence in England was to install a Catholic monarch who was tolerant and scrupulously evenhanded when dealing with Protestants, but that was never going to happen.

Within a few years the English revolt and the Spanish are forced to cut their losses and retreat. Catholics are then persecuted harshly throughout England. Spain is significantly weakened by the expense of trying and failing to control England.

Of course, English society is also likely changed by such a disruptive and potentially violent experience. I'm not sure exactly how, but there would undoubtedly be some big changes down the line.
 
You have to get around the fact that the Duke of Parma had made no preparations for the Armada's arrival to the fact that he knew that the galleons would never fit into the docks in the Netherlands. You also have overcome how many logistical problems for the Armada to succeed. IMO a successful Spanish Armada is roughly on par with Operation S*****n in terms of implausibility, but that's my opinion.
 
I would tend to think they would have tried to pull what they did in France during the Wars of Religion and would have eventually more mattered to Spanish continental policy.

We shouldn't forget that once Mary was out of the equation, the main strategical goal was to cut off England with Netherlands, in order to isolate as much as possible the revoltees. On this regard, the consequences would be more than interesting.

While I think it would have been too late to crush the Dutch revolt (critically when the Spanish Navy was quite outdated, the twist of this expedition was that it made obvious than drastic changes were needed) it would certainly create a huge prestige boost (the expedition being a copy up to the blessing to the expedition against Turks).

Everything depends on Spanish command : if they're realistic, they'll search for a more or less bland pretender or even could be content with Elizabeth renounciation to Anglicanism and destruction or takeover of most naval infrastructures (it wouldn't remove English potential, far from it, but would allow some breathing space against Netherlands, critically if Spain can use England as a naval harbour when France is getting its shit together at the same moment and as the Ligue is crumbling).
Eventually the support (financial and possibly military) of a political faction searching to not only limit the royal (and parlementarian) power is likely, as what was made with the french Ligue.

I don't see this lasting of course, we're talking short-term there.

If they're idiots, they'll pull the same policy than in Netherlands and it's going to fail. Their armies can conquer easily England and defeat local forces but they would be limited (no reinforcement except from Netherlands, and the situation there didn't allowed massive relocation), "little war" spawning everywhere, France being largely left to Henri IV, and Spain being in the same situation than Napoléon in Spain : a costly, unwinnable war. The bankrupt of Spanish Crown is likely to happen even earlier than IOTL and probably deeper.
 

scholar

Banned
England may rebel, but with Anti-Catholic sentiment raging there, odds are Ireland and perhaps even part of Britain itself would break away. The Spanish can find an English pretender of Catholic stock for the breakaway, or they can send a infante from Spain who would be sured up by the mass exodus of Catholics from Britain to a safe zone.
 
The best Spain can hope is to cause England to become the Low Countries writ large. This is not a good outcome for them :eek:

I think the armada's defeat actually SAVED the Spanish a lot of time, money and blood.
 

Redhand

Banned
Yeah they might not be able to keep England, but if they can execute Elizabeth and destroy Tudor power, especially their navy, they will be better off long term. Ireland could be set independent and be under heavy Spanish influence (remember that Spain had sent troops there for the Desmond Rebellion). A Catholic Monarch was possible to set up, but they would need to be a really good ruler to keep control.

What they might end up doing is in addition to liberating Ireland, they force heavy reparations on the English, basically destroying their maritime power and enriching the Spanish crown at the same time. Phillip was a bit too much of a Catholic idealist for this to happen, but his ministers could probably make him see sense.
 
What if the spanish armada succeeds in invading England?

I began writing a TL on this but it went on hiatus

I'm not going to bother telling you the things needed for a successful Armada, since that's not the question.

Upon Parma's landing in Kent he is met by the 4,000 rabble that were placed there. He easily destroys them and then marches on London. Along the way the English Army attempts to stop him and is defeated then they fall back to London. During their retreat Parma follows and takes London. After this the parliament and Queen get captured and forced to surrender.

Philip then placed Henry Percy a popular English noble who was a Catholic on the throne and marries Percy to Isabella Clara Eugenia.

At this point at time though England was Anglican, Anglicanism was still close to Catholicism. So England can either become a nice Spanish ally or a long war. Well the Spanish are distracted by France King James of Scotland might attack to press his claim. This will make England a nice Spanish Ally. Because James will not garner lots of support, sure he'll garner some but not a lot. Using this war Henry can secure his throne.

Longterm: England becomes Catholic once more, Spain loses more money on wars, Spain's colonial empire is larger, because of delayed English and French start.
 
Okay, I'm planning a more detailed response to this which I will put up tomorrow, but first, a simple question...

How exactly, in all these possibles, does the Armada, or as I like to call it, the Leon Marino succeed?

Trust me--that's a trickier question than it sounds.
 

Redhand

Banned
I began writing a TL on this but it went on hiatus

I'm not going to bother telling you the things needed for a successful Armada, since that's not the question.

Upon Parma's landing in Kent he is met by the 4,000 rabble that were placed there. He easily destroys them and then marches on London. Along the way the English Army attempts to stop him and is defeated then they fall back to London. During their retreat Parma follows and takes London. After this the parliament and Queen get captured and forced to surrender.

Philip then placed Henry Percy a popular English noble who was a Catholic on the throne and marries Percy to Isabella Clara Eugenia.

At this point at time though England was Anglican, Anglicanism was still close to Catholicism. So England can either become a nice Spanish ally or a long war. Well the Spanish are distracted by France King James of Scotland might attack to press his claim. This will make England a nice Spanish Ally. Because James will not garner lots of support, sure he'll garner some but not a lot. Using this war Henry can secure his throne.

Longterm: England becomes Catholic once more, Spain loses more money on wars, Spain's colonial empire is larger, because of delayed English and French start.

This is actually pretty good. What is important for this to work is that power is shifted to the still largely Catholic North and that London is made into a bastion of Catholicism and secured from threat. As long as there is toleration for the Anglicans, who can influenced to shift further and further towards ritualism and Catholicism, civil order can be maintained.

Elizabeth has to go, however. She would always be a problem. She could quietly have an "accident" in the Tower of London.
 
This is actually pretty good. What is important for this to work is that power is shifted to the still largely Catholic North and that London is made into a bastion of Catholicism and secured from threat. As long as there is toleration for the Anglicans, who can influenced to shift further and further towards ritualism and Catholicism, civil order can be maintained.

Elizabeth has to go, however. She would always be a problem. She could quietly have an "accident" in the Tower of London.

Yeah Henry isn't stupid enough to pull a Bloody Mary

Yep
 
Okay, seeing as my question has been ignored, I'm asking it again--how does the Spanish Armada succeed? How does a force which, popular legend aside, reached the other end of the English Channel intact succeed when it has to deal with this...

You have to get around the fact that the Duke of Parma had made no preparations for the Armada's arrival to the fact that he knew that the galleons would never fit into the docks in the Netherlands.

Because let's make it clear--despite all the legends, no, the English never managed a knock-out blow. At best they managed a competent, but hardly spectacular resistance, even in the famed Battle of Gravelines. But then, they didn't need one. The Spanish Armada died piecemeal, the way most such things do, of its own impossible ambitions. The entire expedition was very much the result of men staring at maps declaring that of course, of course, all they have to do is this and success would follow, while ignoring the objections of the people on the ground.

And now... a quick comment on a comment...

Everything depends on Spanish command : if they're realistic, they'll search for a more or less bland pretender or even could be content with Elizabeth renounciation to Anglicanism and destruction or takeover of most naval infrastructures (it wouldn't remove English potential, far from it, but would allow some breathing space against Netherlands, critically if Spain can use England as a naval harbour when France is getting its shit together at the same moment and as the Ligue is crumbling).
Eventually the support (financial and possibly military) of a political faction searching to not only limit the royal (and parlementarian) power is likely, as what was made with the french Ligue.

I don't see this lasting of course, we're talking short-term there.

If they're idiots, they'll pull the same policy than in Netherlands and it's going to fail. Their armies can conquer easily England and defeat local forces but they would be limited (no reinforcement except from Netherlands, and the situation there didn't allowed massive relocation), "little war" spawning everywhere, France being largely left to Henri IV, and Spain being in the same situation than Napoléon in Spain : a costly, unwinnable war. The bankrupt of Spanish Crown is likely to happen even earlier than IOTL and probably deeper.

Philip was already making his claim to the English throne when the Armada set out.

Does that make the intelligence of Spanish command in this matter clear?

Also, regarding that faction seeking to limit royal power--such a thing was stirring into existence at this time. Among the Puritans.

So good luck to Spain signing them on.
 
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Philip was already making his claim to the English throne when the Armada set out.
I didn't find any credible mention of that (sure, a lot of "Spain was gonna invade and Inquisition was going to kill everyone for Phillip crowning himself as king").
After the death of Mary, he lacked any real ground for claiming anything, and basing himself on the respect of traditional and catholic institutions, couldn't pull a Paradox game move to take-over England.

Does that make the intelligence of Spanish command in this matter clear?
I understand Spanish Dark Legend still have its amators, but let's consider them as able of basic reflexion as their opponents, shall we?

First, a bit of context would help. Remember that Philipp not only tolerated Elizabeth as an anglican queen (mostly in order to avoid a Valois presence in Britain and more generally in Atlantic) but actively tried to prevent the Roman Church to pursue an aggressive stance.
The relations between Spain and England worsened essentially due to the English policy towards Netherlands (namely supporting the revolt).

It's relativly safe to assume that in face of its main geopolitical goals (Ottomans in Mediterranea and Dutch in Europe) as highlited for example by the Treaty of Joinville, critically with the French situation becoming more hard to hold with the political establishment of Bourbons - even before the death of Henri III - Philipp II would turn to his usual English policy : prevent the appearance of a northern and atlantic European entente.

Depending on how the Spanish expedition fare, and how politically skilled could be the commanders. Personally, I think that Alexander Farnese actually taking care of the situation would be needed.

The man prooved to be prone to compromise on strategical level.
The main goal, again, being the repression of Dutch revolt, I would rather see him either letting Elizabeth I on throne (it helped that she was far less enthusiast on the war, seeing Netherlands more as a political lever than a goal in her negociations with Spain) under several conditions (such as naval limitations and imposing a successor), or (depending on the pressure made on the expedition and policy of Elizabeth) choosing another king while it may proove hard giving the rarity of clear candidates, rather than loose time and ressources in face of Dutch and French fronts.

People as Medina Sidona could be, on this regard, more prone to comply before pressure (while not ourtight ignoring Philipp's interests, but the king didn't had a clear plan on it, and would have focused more on different fronts) and to be less efficient, both on long and short term (maybe a second Spanish-English war in the 90's)


Also, regarding that faction seeking to limit royal power--such a thing was stirring into existence at this time. Among the Puritans.

So good luck to Spain signing them on.
As surprising it might be, Puritains and Court weren't the only groups in existance as would be two poles of a magnet.
Not only such groups were heterogenous (Elizabeth being far more cautious than her council, or Puritains being divided) but more informal "interest groups" (as we could call them nowadays) could be called if not created outright (as Philip heavily supported what were at first several catholic movements to become the powerful Ligue).

I would tend to think, depending on the skills of Spanish responsible, that the rural "middle-class" and the high aristocracy may be the main beneficiaries, as well a good part of maritime middle-class trying to compromise to avoid having their naval edge being damaged too importantly.

(At this point it's a matter of these groups managing to compromise between themselves in a first place, maybe using the prestige of a noble outside the Elizabethan council, and then both Spaniards and these English to reach a quick agreement).

As an aside, you misunderstood and partially ignored the point : reject of both royal and parlementarian power. Basically reject of hegemonic powers gaining more political reach that they traditionally had. Without turning to pre-Tudor situation (something that would have been impossible anyway), I could rather see one or different groups working on this base and while failing to stop the process of bureaucratisation and hegemonic power, at least try to temper it by political "lobbying".

I'm not talking about an half-millenarist/religiously based political stance, or reject of Elizabeth as such, but reject of personal royal power (I should have precised, my bad) that was the subject of much criticism since the 70's in the Parliment (as the refusal of the queen to marry or designate an heir prooved).
 
A good POD is Bazan not dieing. He can effectively lead the Spanish and make sure that tjlhere shot is correctly organized
 
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