WI: Successful Siberian Seperatism?

Is there any feasibility that the Green Ukraine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine) separatism movement could achieve independance from the Soviet Union? What do you think?

(hard mode: Have it escape being reconquered by Russia or conquered by the Imperial Japanese, and/or expand to occupy more of Russian Siberia)

EDIT: If you want to use the White Russian movement instead of the Green Ukraine movement to keep parts of Far East Russia independent that would also be awesome.
 
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Have the Americans stay about protecting the area, perhaps with the Japanese helping out to make themselves look good, gain northern Sakhalin, and keep a buffer in between then and the Soviets, as well as keeping European control over the Russian zones and monopolies that the Soviets renounced. They lied, of course, keeping them while reaping praise by the Chinese public. On a side note, this area just barely qualifies as Siberian.
 
Yeah, Green Ukraine is part of what is known as the Russian Far East, a geographic region distinct from Siberia. But, you could likely get a Japanese or joint Japanese-American occupied area in Green Ukraine. Would be interesting butterflies in regards to the Japanese invading Manchuria later (they would do this, they always had the ambition to).
 
Yeah, Russian Far East shouldn't really be called Siberia... especially the Southern part. My bad.
I think that maybe we should see support from Outer Mongolia? Possibly the Pan-Mongolian State supported by Semyonov actually manages to come into being, at least temporarily?
A Pan-Mongolian state supported by White Russia and Japan as a weapon against both the Bolsheviks and the Chinese is an interesting possibility. It would also make securing Far-Eastern independance a lot easier... Green Ukraine would probably be a Japanese/American aligned state. I can see it gradually becomming more Pro-American though; there are a few territorial conflicts with Japan that would need to be resolved, and especially when China invades what remains of Manchuria I could see the Green Ukraine becoming a bit worried.
We could also see further Ukrainian settlement of the region following the defeat of Ukraine-seperatist movements. An influx of White Russian refugees is also possible. Green Ukraine would inherit the remainder of the Russian Pacific fleet, which would be key to its defensibility.
I drew up a rather crappy map:
GEspr.png

Large/Strategically Important Population centers in the Green Ukraine:
1. Permskoye (OTL Komsomolsk, Capital as it's the most defensible city)
2. Nikolayevsk (Important in defending the mouth of the Amur River)
3. Okha (source of Petroleum)
8. Nakhodka (fishing settlements expanded into an Ice-free port by Ukrainian/White Russian refugees)
9. Vladivostok (Single largest city)
10. Semyonovka (Military production center)
11. Lesozavodsk (Sawmills and a railroad connection)
12-13. Vyazemsky and another unnamed town (Food production and transport hub as connected to the Trans-Siberian Railway and the Amur River)
14. Birobidzhan (Administrative center)
15. Alexandrovsk (Large population center)
16. Gondatti
17. Unnamed town/Uda (Timber and fur production)

Please disregare 4-7. The southern half of Sakhalin is actually part of Japan at the time, I forgot.
Also, I forgot the large coal-producing city of Artynom (which is named something else ATL) and the lead mining town of Tetyuhke, among a few other fishing towns.

The Economy of the Green Ukraine is based off Coal/Oil Production, Timber, metal production (including ferrous and prescious metals... this area actually contains Russia's largest gold reserves) and a military-industrial complex.
The agricultural needs of the Green Ukraine is met by Fishing, growing Grains, Soybeans, Potatoes and Vegetables. Most of the growing happens in the southern regions. The nation is self-sufficient agriculturally.
Major trading partners include China, Japan, Canada and the United States.

So, the nation could have a large population, a prosperous economy, and a potent navy.

Of course, this is presuming the nation survives...
 
Is there any feasibility that the Green Ukraine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine) separatism movement could achieve independance from the Soviet Union? What do you think?

(hard mode: Have it escape being reconquered by Russia or conquered by the Imperial Japanese, and/or expand to occupy more of Russian Siberia)

Have Germany conquer the Soviet Union up to the Yenesei River, possibly through a Reichskommisariat Turkestan. What's left of the Soviet Union (Soviet Far East) might not be able to contain an independence movement.

To keep Japan or another power from moving in:

Prior to its downfall, the Soviet Union invades Manchuria and give Mao's forces an earlier advantage. Perhaps there was no armistice following Kalkhin Gol, or perhaps a Japanese attempt to strike north at the same time as Hitler launched Barbarossa backfired, or both. If the communists then succeed in overthrowing the Japanese and unifying China, they might decide on a "punitive strike" at Japan by invading Korea.
 
So, 'Green Ukraine' is basically Outer Manchuria, right?
Would a Manchurian Separatist movement be possible at any point?
Green Ukraine around Outer Manchuria, yes.
Manchu culture declined considerably before this point of history though. The reason they called it Green Ukraine in 1920 was because Ukrainian immigrants were actually the majority there.

EDIT: What specifically can we use as a POD to strengthen the Green Ukraine movement in 1920? After the Soviets retake the Far East it becomes basically impossible...
 
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Bumping.
I'm going to be a bit more specific. When the Green Ukraine declares independence in 1920, it is supported by America, Japan and a Pan-Mongol State. The Soviet Union on the other hand has just lost its primary pacific access. This is for obvious reasons not acceptable.
Basically we have to make the Soviet push to reclaim the Far East fail somehow. Any ideas?
 

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Is there any feasibility that the Green Ukraine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine) separatism movement could achieve independance from the Soviet Union? What do you think?

(hard mode: Have it escape being reconquered by Russia or conquered by the Imperial Japanese, and/or expand to occupy more of Russian Siberia)

EDIT: If you want to use the White Russian movement instead of the Green Ukraine movement to keep parts of Far East Russia independent that would also be awesome.
Is there any better info on "Green Ukraine" beyond a wiki article containing a large amount of "citation needed"?
 
Is there any better info on "Green Ukraine" beyond a wiki article containing a large amount of "citation needed"?
The book Bloodlands mentions the fact that Stalin feared that Japan might exploit the plight of the Ukrainians to create such a state in the Far East.
 
Is there any better info on "Green Ukraine" beyond a wiki article containing a large amount of "citation needed"?

In “Flags of Non-Russian Peoples Under Soviet Rule” by Prof. Walter Trembicky, two proposed flags for the Green Ukraine exist. However it's mentioned that the movement was quickly aborted. No info is given as to why the movement was aborted.
I can't seem to find any more sources. The date 1922 is commonly given as when the movement was aborted, but other than that pretty much nothing. Seeing as that's when the Japanese pulled out of Valvidostok I'm assuming those two events are related.

It's a shame we can't find more sources. We could just make a lot of the details up via an earlier POD (like a Pan-Mongolian state being successfully created)...
 
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