WI: Successful Ostend Manifesto (USA buys Cuba)

Eurofed

Banned
And which would be the position of the cubans in this affair?

Would there a war of ten years like in OTL (First Cuban War of Independence 1868-1878 proclaimed by the Grito of Yara) or something similar against the United States?

I suppose there would be some kind of guerrilla movement against the United States occupation.

Why ? Apart from the different language, Cuba was socially quite similar to the US South in the 19th century, and as a US state, it would enjoy much greater autonomy than as a Spanish colony, whose denial sparked the First Cuban War of Independence. Some initial tensions are possible, but people often neglect the extensive potential of democracy and federal autonomy at smoothing out nationalistic antagonism. Differently from OTL Puerto Rico and Philippines, Cuba would be given statehood immediately after a sucessful Ostend.
 
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In any case there were persons in Cuba that were contrary to the slavery

For example Carlos Manuel Cespedes that in OTL was proclaimed president of the "republic in arms" of Cuba in 1869 was a partidary of the abolition of the slavery.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Manuel_de_Céspedes

Also Ignacio Agramonte y Loynaz was another character that seems that prefered independence to any form of dominance by any country

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignacio_Agramonte

But also as you indicated there would be persons like José María Galvez Alonso that probably consider best a lot the statehood that the independence.

The question would be if Carlos Manuel Cespedes and others could try to begin an opposition movement to the United States dominion of the island. (although as I see it would be a failure militarly, it would be interesting to know how many support would have the independentists in Cuba against a US dominion)
 
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Eurofed

Banned
In any case there were persons in Cuba that were contrary to the slavery

For example Carlos Manuel Cespedes that in OTL was proclaimed president of the "republic in arms" of Cuba in 1869 was a partidary of the abolition of the slavery.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Manuel_de_Céspedes

Also Ignacio Agramonte y Loynaz was another character that seems that prefered independence to any form of dominance by any country

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignacio_Agramonte

But also as you indicated there would be persons like José María Galvez Alonso that probably consider best a lot the statehood that the independence.

The question would be if Carlos Manuel Cespedes and others could try to begin an opposition movement to the United States dominion of the island. (although as I see it would be a failure militarly, it would be interesting to know how many support would have the independentists in Cuba against a US dominion)

Yea, but remember that the success of the Ostend Manifesto, if the South makes some concessions to sell it in the North, in all likelihood does little to defuse or substantially delay the ACW. Afterwards, slavery shall be erased, and Cuba would get the Reconstruction as part of the former Confederacy. The First Cuban War of Independence started in the late 60s, I'm not really so confident that US annexation could accelerate its timetable by a decade. Anyway, it is pretty much guaranteed that an independence movement would be snuffed out by the US Army, either before or after the ACW. Counterinsurgency in Cuba is much easier for the USA than it is for Spain.

Although it is correct that statehood would find its strongest supporters in the plantation elites before the ACW, and in the antislavery middle classes after it.
 
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Hmm, it would be interesting that in an alternate ACW how the operations in Cuba would develop.

As you say surely any attempt of rebelion before the ACW would be crushed efficiently (before the Ten Years Wars of 1868-1878 there were also independentist conspirations like of Las Pozas in 1852 so I think that the perspective to be annexed by de facto the South of the United States -the slaver part of the Union- could be of the little taste of an important part of the cuban population), I think but that once the ACW had begun we could see an uprising against the sugar plantation oligarchy of Cuba that surely would support the South in the ACW, with the Union Navy effectively dominating in great part the seas, and the fact that Cuba could be a base for the southern ships that try to broke the blockade, I think that an amphibious operation a la New Orleans could be very possible and if this counts with an uprising in Cuba, surely Cuba could fall quickly in the hands of the Union.

A possible and plaussible chain of events could be this:

1854 Vicalvarada in Spain, the progressist uprising of Leopoldo O'Donnell against the government of Sartorius, POD the skirmish in Vicalvaro in 28 june is a disaster for the progressists with O'Donnell wounded, with an O'Donnell with a mortal blessing (not according our standards but yes with the medical standards of the spanish medicine of XIX century) the Sartorius government believes that he could crush the rebelion easily, this overconfidence causes him to delay actions, Francisco Serrano and Domingo Dulce joins the rebellion.
O'Donnell dies but the two other generals proclaims the progressist uprising that like in OTL has great following in different points of Spain, at the difference of OTL, Sartorius has more followers caused by the doubts that after the O'Donnell death this uprising coul truly succeed: Civil War of 1854-56 (at the end a progressist victory).

With a civil war in Spain, news of conspirations in Cuba and border problems with Morocco in the zone of Ceuta and Melilla the Sartorius government considers to sold the island, decision confirmed by an uprising leaded by Carlos Manuel Cespedes and Pedro Figueredo against the cuba governor that follows the orders of Sartorius. The lema of this uprising in the zone of Bayamo and Camaguey is freedom for Cuba (or at least a great autonomy under a progressist spanish government).

To worse things for Sartorius another uprising happens in the east, this with pro-annexionists to US in command leaded by Porfirio Valiente.

Sartorius pressed by all these circumstances indicates his will to sold Cuba to the United States effectively solding this in december 1854 ("the Great Christmas gift" in words of James Buchanan) -He will not survive tho this decision and the extension of the progressist victories in Spain, in february 1855 he will be substituted by Narvaez in a desperate attempt of the moderates to reverse the successes of the progressists-.

1855-56 United States troops with support of Cuban annexionists crush the uprising of the Eastern Cuba leaded by Cespedes and Figueredo.

1859. The Kansas-Cuba Compromise: Buchanan, southern and northern politicians accords the enter of Cuba as a slave state and Kansas as free state (a decision but fighted by radical of both sides and by cuban liberals antislavery), violence erupt (although in a minor way than in OTL in Kansas).

1860. Failed expedition of John Brown to Cuba in support of antislavery faction. John Brown jailed, sentenced and executed by treason.
Abraham Lincoln elected in one of the most disputed and divided elections of the United States.
Secession of South Carolina.

1861. Secession of the Southern States (Secession of Western Virginia and Eastern Tennessee of the Southern States in support of the Union). Cuba joins the South.

1861 October Carlos Manuel Cespedes executed by southern authorities. Grito de Bayamo, pro-union, anti-slavery rebellion against southern authorities leaded by Salvador Cisneros.

1862 Blockaded by the Union Navy, the island lives in an authentic civil war between the East (pro-union) and the west (pro-confederation).

1863 United States Expedition in support of the pro-union uprising leaded by admiral Farragut and Jose Antonio Saco.
November 1863 Fall of La Habana.

1864 March. Last organized confederate resistance in Cuba ends.

1865 June. Kirby Smith surrenders at Shreveport, Van Dorn surrenders at Sant Louis. Jefferson Davis captured at Galveston when trying to flee to Europe. End of the Civil War.

1866. Because the cuban uprising and the anti-slavery feelings of the middle class Cuba gets another time the statehood (suspended during the Civil War), the first ex-confederate state in see returning its statehood.
 
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2) Spanish American war results what would the USA get instead of Cuba since they already own it? My guess would be the Spanish half of Hispaniola

Spain had'nt truly controlled any of Hispaniola since 1697, when they gave it to France, and then only controlled it in name for two years in the early 1860's.

Now, the Dominican Republic may or may not become a state, it all depends on the cirumstances.
However, aside from maybe some Caribbean islands (who'd likely end up like the OTL Marshall's), I doubt that the U.S. would expand anywhere else in the Caribbean save perhaps Peurto Rico.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Spain had'nt controlled any of Hispaniola since 1697, when they gave it to France..

Actually half of it was still nominally Spanish until 1795 when it was conquered by a young and still relatively unknown freedman french general - a certain Toussaint Louverture ;) - the border, however, was not quite today's Haitian-Dominican border.
 
Actually half of it was still nominally Spanish until 1795 when it was conquered by a young and still relatively unknown freedman french general - a certain Toussaint Louverture ;) - the border, however, was not quite today's Haitian-Dominican border.

Hm, you're right, still for the purpose of this thread it does'nt change what I said since the PoD is in the 1850's.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Spain had'nt truly controlled any of Hispaniola since 1697, when they gave it to France, and then only controlled it in name for two years in the early 1860's.

They ceded the western half, which latrer became Haiti after the slave revolution, in 1697. They kept the eastern half, which later became the Dominican republic, up to 1795. It was then ceded to France, returned to Spain in 1808, briefly went independent in 1821, occupied by Haiti in 1822, freed itself in 1844, briefly returned to Spain in 1861-63, and petitioned to join the US in 1870, but the annexation treaty failed in the Senate. Now, since during the 19th century, there was in eastern Hispaniola a pro-US faction, and the annexation of Cuba would make the USA more willing to expand in the Caribbean (and to annex an Hispanic nation), it stands to reason that ITTL the US annexation bid for DR would succeed.
 
and petitioned to join the US in 1870, but the annexation treaty failed in the Senate. Now, since during the 19th century, there was in eastern Hispaniola a pro-US faction, and the annexation of Cuba would make the USA more willing to expand in the Caribbean (and to annex an Hispanic nation), it stands to reason that ITTL the US annexation bid for DR would succeed.

That assumes though that their would be an attempt, plus owning Cuba could increase opposition in the U.S. itself.
 

Eurofed

Banned
That assumes though that their would be an attempt, plus owning Cuba could increase opposition in the U.S. itself.

if there was one IOTL, and owning Cuba makes the USA more involved in the Caribbean, it stands to reason that it is all the more likely ITTL. Such increased opposition is not that plausible, since if Cuba stays loyal to the CSA till the end, all issues about it get wrapped in the larger Reconstruction issue after the war, and Cuba is not seen as any special case. If there is a pro-Union rebellion after a point as Inaki suggested, there shall be less, not more, opposition.
 
if there was one IOTL, and owning Cuba makes the USA more involved in the Caribbean, it stands to reason that it is all the more likely ITTL. Such increased opposition is not that plausible, since if Cuba stays loyal to the CSA till the end, all issues about it get wrapped in the larger Reconstruction issue after the war, and Cuba is not seen as any special case. If there is a pro-Union rebellion after a point as Inaki suggested, there shall be less, not more, opposition.

Their's still the race issue though, the Civil War ended slavery, it did'nt end Racism in the North or South.
Cuba itself would'nt be much different from the rest of the South (indeed it would likely be less of a problem) given it's majority white, however the Dominican Republic was (vast) majority black and their would be alot of Southerners who simply see that as to far, not to mention that alot of Dominicans would likely oppose it.

What I was meaning to increased opposition was that the view that it would be wrong to annex DR because it 'was one of the first Republics of the America's' or because it would be exploited could well be higher with America owning Cuba.
 
Their's still the race issue though, the Civil War ended slavery, it did'nt end Racism in the North or South.
Cuba itself would'nt be much different from the rest of the South (indeed it would likely be less of a problem) given it's majority white, however the Dominican Republic was (vast) majority black and their would be alot of Southerners who simply see that as to far, not to mention that alot of Dominicans would likely oppose it.

What I was meaning to increased opposition was that the view that it would be wrong to annex DR because it 'was one of the first Republics of the America's' or because it would be exploited could well be higher with America owning Cuba.

What if reconstruction ITTL is successful and racism in the south takes a massive downturn? (I think someone posted a thread about that a few days ago)
 
What if reconstruction ITTL is successful and racism in the south takes a massive downturn? (I think someone posted a thread about that a few days ago)

The problem is that for reconstruction to be completely successful you need an earlier PoD that would change politics and general sentiment among Americans.
One of the reasons it failed was because you essentially needed to strip the entire South of nearly all political rights for a decade and then forcefully change the entire social make-up.

But even without the racism their are still other reasons it could be opposed.
 
The problem is that for reconstruction to be completely successful you need an earlier PoD that would change politics and general sentiment among Americans.
One of the reasons it failed was because you essentially needed to strip the entire South of nearly all political rights for a decade and then forcefully change the entire social make-up.

But even without the racism their are still other reasons it could be opposed.

Good points, but what would these other reasons be?
 

Eurofed

Banned
Cuba itself would'nt be much different from the rest of the South (indeed it would likely be less of a problem) given it's majority white,

Actually Cuba was not so white in the 1850s-1860s as today, but yeah, not really different from the Deep South.

however the Dominican Republic was (vast) majority black and their would be alot of Southerners who simply see that as to far, not to mention that alot of Dominicans would likely oppose it.

But here we are assumed that the annexation takes place during the Reconstruction, when the influence of the South is at its nadir. And there was a considerable pro-US opinion in DR during the 19th century. The annexation treaty failed in the US Senate, not because DR opposed it.

What I was meaning to increased opposition was that the view that it would be wrong to annex DR because it 'was one of the first Republics of the America's' or because it would be exploited could well be higher with America owning Cuba.

The annexation is happening because of peaceful agreement, not conquest, so this concern is ASB for 19th century American public opinion.
 
Good points, but what would these other reasons be?

As I said above, their would be those in America who would oppose it on the principal that it would be wrong to annex the only majority black Republic or because they believed that it would end up being exploited.

Their's also the fact that most Dominicans would likely oppose it as well.
(Their was a referendum IOTL, but given the president at the time it was very likely rigged.)

Then their is of course by that point economics.


All in all I'm not saying it's impossible, but rather that if Cuba got America then the U.S. would'nt automatically try to annex everything else.
 
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