WI: Successful Ostend Manifesto (USA buys Cuba)

Like the title says what if the Ostend Manifesto had succeded and the urge for expansion by northerners led them to overlook the slavery issue

just for the sake of this lets say that Spain agrees to sell Cuba for $130 million adn it becomes a slave state their are a few things i am intersted in mostly

1) What would happen to the Civil war? Most likely the union navy would just blockade them imo, but what do you guys think?

2) Spanish American war results what would the USA get instead of Cuba since they already own it? My guess would be the Spanish half of Hispaniola

3) What Cuba would look like today, would it be independent? would it be a state? would they speak English?

4) How would Americans feel today and back then about all of the Spanish speaking, Part native, Catholic Cubans in their country?
 
I feel in the Long run, it would become independent, or atleast have more independence from America than Hawaii.

Think about an African American+Carribean+White American culture on one Island. It's a mecca of tension and cultural mixing.
 
I feel in the Long run, it would become independent, or atleast have more independence from America than Hawaii.

Think about an African American+Carribean+White American culture on one Island. It's a mecca of tension and cultural mixing.

So that would end up like Yugoslavia or they all mix races like the spanish settlers did OTL with the Aztec and other native tribes or it becomes the haven of American multi culturalism

i would prefer the mixing races option just to see the hilarety that ensues
 
Annexation is unlikely, Pierce probably does not want to make another issue over the expansion of Slavery into another State. If it goes in, expect a ton of opposition over slavery, might actually make the Civil War happen earlier.
 
Annexation is unlikely, Pierce probably does not want to make another issue over the expansion of Slavery into another State. If it goes in, expect a ton of opposition over slavery, might actually make the Civil War happen earlier.

well i said in the first post that lets just assume that they let it in as a slave state and that they buy it from Spain for $130 million and that the fevour of manifest destiny overules slavery right now... so afterthat little bit of "yay we have more land" (how long would that last exactly?) then people get pissed that the USA has another slave state
 
well i said in the first post that lets just assume that they let it in as a slave state and that they buy it from Spain for $130 million and that the fevour of manifest destiny overules slavery right now... so afterthat little bit of "yay we have more land" (how long would that last exactly?) then people get pissed that the USA has another slave state
This is during the same time as people were shooting each other in Kansas and Nebraska over Slavery. Mnifest Destiny is not as popular as it used to be.
 
Might not the Union decide to grant Cuba its independence during the Civil War as a way of handling whatever aid Cuba might be inclined to give the Confederacy and dealing with the problems of a slave-holding, Spanish-speaking, Catholic state?

That or give it back to Spain as part of some kind of diplomatic maneuver to keep out the UK and France (not sure if Spain could pull any weight on this front, though)

Like the title says what if the Ostend Manifesto had succeded and the urge for expansion by northerners led them to overlook the slavery issue

just for the sake of this lets say that Spain agrees to sell Cuba for $130 million adn it becomes a slave state their are a few things i am intersted in mostly

1) What would happen to the Civil war? Most likely the union navy would just blockade them imo, but what do you guys think?

2) Spanish American war results what would the USA get instead of Cuba since they already own it? My guess would be the Spanish half of Hispaniola

3) What Cuba would look like today, would it be independent? would it be a state? would they speak English?

4) How would Americans feel today and back then about all of the Spanish speaking, Part native, Catholic Cubans in their country?
 
Because the Union doesn't want it?

After the civil war?

I would think that the union would want it, It would be quite helpful to have a rather unhurt state from the civil war, since i take it the Union navy would just blockade it and not take the risk of an actual amphibious invasion
 

Eurofed

Banned
1) What would happen to the Civil war? Most likely the union navy would just blockade them imo, but what do you guys think?

ACW gains an extra front. The Union Navy blockades the island and an Union expeditionary corps conquers it in 1862-63.

2) Spanish American war results what would the USA get instead of Cuba since they already own it? My guess would be the Spanish half of Hispaniola.

The SAW is most likely butterflied away since the US public is more difficult to raise in a jingoistic frenzy about the Philippines than against Cuba, although the whole affair may well be started about Puerto Rico all the way again. OTOH, Spain may well be persuaded to sell Puerto Rico. As it concerns the Dominican Republic, if the USA already owns Cuba, the peaceful annexation of the DR almost surely goes through in 1870. Without the Philippines, the whole equation of American-Japanese relations in the 20th century shall be changed with interesting results: they shall not be any friends nonetheless, but neither they shall be so ineroxably driven to mutual hostility. The USA may well look the other way and Japan be less paranoid about US intervention if Japan invades South East Asia.

3) What Cuba would look like today, would it be independent?

Never. ASB. It goes against the whole point of the ACW.

would it be a state?

Absolutely yes, and been such for a century and half.

would they speak English?

The majority would speak English with a Romance-speaking minority, like Louisiana, California, and the Southwest.

4) How would Americans feel today and back then about all of the Spanish speaking, Part native, Catholic Cubans in their country?

Same way they think today of assimilated Hispanic-Americans and they thought back then of Catholic European immigrants. Assimilation would have some rough spots, but it would definitely go through.
 
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Eurofed

Banned
Might not the Union decide to grant Cuba its independence during the Civil War as a way of handling whatever aid Cuba might be inclined to give the Confederacy and dealing with the problems of a slave-holding, Spanish-speaking, Catholic state?

That or give it back to Spain as part of some kind of diplomatic maneuver to keep out the UK and France (not sure if Spain could pull any weight on this front, though)

The former is radically implausible. The Union would fight to keep American Cuba just like it did with Louisiana, the Southwest territories, Virginia, and all the other places with Catholic, Romance-speaking, rebel sympathizers. To do otherwise went against the whole point of the the ACW. If they do that, they can just start immediate peace negotiatons with the CSA. And to return Cuba to an European colonial power is even more outrageously implausible in the face of American nationalism, the Monroe Doctrine, and the whole point of the ARW. Neither shall ever happen unless the Union is defeated in the field.

Now, it is quite possible that a Franco-Spanish coalition intervenes in the ACW as a result of the PoD, but the Confederacy would be as unwilling to part with Cuba as the Union.
 
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I agree with Eurofed's replies. If the Ostend Manifesto is accepted, it is likely because of some kind of political compromise where the South gives up something to pacify the North. Perhaps they accept Kansas will be a free state and agree that (some) other Territories will never enter the Union as slave states.

Cuban elites would likely speak English, but the majority of the population would still be native Spanish speakers for a while. Likely, mass public education results in widespread English fluency, but Spanish would remain the language used inside the home. As Americans move there from other states, and immigrants arise, English would become the dominant language. By the 1950s, bilingualism would be seen as an element of the state culture, but language itself would not likely be an issue of division within the state.

As for Catholicism, the US was already becoming heavily Catholicized. It might make Cuba seem different early on, but by the 1920s lots of states would have a large Catholic population. By today, it wouldn't even be an issue.

One interesting tidbit is that after the Civil War, Havana probably becomes the predominant financial and trade center in the south, eclipsing New Orleans. It probably becomes the entrepot for Latin America, meaning Miami will never develop as it did in our timeline.

If the Dominican Republic is annexed in 1870, it means the US has a strong position in the Caribbean. It is possible that the Caribbean becomes the next focus of manifest destiny, and Americans see the Sea as an American lake. I doubt there will be a war with Spain, but it is possible the US will later buy the remaining Spanish possessions. If so, the US may also try to buy some of the remaining European possessions in the Caribbean. Although likely both UK and France will refuse, others may agree. Panama might be annexed outright once the canal is built. Assuming there is a great European war in the 20th Century, the US might insist on payment for entering the war by demanding certain Caribbean colonies be turned over to them. How much depends on how desperate the British and French become, and how hard the US negotiates. British and French will likely want to keep something as a naval base in the area, but Belize and French Guiana can serve that. I can see the US grabbing a lot of the islands. I don't see Haiti ever joining the US, but it's likely the US remains very heavily involved in its internal affairs with several periods of Marine occupation and rule.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I agree with Eurofed's replies. If the Ostend Manifesto is accepted, it is likely because of some kind of political compromise where the South gives up something to pacify the North. Perhaps they accept Kansas will be a free state and agree that (some) other Territories will never enter the Union as slave states.

Cuban elites would likely speak English, but the majority of the population would still be native Spanish speakers for a while. Likely, mass public education results in widespread English fluency, but Spanish would remain the language used inside the home. As Americans move there from other states, and immigrants arise, English would become the dominant language. By the 1950s, bilingualism would be seen as an element of the state culture, but language itself would not likely be an issue of division within the state.

As for Catholicism, the US was already becoming heavily Catholicized. It might make Cuba seem different early on, but by the 1920s lots of states would have a large Catholic population. By today, it wouldn't even be an issue.

One interesting tidbit is that after the Civil War, Havana probably becomes the predominant financial and trade center in the south, eclipsing New Orleans. It probably becomes the entrepot for Latin America, meaning Miami will never develop as it did in our timeline.

If the Dominican Republic is annexed in 1870, it means the US has a strong position in the Caribbean. It is possible that the Caribbean becomes the next focus of manifest destiny, and Americans see the Sea as an American lake. I doubt there will be a war with Spain, but it is possible the US will later buy the remaining Spanish possessions. If so, the US may also try to buy some of the remaining European possessions in the Caribbean. Although likely both UK and France will refuse, others may agree. Panama might be annexed outright once the canal is built. Assuming there is a great European war in the 20th Century, the US might insist on payment for entering the war by demanding certain Caribbean colonies be turned over to them. How much depends on how desperate the British and French become, and how hard the US negotiates. British and French will likely want to keep something as a naval base in the area, but Belize and French Guiana can serve that. I can see the US grabbing a lot of the islands. I don't see Haiti ever joining the US, but it's likely the US remains very heavily involved in its internal affairs with several periods of Marine occupation and rule.

Full agreement here. I would just add that it is also quite possible that some Central American states (or better, their ruling elites) may choose to join the United States voluntarily, on the example of the Dominican Republic, once they see Cuba and the DR become success stories as US states. Likely candidates include Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

It is also quite likely, that once the USA becomes strongly focused in the Caribbean, and less so in the Pacific, and has an assimilated Hispanic minority, if the *Mexican Revolution with anything like *Pancho Villa still occurs, and the USA is not involved in a great European war at the time, they shall intervene, annex northern Mexico, and turn the rest into a satellite state.

I agree that Haiti shall never be offered US statehood, before the ACW they are a dangerous example to US slaves, after it they have too many Blacks and later become too much of a socio-economic basket case. OTOH, the USA shall be highly interested in buying Bahamas, Jamaica, and the Lesser Antilles. They may offer to buy them in exchange for forgiving some of the Anglo-French debts, if a *WWI occurs (whether America joins it or not).
 
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archaeogeek

Banned
Full agreement here. I would just add that it is also quite possible that some Central American states (or better, their ruling elites) may choose to join the United States voluntarily, on the example of the Dominican Republic, once they see Cuba and the DR become success stories as US states. Likely candidates include Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

It is also quite likely, that once the USA becomes strongly focused in the Caribbean, and less so in the Pacific, and has an assimilated Hispanic minority, if the *Mexican Revolution with anything like *Pancho Villa still occurs, and the USA is not involved in a great European war at the time, they shall intervene, annex northern Mexico, and turn the rest into a satellite state.

I agree that Haiti shall never be offered US statehood, they are too much of a socio-economic basket case. OTOH, the USA shall be highly interested in buying Bahamas, Jamaica, and the Lesser Antilles. They may offer to buy them in exchange for forgiving some of the Anglo-French debts, if a *WWI occurs (whether America joins it or not).

The part about Haiti shows clearly again that you're using far too much hindsight - the main problem with Haiti at the time of Ostend was not economics, they were a poor country but compared to Mexico not terribly so, it was one of politics. And of course one of racism - they'd be taking a state with about half a million to a million creole blacks who would likely politically have none of this bullshit horsetrading with slave states. The french reparations had hurt it but not as much as the various dictatorships later would.
 
And which would be the position of the cubans in this affair?

Would there a war of ten years like in OTL (First Cuban War of Independence 1868-1878 proclaimed by the Grito of Yara) or something similar against the United States?

I suppose there would be some kind of guerrilla movement against the United States occupation.
 

Eurofed

Banned
The part about Haiti shows clearly again that you're using far too much hindsight - the main problem with Haiti at the time of Ostend was not economics, they were a poor country but compared to Mexico not terribly so, it was one of politics. And of course one of racism - they'd be taking a state with about half a million to a million creole blacks who would likely politically have none of this bullshit horsetrading with slave states. The french reparations had hurt it but not as much as the various dictatorships later would.

Well, your have a point in that Haiti always was unacceptable as a US state for different reasons down the road: before the ACW, it was racism and moreso, the fact that a state born from a slave revolution gave really bad vibes to the slaveholding Southerners. After the ACW and before desgregration, it was racism. After desegregation, it has been its extreme poverty.
 
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