WI: Successful Great Prussian Uprising

[Augenis]

The Great Prussian Uprising was the largest Prussian uprising against the rule of the Teutonic Order that stretched out from 1260 to 1274, led by Herkus Monte and many other Prussian tribe leaders. Because of large-scale reinforcements from Europe and Lithuanian inability to support the uprising, it was crushed, though after some successes by the Prussians.

There is a way to make the Prussians win - make sure that the very Teuton-supportive Pope Urban IV is not elected, thus lessening Western support for the Knights, and delaying the civil struggles in Lithuania for at least a few years, such as Treniota and Skalmantas can support the Uprising and rally more Prussian tribes to it.

So then, the Knights are defeated and a confederation of Prussian tribes under the leadership of Herkus Monte is established. What would be the effect of this on the region?

Would Lithuania come in to "protect" the Prussians? In a very conquery sort of way...

What would be the effect on the Livonian Order? Would it be able to survive without the Teutons in Prussia?

What butterflies could arise from such a development?

 

[Remitonov]

One way to truly survive the Teutonic Knights is to embrace Christianity, either in Catholic form or Orthodoxy. Although not foolproof, as the Polish-Lithuanians had found, a Catholic Baltic Prussia it means the Vatican has to choose between the knights and the Prussians, and removes a core justification for the Knights' crusade in the Baltics (i.e. converting Prussia). It also means that the Poles are more likely to help if their interests clash with the knights more than Prussia. Othodoxy is less likely to keep the Teutons off the Prussians' back, but more able to get help from the Slavic principalities. Islam is way out there, and not likely to do any good past the Mongol invasions. It can also be possible to remain pagan, but it's a stretch, and it's one where the odds will continue to stack as Christianity encroaches on all sides.

In any case, so long as the tribes are held together via charismatic leadership, they will fracture again in the near future. Some legitimacy as a kingdom had to be grounded, and Christianity provides it and is readily accessible.

 

[Salvador79]

@Remitonov,
but let`s not forget that Lithuania did exceedingly well, although its leaders Christianised only in the second half of the 14th century.

The Livonian Order`s survival depends on whether Lithuania develops a Northwards / Baltic / maritime strategy in this scenario or not. In the late 13th century, its towns are still small, and its hold over the region is tenuous.

Everything could change with a Lithuania which manages to include other Balts (Prussians, Curonians) and even Uralic people the way they managed to hold Lithuanians-proper and Zemaitians together.

If Lithuania remains focused where it was IOTL, it would still be stronger than IOTL because it doesn`t have to watch its back all the time.
In that case, the Prussians either stay united and pursue their own course of expansion (Mazowia? Courland? Pomerellia?) or they disintegrate, which would make subsequent German attempts to gain footholds as possible as Danish meddlings or a slow integration into Poland.