WI: Successful Easter Rising?

What would have been the fate of a new independent Irish Republic, if the 1916 Easter Rising had succeeded? How might this have impacted the First World War? Would Ireland join the Central Powers?
 
ASB. As an admirer of the IRA it makes me sad to say this. However, the rising was utterly infeasible, even had the German arms made it through.
 
ASB. As an admirer of the IRA it makes me sad to say this. However, the rising was utterly infeasible, even had the German arms made it through.

I mean, it might be unlikely, but it isn't beyond the realm of possibility. An Irish insurgency could bog down British forces, who might be spread too thin as Germany was the greater threat to London. It might have to be a long, protracted, hard-fought war, but it isn't impossible had German arms reached Ireland.
 
It's not just the arms, what you'd need is the volunteers not getting the stand down order. If that was avoided then it's likely that you have a more widespread Rising outside of the OTL areas which may slow the response.

End of the day the Rising still gets smashed to bits but the knock ons could be greater.
 

Pangur

Donor
It's not just the arms, what you'd need is the volunteers not getting the stand down order. If that was avoided then it's likely that you have a more widespread Rising outside of the OTL areas which may slow the response.

End of the day the Rising still gets smashed to bits but the knock ons could be greater.
You would been no stand down and a massive and succesful German offensive that results in Paris being captured at a mininum to take the pressure off. May be have it made clear to the Brisish that a independent Ireland would not support Germany in any form or fashion would help as well however that almost certainly would not be enough.
 
I'm still conflicted about what exactly a 'successful Easter Uprising' would mean. The way I see it to was more of a revolt than a revolution. More about them being fed up with the way England conducted wartime rule on their soil then about the time being right and the people behind them and such. Insofar the uprising WAS successful in showing the world that the Irish Problem did not go away just because there was a war going on in France. And in one way, it DID succeed in starting the Irish civil war in 1919.
 

Pangur

Donor
I'm still conflicted about what exactly a 'successful Easter Uprising' would mean. The way I see it to was more of a revolt than a revolution. More about them being fed up with the way England conducted wartime rule on their soil then about the time being right and the people behind them and such. Insofar the uprising WAS successful in showing the world that the Irish Problem did not go away just because there was a war going on in France. And in one way, it DID succeed in starting the Irish civil war in 1919.
The conduct of the war had little ifanythng to do with the rebellion rather it was logn term discontent with Brish rule
 
The basic issue was that the IRA had no popular support in 1916. The British reaction (shooting Padrig Pierce et al) was what caused the far stronger popular support in 1921. In 1916, the IRA was a fringe element within Irish society. For this reason there was no chance the rising would succeed. It would be somewhat like the Black Panthers overthrowing the government in Mississippi in 1968. Not plausible.
 
I find a successful Easter Rising to be a very interesting scenario but it's hard to see it happening. I think you would need a stronger German navy that could bring more support or even bring troops to the Irish similar to the Operation Unicorn TL. Maybe if the rebels turn to guerrilla warfare they might be able to wear down the British over time.

It's not just the arms, what you'd need is the volunteers not getting the stand down order. If that was avoided then it's likely that you have a more widespread Rising outside of the OTL areas which may slow the response.

End of the day the Rising still gets smashed to bits but the knock ons could be greater.
Eoin MacNeill issued the countermanding order because the German arms were captured.

May be have it made clear to the Brisish that a independent Ireland would not support Germany in any form or fashion would help as well however that almost certainly would not be enough.
There was no chance of that happening, the rising was plotted with the Germans by Casement and Plunkett, no German arms means no chance whatsoever of a successful rising, the proclamation referred to them as Ireland's "gallant allies in Europe", and Pearse and Plunkett considered crowning Prince Joachim of Prussia in order to secure Irish independence through an alliance with Germany and help revive the Irish language. As Michael Collins would later say in an interview with American journalist Hayden Talbot the rising and subsequent revival of Irish nationalism was inseparable from the thought and hope of a German victory.

The basic issue was that the IRA had no popular support in 1916. The British reaction (shooting Padrig Pierce et al) was what caused the far stronger popular support in 1921. In 1916, the IRA was a fringe element within Irish society. For this reason there was no chance the rising would succeed. It would be somewhat like the Black Panthers overthrowing the government in Mississippi in 1968. Not plausible.
It's not impossible that Irish opinions could shift in response to British actions during a more successful rising, the fact that it only took a few executions to dramatically shift public opinion suggests public support for the British wasn't really all that strong though the effect of the 1918 conscription crisis shouldn't be discounted either.
 
What would have been the fate of a new independent Irish Republic, if the 1916 Easter Rising had succeeded? How might this have impacted the First World War? Would Ireland join the Central Powers?
it was successful insofar as it could have been. Military victory was impossible, British stupidity in over reacting gave the IRA the Political victory, however.
 
And in one way, it DID succeed in starting the Irish civil war in 1919.
That would be the Irish War of Independence, the Irish Civil War followed the ending of the War of Independence.
Eoin MacNeill issued the countermanding order because the German arms were captured.
True however he was already against it and had planned to try and stop it, while the arms were what convinced him to support it, it's fair to say he was never a backer of the idea.
it was successful insofar as it could have been. Military victory was impossible, British stupidity in over reacting gave the IRA the Political victory, however.
Not the IRA at this stage.
 
You admire an organisation that indiscriminately maimed and murdered innocent people? That disgusts me.
Given there seems to be a bit of a cross over of who people are calling the IRA and then of course all the different IRA's that have come and gone, I'd have to ask is he talking about the Irish Volunteers that took part in the Rising, the IRA of the War of Independence or the multitude of the more modern variants spawned by the Troubles?
 
Given there seems to be a bit of a cross over of who people are calling the IRA and then of course all the different IRA's that have come and gone, I'd have to ask is he talking about the Irish Volunteers that took part in the Rising, the IRA of the War of Independence or the multitude of the more modern variants spawned by the Troubles?

I'm aware of that, however they did not specify at all who they were referring to, which leads to the assumption that it was the only one most people are even aware of.
 

Deleted member 94680

What would have been the fate of a new independent Irish Republic, if the 1916 Easter Rising had succeeded? How might this have impacted the First World War? Would Ireland join the Central Powers?

That is the worst thing a successful Ireland could do. A rising that results in a CP Ireland results in a bloodbath as the British come back in far greater numbers. The gloves would be off and the rules wouldn’t apply.

An Irish insurgency could bog down British forces, who might be spread too thin as Germany was the greater threat to London.

Germany on the continent, behind the Royal Navy, is a greater threat than CP supplied Irish insurgents within Great Britain? Don’t see it myself and I doubt London would view it the same way either.

End of the day the Rising still gets smashed to bits but the knock ons could be greater.

Smashed to bits is putting it lightly. Devastated and occupied under something akin to German rule of Belgium is more likely. A police state, with pass laws, nighttime raids, checkpoints and a two-tier (probably religion based) society are more likely outcomes.

You would been no stand down and a massive and succesful German offensive that results in Paris being captured at a mininum to take the pressure off.

Nothing that happens on the continent would take the pressure off an Irish insurgency in Ireland and especially Ulster.

May be have it made clear to the Brisish that a independent Ireland would not support Germany in any form or fashion would help as well however that almost certainly would not be enough.

Certainly it wouldn’t. You can’t use German arms and aid to win your independence and then claim you won’t support Germany and expect to be taken seriously by London.
 
Smashed to bits is putting it lightly. Devastated and occupied under something akin to German rule of Belgium is more likely. A police state, with pass laws, nighttime raids, checkpoints and a two-tier (probably religion based) society are more likely outcomes.
So the War of Independence level comes a few years early.
 
I would claim that the the Eastern Rising by and large succeeded in its goal. The uprising was a suicide operation, and the participants knew it. And yet their planners also believed that such a sacrifice would ultimately bring about an independent Ireland.

And the British authorities played along the plans of the rebels, creating a compelling myth of martyrdom for the independence movement.
 
I'm aware of that, however they did not specify at all who they were referring to, which leads to the assumption that it was the only one most people are even aware of.


I think its rather obvious I was talking about the IRA of the rising and the Irish Civil War, since I noted that IRA in 1916 lacked popular support. I would acknowledge that the Provisional IRA ("Provos") and Sinn Fein are rather more morally problematic. On the other hand there is a good bit of moral blame to go around.
 
That would be the Irish War of Independence, the Irish Civil War followed the ending of the War of Independence.

True however he was already against it and had planned to try and stop it, while the arms were what convinced him to support it, it's fair to say he was never a backer of the idea.

Not the IRA at this stage.
I was looking at the consequences a few years later
 

Deleted member 94680

So the War of Independence level comes a few years early.

Basically, but probably worse and more violent. WoI levels of repression, but with regulars instead of Black and Tans.
 
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