Hello, first of all, this is my first post on this board though I have been a lurker on-and-off for a long time.
It's a pleasure joining y'all.
Though some people might not be aware, Argentina had until the late 1940s a GDP per capita on par with Australia and Canada and a similar economic trajectory, becoming an "Honorary Dominion" of sorts of the British Empire, exporting beef and wheat while receiving European immigrants (mostly from Spain and Italy, but including several Northern Europeans as well), and receiving large amounts of foreign investment (mostly from Britain). By the early 1900s the country had an infant mortality rate on par with Switzerland and the United States, and levels of car ownership per capita on par with Britain or France. It was, by all measures, a First World, Western country.
Even as late as 1968 Argentina had a GDP per capita higher than Italy and Japan, and higher than Spain until 1981.
My question is, what would the world look like if Argentina had maintained its export-led growth trajectory and pro-British foreign policy during and after WW2? Would there be too many butterflies, or would these be contained mostly to South America?
What PODs can be used to achieve this?
Here are some of the PODs I imagine, the further back the more butterflies, but the higher chance they would succeed in keeping Argentina in the top tier of world living standards.
Option A: No 1930 Coup
The 1930 coup broke 70 years of continued Constitutional succession in Argentina, and led to a cycle of political instability, divisive politics, weakened institutions, and eventually the economic nationalism, autarky and high inflation of the Perón post-war years, as well as the disastrous coups that followed him, and prevented Argentina from achieving sustainable growth. What is worse, the 1930 coup was legitimized by a Supreme Court ruling (!) which essentially gave carte blanche to all the other coups that followed, destroying what until then had been very solid Republican institutions.
A good POD to prevent the coup is:
POD #1 - 1928: Yrigoyen dies either during or before his second Presidency
Yrigoyen's party, the Radical Civic Union, had demanded universal suffrage and came out strong of the reforms introduced by Conservative President Roque Saenz Peña in 1912, which turned Argentina into one of the first countries in the world with universal (male) suffrage. His first Presidency (1916-1922) was uneventful, aside from remaining neutral in WW1 and creating the national oil company YPF, he did not touch many elements dear to the Conservative elite. During his second Presidency however (1928-1930), he promoted many of his personal friends to positions of power, which angered the military, and the more Conservative wing of his own party, which became divided between Anti-Personalistas (like Alvear, Leopoldo Melo, etc, stressing loyalty to institutions rather than to politicians) and Personalistas (Stressing loyalty to Yrigoyen as leader of the party)
Remove Yrigoyen from the equation, and it is likely the Radical Civic Union would have remained united, and moreover, led by someone from the Conservative wing of the party such as Leopoldo Melo.
No Second Yrigoyen Presidency, no coup, Leopoldo Melo becomes President in 1928, Argentina follows a normal democratic path joining the Allies in WW2, with possible Presidencies by Lisandro de la Torre in 1934 (Progressive Democratic Party), Jose P. Tamborini in 1940 (Radical Civic Union), and Amadeo Sabattini (Radical Civic Union) 1946 in the Post-war.
With no Peronism, Argentina never falls into the trap of economic autarky, protectionism, nationalizations, and high inflation that stagnated the economy in the Post-war. After all, even the Socialist Party in 1930s Argentina advocated free trade (!).
It is easy to imagine the Radical Civic Union and the Socialist Party enacting welfare reforms that Argentina could afford in the post-war, and alternating themselves in power along with the Progressive Democrat Party (which was actually Conservative, despite the name!) which would eventually gain elections either alone or as part of a coalition.
In this POD, with the spectre of Great Depression political instability exorcised, it is easy to imagine the nation following a path similar to Canada or Australia, joining the Allies in WW2, becoming a staunch US ally in the Post-War, even perhaps sending troops to the Korean War and becoming a G7 member in the 1970s.
Option B: Democratic Normalization
Another alternative POD presents itself in 1940.
After the 1930 coup, the proto-fascist Uriburu was forced to step down in 1931, and new elections were organized, but this time fraud was carried out. The UCR under Alvear was prevented from running, and the Socialists under Palacios were victims of fraud carried out by a Conservative-UCR-Antipersonalist coalition under Agustin P. Justo.
In 1938, again this system dubbed "Patriotic Fraud" was implemented, even in the face of open UCR revolts in 1933, a compromise UCR candidate was chosen to "win" the fraudulent elections by the ruling coalition - Roberto Marcelino Ortiz.
Even though he was elected through fraud, Ortiz was a believer in the democratic system, and soon after he took office he announced steps to bring the "democratic normalization" of Argentina. When WW2 broke out a year into Ortiz's Presidency, it was leaked to the news media that Ortiz was negotiating with Roosevelt the entry of Argentina and the United States together as a "non-belligerents" on the Allied side. However, Roosevelt was in the middle of elections, and not interested in making himself look like a warmonger, so Ortiz and his proposal were snubbed. This damaged his reputation on the Argentine media.
Aside from these two events, Ortiz's presidency was very short lived, as he suffered from severe diabetes, and this caused a blindness that forced him to step down from active duty in 1940. His Vice-President, old school oligarch Conservative Ramón Castillo, did not share either his passion for democracy, nor his sympathy towards the Allies, and the system of "patriotic fraud" would continue until the 1943 coup that would bring Peron to power as Minister of Labour.
POD #2 - 1940: President Ortiz does not resign from diabetes
It is easy to imagine that if President Ortiz had not been forced to resign, his policies would have eventually led to democratic normalization and Argentina joining the Allies. There were powerful lobbies pushing for Argentina's entry into the Allied side, including the Anti-fascist association "Acción Argentina" (led by UCR former President Alvear), all the mainstream political parties (UCR, Socialist Party, Progressive Democrat Party, even many Conservatives) and much of the Argentine population.
Removing the Patriotic Fraud from the equation would remove the major cause behind the support for the 1943 coup, and would see Argentina following a similar path as outlined above.
Other more dubious PODs include:
1943 Coup Never Happens
Conservative Robustiano Patrón Costas is elected through fraud, joins the Allied war effort as many historians claim it was his intention.
1955-1970 Perón Dies in Exile
Would have eased tensions in the country and allowed "Peronism without Perón" to become a thing, allowing Cold War democratic normalization as Presidents Frondizi or Illia wanted to achieve.
Argentine Currency Board is Abandoned before 1997
This would prevent the 2001 economic crisis and prevent the loss of faith in the free market reforms carried out in the 1990s, leading to stronger economic growth and with a little bit of luck, an Argentina on par with South Korea (GDP per capita in both countries was the same in 1998)
What do you guys think?
All opinions are welcome.