WI: Successful Armada of 1779

Quick Backgroun:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armada_of_1779

Naval operations in the Age of Sail often read like Comedies of Error. This particular occasion is no different. A few tweaks here and there, and a great naval battle where the Franco-Spanish force outnumbered the British by nearly 2-1 could take place. Lets assume it does, and lets assume the British lose resoundingly.

What influence on the war, in general, would such a naval victory have?

Follow-up, likely much more important: What influence on the war, in general, would the likely follow-up invasion of Great Britain have?
 
I can't see France holding any part of England itself other than the Channel Isles, or wanting to. Plus, nether France nor especially Spain would be able to keep up the financial burden for long.

Some form of reparations, reversal of the losses of 1763, some attempt to hamper naval construction.

And of course, the ARW. Britain would quickly have to make a deal with the Americans so as to be able to withdraw their forces- nobody would stand for keeping up the fight against the Colonies while the French and Spanish were threatening London.

Canada- does Quebec go with the Americans, return to France, or become independent?

The first will not be popular with the Canadiens, which is a bit awkward when you have a Revolution fighting for independence, but one part of your new country is territory occupied by a foreign army.

The second would be extremely unpopular with the Americans, who would not be happy to se a victorious France returning to threaten them with encirclement again.

Independence- many issues to be considered
 
Ireland would rise, but would be defeated unless they got strong support from their Catholic brethren. An independent Ireland might be a deal breaker for the British, leading to a much more prolonged land war in England.

Even if Ireland got independence, I imagine it would be a source of great bitterness in Britain, who would be looking for a chance to take it back and inflict (probably very bloody) revenge.

Also look for a surge of anti-Catholic reaction that would make the Gordon Riots look like kiddies' day. Mobs, burnings, expulsions of English Catholics; full-out war against Scottish Highlanders.
 
And of course, the ARW. Britain would quickly have to make a deal with the Americans so as to be able to withdraw their forces- nobody would stand for keeping up the fight against the Colonies while the French and Spanish were threatening London.
Who´d arrive sooner - French in London, or the forces recalled from Americas?
 
Top