WI: Subutai attacks Vienna?

After routing the Hungarian troops at Mohi the great Mongol general Subutai prepared to march on Vienna. However, Khan Ogedai died and Batu was forced to go back to Mongolia to elect a new Khan ending the invasion before it began. However lets say Ogedai doesn't die and Subutai invades the HRE, laying siege to Vienna. What would happen? Would the Mongols be able to capture the city? What if they did? If they failed?
 
I think the idea that Batu was forced to call a halt by the death of Ogedai is disputed at this point. If nothing else, he felt no urgency to return to Karakorum to help decide who the new Khan would be, he just returned to his home base in the Golden Horde. In any case, there were still some significant holdouts within Hungary by the time Batu turned back, which suggests that he wasn't interested in staying long enough to finish what he started, let alone get into a scrap with another polity as well. Vienna probably wasn't on his agenda at all at the time.
 
I think the idea that Batu was forced to call a halt by the death of Ogedai is disputed at this point. If nothing else, he felt no urgency to return to Karakorum to help decide who the new Khan would be, he just returned to his home base in the Golden Horde.
Batu was not in charge of all the invasion Mongol force. He had 25% of the Grand Army under his command (at best). Ögedei Khan was very careful and thus divided the military leadership.
So even if Batu had decided to go on campaigning into Europe he would have done it with his 25% of the Grand army only, which was not enough, of course.

Batu.. felt no urgency to return to Karakorum to help decide who the new Khan would be, he just returned to his home base in the Golden Horde.
Having no general military leadership of the Grand Imperial Army, Batu was official head of the Jouchi Ulus (the so called Golden Horde), that was undisputed, decided by Chengizz Khan and confirmed by Ogedei Khan. This huge territory was freshly conquered, stripped off most 'ethnic' Mongol troops, who went closer to Mongolia proper for election of the new Great Universal Khaan.
So Batu's task was insanely difficult - to hold what had just been conquered with the bare minimum of 'Mongol' troops he was left with.
Batu was not able to leave for kuriltai in Karacorum, but the House of Jouchi was well represented in kuriltai; and the best what Batu could do to serve his party was consolidating Ulus of the House of Jouchi (the Golden Horde), gathering finances, training the local 'non-Mongol' nomads to make them an army to be reckoned with.

So before the election any Mongol movement into Europe was out of the question.
And Europe was even safer after the election, as the newly elected Great Universal Khaan Güyük was the sworn enemy of Batu, and their violent clash seemed inevitable.
 
@Russian So if Ogedei lives a little longer, what does Batu do?
Batu was a favourite nephew of Ogedei Khaan for the reason - he did what he was told to do; a disciplined fella, a true Mongol imperialist.
So, while Ogedei Khaan is alive, the conquest of Europe is going on as it had been ordered by Chengiz Khan - the Grand Army is doing it's best with Subudai being the brain, and Batu having the most authority as the favourite grandson of Chengizz Khan and favourite nephew of Ogedei Khaan.
The conquest might stop for a while if the two most influenced characters (Subudai and Batu) ask for reinforcements. That's not a problem, 50 000 true 'ethnic' Mongol troops sent by Ogedai would have solved all the troubles.
 
Batu was a favourite nephew of Ogedei Khaan for the reason - he did what he was told to do; a disciplined fella, a true Mongol imperialist.
So, while Ogedei Khaan is alive, the conquest of Europe is going on as it had been ordered by Chengiz Khan - the Grand Army is doing it's best with Subudai being the brain, and Batu having the most authority as the favourite grandson of Chengizz Khan and favourite nephew of Ogedei Khaan.
The conquest might stop for a while if the two most influenced characters (Subudai and Batu) ask for reinforcements. That's not a problem, 50 000 true 'ethnic' Mongol troops sent by Ogedai would have solved all the troubles.

Hm.

We see that in OTL, the mongols conquered Hungary but still lost it when Ogedei died. They hadn't consolidated their hold and didn't have the troops to hold the region. Assuming the mongols can conquer more of Europe than OTL (I'm not super interested in having that particular debate yet again) wouldn't they still have to abandon it when Ogedei died later? Is there any possibility of a lasting Hungarian Khanate?
 
Hm.

We see that in OTL, the mongols conquered Hungary but still lost it when Ogedei died. They hadn't consolidated their hold and didn't have the troops to hold the region. Assuming the mongols can conquer more of Europe than OTL (I'm not super interested in having that particular debate yet again) wouldn't they still have to abandon it when Ogedei died later? Is there any possibility of a lasting Hungarian Khanate?
Hm, you are looking at it from a Europenian point of view - Hungarian Khanate etc.
Try to look at it from the Mongol point of view - Jouchi Ulus.
 
Hm, you are looking at it from a Europenian point of view - Hungarian Khanate etc.
Try to look at it from the Mongol point of view - Jouchi Ulus.

The center of power for the Jouchi Ulus is on the Volga river. If Hungary is held, geographical realities mean that it can't be ruled directly. There will be some kind of autonomous political unit in Hungary under loose Jochid authority. Call it what you like. In any case, my question still holds true. Can the mongols maintain their reign in Europe after Ogedei dies?
 
Uh, Mongol tradition didn't actually say everyone had to go back for the election. The worst that can happen (assuming no one breaks the rules) is those present hold a vote to start the election before all the guys who arrived late come.
 
The center of power for the Jouchi Ulus is on the Volga river. If Hungary is held, geographical realities mean that it can't be ruled directly. There will be some kind of autonomous political unit in Hungary under loose Jochid authority. Call it what you like.
The center of power for the Jouchi Ulus was on the Volga river in OTL. Because it was more or less the center of the Ulus.
With Hungary conquered, the center would have been somewhere in the Crimea, I guess.

In any case, my question still holds true. Can the mongols maintain their reign in Europe after Ogedei dies?
ye, sure
 
The center of power for the Jouchi Ulus was on the Volga river in OTL. Because it was more or less the center of the Ulus.
With Hungary conquered, the center would have been somewhere in the Crimea, I guess.


ye, sure

I don't think Hungary can be ruled from the Crimea but in any case, that's not the main question. How can the mongols maintain their reign in Europe after Ogedei dies? Hungary was conquered in OTL and it still needed to be abandoned. Wouldn't more territory just exacerbate the issue?
 
How can the mongols maintain their reign in Europe after Ogedei dies? Hungary was conquered in OTL and it still needed to be abandoned. Wouldn't more territory just exacerbate the issue?
Oh, I see your point.
You mean 'conquering is only the first step, but holding is harder'.
But the Mongols were probably the best empire-builders in the history of the human-kind; just look at this map, the Mongol Great Universal Khaans died and the elections of the new Khaan slowed down the expansion, but anyway it somehow proves that the Mongols were not only about raiding and looting, they were about 'maintaining their reign' as well:
MongolEmpireDivisions1300.png


In my previous posts in this thread I tried to explain that peculiarities of the inner politics of the Mongol World Empire and especially the Jouchi Ulus (the Golden Horde) made Europe safe from the further Mongol conquest. That was true in OTL at the moment of Ögedei Khan.
You see the Mongol Grand army in Europe was not for maintaining the Mongol reign in Europe, this army was for the conquest only, it was not for occupying; and this army was under direct command of the Great Universal Khaan.
So, the Great Khaan Ögedei dies - the Mongols say: "Fuck it! Let's go home! We gonna elect a new Great Khaan and see what his orders will be!"

Batu had to stay, as he was the head of the House of Jouchi and the Golden Horde was Ulus of Jouchi. Butu Khan had a handful of the Mongol ethnic troops and he moved into the centre of his Ulus to consolidate it. He did a great job, he preserved his Ulus in the most crucial moment, but lost a few territories in Europe.

Why do I repeat this again?
Because what was true for OTL 1241 (when Ögedei died) might become different if Ögedei had died in 1242 or in 1243; and the situation would have been dramatically different if Ögedei had died in 1251 (his father lived ten years longer than Ögedei).

If Ögedei lives a couple of years longer, than he (and his generals in place, especially Subudai) will see what we all see - Hungary is the ideal place for the nomads to 'maintain their reign' over Europe from there. The map of the Hungarian raids somehow proves this:
Kalandozasok.jpg


So the Mongols make Hungary their operational base, after thoroughly depopulating it. The Mongol Grand army would conquer Europe year after year.
But Hungary has to be populated, and 50 000 nomadic Cuman households are moved to Hungary to live there; they are given 2 000 (or so) of the 'ethnic Mongol' households to consolidate them; and these Cumans and Mongols are here to stay (that's the usual Mongol practice, standard steppe procedure for a millennia or so actually).

So if Ögedei dies a couple of years later in ATL (1243), some of the things might go the same as they went in OTL (1241) - the Mongol Grand Army says "Fuck it, let's go home!", Batu Khan stays to save his Ulus etc etc. But in ATL 1243 Hungury would have been already settled by the 'Cumano-Mongols' and the countries neighboring Hungary depopulated.
That's what make me think that Batu Khan would be able to keep Hungary in his Ulus.

And before you ask... if Ögedei had lived 10 years longer (like his father), Europe would have been properly conquered, the Mongol garrisons set in the strategic points etc etc, routine actually. As I said the Mongols were the best empire builders in the world, nothing extraordinary for them here.
 
There is no way that batu knew that ogedei had died when he drew back from hungary. Horses simply don't ride that fast to convey that information.

He withdrew due to bad weather to his homebase in the golden horde, which is when he'd have received the news.
 
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Just kill everyone in the cities any no one can come up with organized resistance. What are Hungarian FARMERS going to do? Wait for a nobleman to call them up as levies? Oh wait, most of the nobles would have been at court, which just got sacked.
 
Just kill everyone in the cities any no one can come up with organized resistance. What are Hungarian FARMERS going to do? Wait for a nobleman to call them up as levies? Oh wait, most of the nobles would have been at court, which just got sacked.

Well... that was not exactly how the european system worked, to conquer the land they needed to take the castles, not only the cities.
 
There is no way that batu knew that ogedei had died when he drew back from hungary. Horses simply don't ride that fact to convey that information.

He withdrew due to bad weather to his homebase in the golden horde, which is when he'd have received the news.

During this Western campaign the Mongols had some kind of homebase(s) in the place(s) where they felt at home - in steppe, usually not too far from the Grand Army.

That was the place where they might return and leave their wounded and sick (men and horses) and took the recovered and rested (men and horses); the Mongols also needed the place to store their loot, all these things might naturally slow down the Grand Army.

The Cuman steppe was just conquered and not totally pacified, so the Mongols needed to keep an eye on it as well; sometimes one of the Mongol armies had to come back into steppe to punish those non-Mongol nomads who misbehaved.

So the general pattern of this Mongol Western campaign was moving Mongol armies back into steppe on a regular basis; and then returning the armies back to actual conquering.
Back and forth motion.
 
There is no way that batu knew that ogedei had died when he drew back from hungary. Horses simply don't ride that fast to convey that information.

He withdrew due to bad weather to his homebase in the golden horde, which is when he'd have received the news.

They don't? I'm fairly sure the Yam courier system was at least as efficient as the American Pony Express which could cover 4000km in only 10 days. I'd be surprised if the Mongols couldn't match at least a sixth of that speed.
 
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