How can the mongols maintain their reign in Europe after Ogedei dies? Hungary was conquered in OTL and it still needed to be abandoned. Wouldn't more territory just exacerbate the issue?
Oh, I see your point.
You mean 'conquering is only the first step, but holding is harder'.
But the Mongols were probably the best empire-builders in the history of the human-kind; just look at this map, the Mongol Great Universal Khaans died and the elections of the new Khaan slowed down the expansion, but anyway it somehow proves that the Mongols were not only about raiding and looting, they were about '
maintaining their reign' as well:
In my previous posts in this thread I tried to explain that peculiarities of the inner politics of the Mongol World Empire and especially the Jouchi Ulus (the Golden Horde) made Europe safe from the further Mongol conquest. That was true in OTL at the moment of Ögedei Khan.
You see the Mongol Grand army in Europe was not for maintaining the Mongol reign in Europe, this army was for the conquest only, it was not for occupying; and this army was under direct command of the Great Universal Khaan.
So, the Great Khaan Ögedei dies - the Mongols say: "Fuck it! Let's go home! We gonna elect a new Great Khaan and see what
his orders will be!"
Batu had to stay, as he was the head of the House of Jouchi and the Golden Horde was Ulus of Jouchi. Butu Khan had a handful of the Mongol ethnic troops and he moved into the centre of his Ulus to consolidate it. He did a great job, he preserved his Ulus in the most crucial moment, but lost a few territories in Europe.
Why do I repeat this again?
Because what was true for OTL 1241 (when Ögedei died) might become different if Ögedei had died in 1242 or in 1243; and the situation would have been dramatically different if Ögedei had died in 1251 (his father lived ten years longer than Ögedei).
If Ögedei lives a couple of years longer, than he (and his generals in place, especially Subudai) will see what we all see - Hungary is the
ideal place for the nomads to 'maintain their reign' over Europe from there. The map of the Hungarian raids somehow proves this:
So the Mongols make Hungary their operational base, after thoroughly depopulating it. The Mongol Grand army would conquer Europe year after year.
But Hungary has to be populated, and 50 000 nomadic Cuman households are moved to Hungary to live there; they are given 2 000 (or so) of the 'ethnic Mongol' households to consolidate them; and these Cumans and Mongols are here to stay (that's the usual Mongol practice, standard steppe procedure for a millennia or so actually).
So if Ögedei dies a couple of years later in ATL (1243), some of the things might go the same as they went in OTL (1241) - the Mongol Grand Army says "Fuck it, let's go home!", Batu Khan stays to save his Ulus etc etc. But in ATL 1243 Hungury would have been already settled by the 'Cumano-Mongols' and the countries neighboring Hungary depopulated.
That's what make me think that Batu Khan would be able to keep Hungary in his Ulus.
And before you ask... if Ögedei had lived 10 years longer (like his father), Europe would have been properly conquered, the Mongol garrisons set in the strategic points etc etc, routine actually. As I said the Mongols were the best empire builders in the world, nothing extraordinary for them here.