WI stronger Italian armed forces in WW2

In both WW1 and WW2 the Italians got hammered. Unfortunately for the Italians Mussolini didn't see the need to reform his army. What if he's smarter? What if he decides otherwise early on?

POD:
Mussolini decides, remembering the humiliating Italian defeats in the Great War, that reform is necessary. In a speach in 1925 Mussolini declares that Italy must and will be strong again and that the glory of the Roman Empire shall be restored. The Roman Empire will be back and and the Med will become an Italian lake and Mussolini lets the entire world know about it.

The Italian army gets trucks, tanks, armored cars, proper rifles, good artillery and machinegun battalions. Part of it is imported. The other part comes from the Italian automobile and arms industry which is increasingly getting subsidized by the Italian government. The Italian army becomes more mechanized slowly but surely. Because of this the need for fuel increases dramatically in the following years. The oil company AGIP sees an opportunity and starts drilling for oil and gas reserves in the Po valley in the 20s and in Libya in 1930. A system of promotion by merit instead of seniority is introduced so that by the start of WW2 at least part of the Italian officers have functioning brain cells. Despite Mussolini's pride Italy also enlists the help of foreign military instructors to train Italian conscripts and to teach them how to use the new equipment. Afterwards Mussolini totally denies this ofcourse.

The airforce in the meantime gets rid of its biplanes and tri-engined planes by the early 30s. They also put and end to the Douhet doctrine shortly thereafter. For their fighters and dive bombers Italian engineers more or less copy German and British designs (for as far as that's possible). After seeing what the German airforce did in Spain, the Italians start experimenting with co-operation between the Regia Aeronautica (RA) and the Regia Esercito (RE) with moderate succes. The Italian airforce isn't quite as good in terms of tactics as the Luftwaffe but it's getting there. The Italians get their first practice in Ethiopia (which falls in four months ITTL). The Italian tanks are shown to be at a reasonable level. The artillery corps is equipped with new 105 mm guns as their standard gun, and they're fire support proves devastating to the weak Ethiopian army. At the same time Italian dive bombers for the first time get a chance to prove themselves. They provide tentative air support to the advancing Italian forces. That is also succesful. After the initial successes the Italian pilots become bolder and more agressive. The Ethiopians have no response to this sort of violence. Only ten days before the Ethiopian surrender Mussolini orders the use of chloride and mustard gas as a show of power. It wasn't really necessary. Ethiopia might have lasted a few days or a week longer if Italy hadn't used gas. The Italian forces get some more practice in Albania which falls in one day (even faster than IOTL). Both the army and the airforce send observers to Poland when Germany invades in 1939.

The navy didn't see much action in WW1. Many didn't see the need for reforms. Nevertheless Mussolini comes with the grand scheme of building a powerful navy which, he boasted, would one day rule the Mediteranean sea. Several new battleships, cruisers, destroyers, pocket battleships and submarines are build throughout the 20s and 30s. The biggest of these new vessels were the Littorio-class battleships. With their 41.177 tons they were a violation of the Washington Naval Treaty. In the late 30s and early 40s the navy starts putting radar on its ships thereby making the Regia Marina much more effective. The world doesn't protest but only watches with growing concern. The fleetplan ended with the construction of three carriers which were finished in early May 1940.

By 1939 Italy is almost bankrupt due to the reforms. WW2 comes as a good opportunity to get some much needed plunder which Italy can use to pay its debts.

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What happens next? Is this plausible? Any comments are welcome. I'll make changes if necessary. If this is possible, then what happens to WW2?
 
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I don't like that one. Germany is losing in that TL. I'd like to see them win (or at least get a conditional surrender) for a change. That TL only discusses wat happens up until june 1940. I want to discuss the entire course of the war. And the reforms in this TL are bigger. Instead of shrinking the Italian armed forces are growing. I don't think a stronger Italy would butterfly away the fact that Germany's strategy was unexpected (the tanks moving through the ardennes) or the fact that Germany got air superiority in France and the low countries. France and Britain conveniently ignored the increasing threat Germany was posing even after they saw what Germany could do in the Spanish civil war. Nothing could get them to pull their heads out of their asses. If I had been president of France I would have attacked during the remilitarization of the Rhineland in '35. Germany would have been beaten very quickly.

I don't see a stronger Italy changing that the events from April to May 1940 that much. If Italy and Germany and Italy work together, France might even be defeated sooner. Italy will probably jump on Tunisia and Algeria when it's clear that France is close to defeat instead of a doing a joint operation though. This Italian army could probably take Egypt on its own too. They outnumbered the British four to one. Lets say they succesfully invade Yugoslavia in 1939. Their numerical superiority will be smaller but it'll still be there. After that TTL's Regia Marina could attack Malta together with the Regia Aeronautica and invade it afterwards. Britain is more concerned about defending France and Britain itself by that time.
 
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Your right no amount of common sense could cause the Brits and French to pull there heads from there postiers , However you can have the best gee-whiz high tech toys around and if your troops don't rally want to fight your screwed regardless. Changing Italian equipment just doesn't change the fact that the troops didn't have there hearts in the fight. As for the Nazi's achieving a victory or negotiated peace your kidding right there is ZERO chance this happens
 
If Germany manages to keep America out of the war possibly by (symbolically) declaring war on Japan and avoiding certain mistakes made on the eastern front, Germany could have won.

see also this topic: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=98267&highlight=German+compromise+peace

And a few Italian victories might change the Italian will to fight. Italy could easily take on the French forces in Tunisia and Algeria ITTL maybe two or three weeks before the French surrender. The French will likely have other things on their minds by then. The defence of France will be considered more important than the defence of two colonies. Mussolini's propaganda machine will without a doubt present this as a major succes for the Italian army. The fact that there weren't that many French forces there will be ignored ofcourse. If the Italians are fast enough and capture the French fleet in Oran, things will get very interesting. Such things will likely boost Italian morale. The Italian colonial empire has almost doubled in size after all in a campaign of just two or three weeks.

The fact that Germany was beating the crap out of France at the same time will conveniently get little attention in Italian news papers ofcourse. Or it will be displayed as a joint effort while in fact the Italians jumped in when victory was ensured. Nevertheless the Italian army has at least done something ITTL. IOTL they got tiny territorial gains in southern France while they got a lot of ground ITTL. This stronger Italy could also demand the cession of Savoy and Nice to Italy which will be another boost for the Italian morale. The Italians have performed way better than IOTL. Major boost for morale :D.
 
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If Germany manages to keep America out of the war possibly by (symbolically) declaring war on Japan and avoiding certain mistakes made on the eastern front, Germany could have won....

I like your scenario. Very plausible (for me anyway). Anyway, I don't see anything like that happening between Japan and Germany. What I can see is Germany and Italy keeping Japan out of the Axis powers. That would have the same effect.
 
*bump*

You're reading this. There is bound to be someone who's interested.

The effect of a stronger Italy in WW2 could make operation Barbarossa very interesting. ITTL Italy can probably take care of Yugoslavia and Greece on its own. The German troops and equipment that were lost during the campaigns in Yugoslavia and Greece would still be available. There wouldn't be a German occupational force in those countries. Also the German transport planes and paratroopers that were lost in Crete wouldn't be lost. Those planes could ease the logistical situation on the eastern front. The Africa corps would also be smaller if it even exists. General Rommel, his Africa corps and the other forces mentioned above could be used in Russia. Italy could try to take Egypt and Malta too. If the Suez canal becomes Italian, then the only way into the Med will be past Gibraltar. When Malta falls that would make resupplying the Italians easier. If those two fall, then things wouln't look good for Britain. I wonder if TTL's Italian navy and airforce could demolish Gibraltar. If they can do that the Med becomes and Axis lake. After that Mussolini could support the Germans on the eastern front.

Because Italy can handle Yugoslavia and Greece on its own, operation Barbarossa won't be delayed. It can start in mid-May as planned instead of the 22nd of June. This could be significant. The muddy season started very early that year. With the extra time and the extra troops the Germans might be able to capture Moscow and Leningrad instead of grinding to a halt just short of both cities. That would be blow to Russian morale. Moscow was the USSRs central railway hub. Many railroads ended there. The fall of Moscow would have caused logistics to become problematic for the Soviets. If Stalin is in the city when it falls then things will become really problematic. He had killed many of his political opponents. There weren't many good succesors at the time. A power struggle would have ensued. If Stalingrad still occurs ITTL the Germans could relieve the city with the extra forces mentioned above. A succesful operation Citadel or the capture of the Baku oilfields are also possibilities.
 
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I like your scenario. Very plausible (for me anyway). Anyway, I don't see anything like that happening between Japan and Germany. What I can see is Germany and Italy keeping Japan out of the Axis powers. That would have the same effect.

Why not? Hitler viewed the Japanese inferior. He only allied with them because it seemed convenient at the time. And in my post I specifically said it would be a symbolic declaration of war. Hitler can probably only afford to send a few U-boats anyway. He might sends a few regiments too. In TTL that'll be easy since Italy controls the Suez canal by then. That will be enough to keep the Americans away. He could possibly ask the US to stop lend lease to the USSR which wasn't getting much at that time (and maybe Britain but that's probably not happening). Congress wil immediately take the deal. They decide what happens after all. Roosevelt isn't a dictator. They never supported Roosevelts private war anyway. They got into a European war once in a similar way (WW1). The result: thousands of dead American soldiers in France. Most congress members would much rather see a victorious Germany than a victorious Soviet Union.
 
Probably not. Italy faced several problems and lacked the aggressive spirit. There also seemed to be lack of ability to act as a team i.e no cooperation between the Regia Aeronautica and Regia Maria. Numerous acts of individual heroism but not a lot of systematic campaigns that lead to success. Their fuel was restricted by Germany

One of the problems may have been Mussolini and few people wanting to get killed for his glorification. There was no lack of courage by the partisans towards the end of the war but the partisans were fighting to kick the Germans (Tedeschi) out of their country.

At the start of Italian involvement they were the aggressors but Mussolini was probably hoping to gain the spoils of victory when Britain appeared to be finishedand not very successful. Italy was driven back by France held up in Greece and repelled in North Africa

Had Italy been attacked and someone else been in power things may have been different. In other words an unlikely scenario although more cooperation between the Regia Aeronautica and Regia Maria may have resulted in more success
 
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