WI: Stephen Harper becomes Reform Party Leader in 1996

One of the big interesting political dynamics in Canada in the 90s was the shadow rivalry between the various wings of the Reform Party of Canada.

You had the democratic populist wing led by party leader Preston Manning, who were interested in reforming Canada's political system with things like recall and referendum expansion, populist changes to compensation for public salaried workers and officials, and a general decentralization of confederation. This was a relatively non-ideological wing, and had a large number of former NDP and Liberal Western Canadians supporting it.

On the other hand, there was the social traditionalist wing of the party, exemplified by people like MPs Darrel Stinson and Myron Thompson, who wanted to challenge cultural issues and often were quite controversial about it, and certainly disliked by the media and political elites at the time for their often reactionary viewpoints.

And finally, you had the more Blue Tory fiscal conservatives, exemplified by MP Stephen Harper, who was Reform's policy director and chief national unity critic. This wing was committed to conservative economic ideology and was considered more moderate on cultural questions. It enjoyed more cordial relations with the media and Tory Party (what was left of it, at least) and was establishing links with Mike Harris's Ontario PC Party.

The things that tied them all together was western alienation, a desire for a tougher line on crime and more support for victims rights, and an opposition to the incessant focus on Quebec.

What happened in OTL was that the democratic populists and social traditionalists became more prevalent as time went on and Liberal Finance Minister Paul Martin largely listened to the suggestions of Reform's fiscal conservatives on tackling the deficit, meaning that their concerns became less prescient. This marginalized that wing of the party, and Reform became dominated more by non-economic issues, eventually leading to a leadership review in 1996 when Manning passed with flying colors, but Harper did not wholeheartedly endorse his leadership and shortly after, took a break from politics to head up a conservative nonprofit advocacy group.

How could this have changed, with Harper leading a coup to overthrow Manning as party leader? What would have been the politic implications? A merger with the PC Party? A better performance for Reform in Ontario in '97 and '00? Yet another right wing vote split?
 
yay canadian politics

Harper actually thought about running for the PC leadership in 1998 when Charest stepped down. Reportedly, there was also a movement to get rid of both Manning and Charest with Harper leading a united Conservative party.

To have an earlier Unite The Right merger, you’d likely need to remove Charest by either having him lose reelection in 1993 or being killed by the crazy Quebec separatist guy that tried to kill Chrétien. This would put Wayne into the leadership, who isn’t as popular or as moderate as Charest and is quite controversial. Alternatively, some David Orchard-like figure could take over if the Tories lose both their seats, which would piss off almost everyone in the PCs.

The new conservative party would likely reduce Chrétien to a minority in 1997, but many PC voters had the Liberals as their second choice and would support them over the former Reformist Harper. @lord caedus did a 2000 scenario (using second choice votes) with a merged party that results in Chrétien getting a bigger majority.

If Harper only leads a Reform Party, it doesn’t look good for them. Harper had a cold and wooden personality (shaking hands with his kids when they left school), and didn’t have the same following as Manning. Charest’s Tories definitely will get second in the popular vote, and it’s possible the Bloc even remains as the opposition. The Tories will likely win the right wing fight ITTL.
 
some ideas on what this universe could look like

1993-1998: Jean Chrétien (Liberal)
1993 (Majority): Lucien Bouchard (BQ), Preston Manning (Reform), Audrey McLaughlin (NDP), Brian Mulroney (PC)
1997 (Minority): Steve Harper (United), Gilles Duceppe (BQ), Lorne Nystrom (NDP)

1998-1999: Paul Martin (Liberal minority)
1999-2007: Steve Harper (United)
1999 (Majority): Paul Martin (Liberal), Gilles Duceppe (BQ), Lorne Nystrom (NDP)
2003 (Majority): Paul Martin (Liberal), Gilles Duceppe (BQ), Pat Martin (NDP)

2007-2014: Pierre Pettigrew (Liberal)
2007 (Minority): Steve Harper (United), Pat Martin (NDP), Gilles Duceppe (BQ), Ezra Levant (Western League)
2008 (Majority): Michael Fortier (United), Pat Martin (NDP), Gilles Duceppe (BQ), Ezra Levant (Western League)
2012 (Majority): Michael Fortier (United), Pat Martin (NDP), Gilles Duceppe (BQ), Ezra Levant (Western League)

2014-Present: Geoff Reagan (Liberal)
2016 (Majority): Gail Shea (United), Ezra Levant (Western League), Richard Nadeau (BQ), Pat Martin (NDP)

1993-2007: Jean Chrétien (Liberal)
1993 (Majority): Lucien Bouchard (BQ), Preston Manning (Reform), Audrey McLaughlin (NDP), Kim Campbell (PC)
1997 (Majority): Gilles Duceppe (BQ), Steve Harper (Reform), Jean Charest (PC), Alexa McDonough (NDP)
2001 (Majority): Jean Charest (PC), Deborah Gray (Reform), Gilles Duceppe (BQ), Alexa McDonough (NDP)
2005 (Majority): Jean Charest (PC), Alexa McDonough (NDP), Monte Solberg (Reform), Gilles Duceppe (BQ), Jim Harris (Green)
2007-2010: Gerry Bryne (Liberal majority)
2010-Present: André Bachand (PC)
2010 (Majority): Gerry Bryne (Liberal), Monte Solberg (Reform), Bill Blaikie (NDP), Gilles Duceppe (BQ), Jim Harris (Green)
2014 (Majority): Todd Russell (Liberal), Monte Solberg (Reform), Murray Rankin (NDP), Jim Harris (Green)
 
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