WI: Stephen Douglas Wins in 1860?

Wolfpaw

Banned
Question's on the tin. What if Stephen Douglas had won the presidency in the election of 1860. Does the South still bolt (my guess is "yes") or do we get a really uneasy "peace" for the next four years?
 
Since the only real scenario where Douglas can win involves some Southern support, I think...it probably means a Douglas who has become the kind of Democrat the South wants.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Perhaps if Benjamin Fitzpatrick accepts the VP slot that Douglas offered him? Or perhaps Alexander Stephens would be a good running-mate: he and Douglas more or less saw eye to eye on most things.

Or would a strong Southern VP (and a Cabinet likely dominated by Southerners and Westerners) not be enough? I know Douglas's major failings in the Fire-Eaters' eyes was his support of popular sovereignty, but is there any way for him to retain that policy along with Southern support?

I know he (or maybe it was Stephens) proposed invading Mexico (again) to get more slave states, but that always sounded sort of harebrained even for the Antebellum US.
 
Perhaps if Benjamin Fitzpatrick accepts the VP slot that Douglas offered him? Or perhaps Alexander Stephens would be a good running-mate: he and Douglas more or less saw eye to eye on most things.

Or would a strong Southern VP (and a Cabinet likely dominated by Southerners and Westerners) not be enough? I know Douglas's major failings in the Fire-Eaters' eyes was his support of popular sovereignty, but is there any way for him to retain that policy along with Southern support?

I know he (or maybe it was Stephens) proposed invading Mexico (again) to get more slave states, but that always sounded sort of harebrained even for the Antebellum US.

The problem is that southern support basically requires a pro-slavery Douglas, if not necessarily personally pro-slavery a candidate favorable to those aims.

Short of a POD well before 1860, obviously. This does not necessarily mean no Stephen Douglas candidacy, but it looks different than what you're asking about.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
What if Douglas had supported the Lecompton Constitution like so many other Democrats? Would that have been enough?
 
What if Douglas had supported the Lecompton Constitution like so many other Democrats? Would that have been enough?

Possibly. It would be the kind of thing necessary, certainly.

I'm not sure how far it would take to qualify, just that it has to appear that he's on their side.
 
Possibly. It would be the kind of thing necessary, certainly.

I'm not sure how far it would take to qualify, just that it has to appear that he's on their side.

If Douglas endorses LeCompton he's dead in the north. I don't even mean that he won't get enough Northern votes in 1860. I mean he very likely doesn't even get re-appointed to the Senate in 1858. I mean he loses his leadership role among northern democrats. And, anyway, Douglas endorsing Lecompton is pretty uncharacteristic. He was (1) politically savvy and (2) had talked himself into a genuine commitment to popular sovereignty, which la-di-dah-di-everybody know LeCompton wasn't.

What I think you need is the Democratic Party in the late 50s to work out a grand internal compromise where they will really accept popular sovereignty in the territories (which means no cheating in Kansas and tactily acknowledging that it is going to be free soil) in return for a full-throated, genuine commitment to expanding into Cuba and other Golden Rim locations. Even better* if they can work some kind of deal like this before Kansas-Nebraska.

*for Douglas and the Democrats. Pretty much hard lines on the slaves.
 
First of all, let's explain what IMHO is the most probable way for Douglas to win.
It starts with Lincoln doing a little worse - just enough to lose Illinois, Indiana and California (to Douglas, duh) and Oregon (to Breckinridge).
Together with the OTL New Jersey division, that makes it 149 EV for Lincoln (three short of a majority), 73 for Breckinridge, 39 for Bell and - surprise - 40 for Douglas. :D
Now we have the Congress choosing between Lincoln, Breckinridge and Douglas. And of the 33 states, 15 northerns basically have a choice of Lincoln and Douglas, 15 southerns of Breckinridge and Douglas and the rest (Illinois, California and Oregon) unlikely to vote for anyone but Douglas.
Yeah, on the first ballot it's 15-15-3. But after a few dozen ballots, President Douglas. :D:D


Now, with such a result, the entire Douglas term (however much of it there is - OTL he died in 1861, but that might well not happen) would be full of "stolen election" cries much stronger than either 2000 or 1876. :eek:
What would he do with it? No idea. ;)




...So what, how? ;);)
January First-of-May
 
Top