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Apparently in 1857, there was a real risk that Stephen Douglas was going to leave the Democratic Party and become a Republican. The trigger was when he broke with James Buchanan over the issue of Bleeding Kansas, and due to the formers perceived disloyalty, Buchanan went forward and pressured the Senate to take away most of Douglas's responsibilities. Many expected, with dread or with glee, that this would drive him into the arms of the Republicans.
Course, he remained loyal to the Democratic Party in the end.
However, for the sake of discussion, suppose he indeed jump ship and became a Republican. What would be the effects on not only his political career, but on the nation as a whole?